Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T22:10:18+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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16 0x165c…d943 crypto 579 markets active 1h ago coverage 118d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$2,107 (-31%) realized −$2,089 · open −$18
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -30% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -46% what you keep after slip
Net edge-46%after slip
Net WR25%break-even
Win rate30%169W / 393L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$12per market
Trades / day21.5pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit90%portable
Net worth$301now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 80% −$1,956
other 12% −$359
sports 3% +$33
world 1% +$124
politics 1% −$14
weather 1% −$5
economics 0% −$10
culture 0% −$6
tech 0% +$9
finance 0% +$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +25%
net ROI/market (all)-36.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d no closed markets
≤90d 36 +16.6% +5.5% 53% 44% -10.7%
all 562 -29.9% -36.6% 30% 25% -39.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover21.5 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -36.6% 25% -39.6%
10% ← realistic here -42.6% 24% -45.3%
15% -48.2% 22% -50.6%
20% -53.3% 18% -55.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 17% · top 2 28% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
15% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -30% · $-wt -33% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -25% → late -35% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
4.3 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$14 vs −$12 · ×1.19 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.52 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

118d coverage
Net worth$301
Realized−$2,089
Unrealized−$18
Win rate (resolved)30%
Wins / losses169 / 393
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions17
Markets (closed)562 / 579
History coverage118d
Avg bet$12
Trades / day21.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit90%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 17 History 562 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-25? Yes 25¢ 24¢ $196 $192 −$4 (-2%)
Microstrategy delisted from MSCI index by December 31? Yes 48¢ 42¢ $12 $10 −$1 (-11%)
Will Gold (GC) settle over $5,400 on the final trading day of June 2026? No 53¢ 100¢ $5 $9 +$4 (+88%)
Will Silver (SI) settle over $70 on the final trading day of June 2026? No 28¢ 99¢ $2 $8 +$6 (+253%)
Will Travis Scott have a #1 song on the Billboard Hot 100 in 2026? Yes 46¢ 40¢ $9 $8 −$1 (-13%)
Weed rescheduled by December 31? No 43¢ 74¢ $4 $7 +$3 (+73%)
Will Elon Musk go on Joe Rogan before June 30? No 56¢ 93¢ $4 $7 +$3 (+67%)
Huddle FDV above $10M one day after launch? No 60¢ 85¢ $4 $6 +$2 (+42%)
Will Justin Sun meet with Elon Musk in 2026? No 63¢ 77¢ $5 $6 +$1 (+23%)
Will South African inflation be between 4.1% and 4.4% in 2026? Yes 38¢ 39¢ $4 $4 +$0 (+2%)
Will OpenAI announce earbuds or headphones in 2026? Yes 48¢ 35¢ $4 $3 −$1 (-27%)
Will Justin Sun meet with Elon Musk in 2026? Yes 34¢ 23¢ $5 $3 −$2 (-34%)
Microstrategy delisted from MSCI index by December 31? No 62¢ 57¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-7%)
Huddle FDV above $10M one day after launch? Yes 36¢ 15¢ $7 $3 −$4 (-58%)
Will Spark launch a token by December 31, 2026? Yes 56¢ 14¢ $11 $3 −$8 (-76%)
Will Treg Taylor advance from the 2026 Alaska Governor primary election? Yes 48¢ 25¢ $4 $2 −$2 (-48%)
Will Stephen Miller leave the Trump administration before 2027? Yes 20¢ 20¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+0%)
Will Elon Musk go on Joe Rogan before June 30? Yes 41¢ 7¢ $8 $1 −$7 (-84%)
Huddle FDV above $50M one day after launch? Yes 14¢ 14¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-4%)
Will Tempo launch a token by September 30, 2026? Yes 40¢ 10¢ $2 $1 −$2 (-74%)
Will Ari Weinstein leave OpenAI by December 31, 2026? Yes 24¢ 12¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-48%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 64 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Israel be in the top 3 at Eurovision 2026? May 17 $76 +$124 +163%
Will Albania be in the top 10 at Eurovision 2026? May 16 $95 −$92 -97%
Will Norway be in the top 10 at Eurovision 2026? May 16 $52 −$52 -100%
CBB mindshare all time high by March 31? May 16 $5 $0 +0%
Will Francis Mauigoa be the third pick in the 2026 NFL draft? May 16 $3 +$2 +79%
Will Cason Wallace lead the NBA in steals during the 2025–26 NBA seaso May 16 $3 +$2 +92%
Will the New York Knicks win more than 53.5 regular season games in 20 May 16 $10 −$1 -13%
Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 4.5% before 2027? May 16 $4 +$7 +158%
mert mindshare all time high by March 31? May 16 $9 +$11 +116%
Will the Republican Party win the FL-22 House seat? Apr 27 $10 $0 +2%
Will AEK Athens win the 2025-26 UEFA Europa Conference League? Apr 16 $10 −$9 -87%
Will Georgia advance through the first Eurovision Semi-Final? Apr 11 $2 −$2 -100%
2026 U.S. Senate Election: Republican Odds over 80% by March 31? Apr 09 $5 $0 +0%
Sisyphus mindshare all time high by March 31? Apr 09 $10 −$5 -51%
Will the Small Exchange self-certify sports event contracts by March 3 Apr 09 $10 $0 +0%
Will The Clearing Company self-certify sports event contracts by March Apr 09 $10 $0 +0%
Will Cboe Futures Exchange self-certify sports event contracts by Marc Apr 09 $15 $0 +0%
Will Powell say "Dollar" 2+ times during March press conference? Apr 09 $26 −$9 -34%
Will "Chalamet" be said 5+ times at the Oscars? Apr 09 $9 +$1 +9%
Baltimore Orioles vs. Atlanta Braves Apr 09 $2 +$1 +25%
Will Jamaica qualify for the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 09 $2 +$3 +108%
Will the maximum Arctic sea ice extent this winter be between 14.4m & Apr 09 $14 −$9 -64%
Will Intercontinental Exchange self-certify sports event contracts by Apr 09 $5 $0 +0%
Will Oklahoma win the 2026 Women's NCAA Tournament? Apr 09 $4 +$1 +30%
Will LSU win the 2026 Women's NCAA Tournament? Apr 09 $4 +$1 +32%
Will LedgerX self-certify sports event contracts by March 31, 2026? Apr 09 $10 +$2 +23%
Will Amazon reach $224 in March? Apr 09 $8 +$1 +15%
Will Palantir (PLTR) close above $138 end of March? Apr 09 $8 +$5 +56%
Taliban blackmail of D.C. shooter confirmed by March 31? Apr 09 $7 +$4 +58%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs TheMongolz - Map 1 Winner Apr 09 $4 +$6 +142%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs NIP - Map 2 Winner Apr 09 $4 +$7 +154%
Will the maximum Arctic sea ice extent this winter be between 14.2m & Apr 09 $17 −$2 -12%
Will Tesla reach $420 in March? Apr 09 $10 +$10 +107%
Will the Denver Nuggets win more than 53.5 regular season games in 202 Apr 08 $3 −$3 -100%
CZ mindshare all time high by March 31? Apr 04 $10 −$10 -100%
Will The Weeknd have a #1 song on the Billboard Hot 100 in 2026? Mar 30 $2 $0 +3%
Will Juntos por el Perú (JP) win the most seats in the 2026 Peruvian S Mar 27 $7 +$3 +36%
Will Fuerza Popular (FP) win the most seats in the 2026 Peruvian Senat Mar 26 $4 −$4 -100%
Solstice FDV above $50M one day after launch? Mar 18 $2 −$2 -100%
Will NYC have less than 2 inches of precipitation in March? Mar 17 $2 $0 +14%
Will Emma Stone win Best Actress at the 98th Academy Awards? Mar 16 $0 $0 -100%
Will Renate Reinsve win Best Actress at the 98th Academy Awards? Mar 15 $0 $0 -100%
Will Train Dreams win Best Adapted Screenplay at the 98th Academy Awar Mar 15 $0 $0 -100%
Will Kate Hudson win Best Actress at the 98th Academy Awards? Mar 15 $0 $0 -100%
Will Frankenstein win Best Adapted Screenplay at the 98th Academy Awar Mar 15 $0 $0 -100%
Will Blue Moon win Best Original Screenplay at the 98th Academy Awards Mar 15 $0 $0 -100%
Will Dogecoin reach $0.40 by December 31, 2026? Mar 14 $2 $0 +8%
Nuggets vs. Grizzlies: O/U 224.5 Mar 14 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the March 2026 m Mar 14 $0 $0 -100%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the March 2026 me Mar 13 $0 $0 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 25¢ $201 1h
Will Albania be in the top 10 at Eurovision 2026? BUY Yes 34¢ $95 40d
Will Norway be in the top 10 at Eurovision 2026? BUY Yes 13¢ $0 40d
Will Norway be in the top 10 at Eurovision 2026? BUY Yes 13¢ $2 40d
Will Norway be in the top 10 at Eurovision 2026? BUY Yes 13¢ $5 40d
Will Norway be in the top 10 at Eurovision 2026? BUY Yes 13¢ $2 40d
Will Norway be in the top 10 at Eurovision 2026? BUY Yes 13¢ $13 40d
Will Norway be in the top 10 at Eurovision 2026? BUY Yes 13¢ $1 40d
Will Norway be in the top 10 at Eurovision 2026? BUY Yes 13¢ $28 40d
Will Norway be in the top 10 at Eurovision 2026? BUY Yes 13¢ $1 40d
Will Israel be in the top 3 at Eurovision 2026? BUY Yes 38¢ $70 40d
Will Israel be in the top 3 at Eurovision 2026? BUY Yes 38¢ $2 40d
Will Israel be in the top 3 at Eurovision 2026? BUY Yes 38¢ $2 40d
Will Israel be in the top 3 at Eurovision 2026? BUY Yes 38¢ $2 40d
Will the Republican Party win the FL-22 House seat? SELL Yes 50¢ $10 59d
Will Ari Weinstein leave OpenAI by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 25¢ $1 64d
Will AEK Athens win the 2025-26 UEFA Europa Conference League? SELL Yes 19¢ $1 70d
Will Georgia advance through the first Eurovision Semi-Final? BUY Yes 42¢ $2 75d
Will the Denver Nuggets win more than 53.5 regular season games in 202 BUY No 62¢ $3 78d
CZ mindshare all time high by March 31? BUY No 38¢ $2 82d
CZ mindshare all time high by March 31? BUY No 44¢ $2 82d
CZ mindshare all time high by March 31? BUY No 48¢ $2 82d
CZ mindshare all time high by March 31? BUY No 74¢ $4 82d
Will Francis Mauigoa be the third pick in the 2026 NFL draft? BUY No 56¢ $3 83d
Will Spark launch a token by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 45¢ $2 84d
Will Stephen Miller leave the Trump administration before 2027? BUY Yes 20¢ $2 85d
Sisyphus mindshare all time high by March 31? BUY No 49¢ $2 85d
Sisyphus mindshare all time high by March 31? BUY No 56¢ $3 85d
Will Spark launch a token by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 51¢ $3 86d
Will Spark launch a token by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 54¢ $3 86d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $301.02 · official $300.91 (match) · 3242 history records