Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T12:10:42+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
16 0x1659…63e8 weather 720 markets active 2h ago coverage 232d
TRAPdo not copy weather specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$275 (+4%) realized +$276 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR8%break-even
Win rate95%680W / 34L
Drawdown2%max
Avg bet$10per market
Trades / day6.1pace
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$92now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$3
7 days+$7
14 days+$13
30 days+$45
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 99% +$263
other 1% +$4
tech 0% +$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +8%
net ROI/market (all)-5.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 23 +2.3% -7.4% 100% 4% -7.6%
≤30d 121 +1.9% -7.8% 98% 3% -6.9%
≤90d 380 +2.4% -7.4% 96% 2% -7.2%
all 714 +4.3% -5.7% 95% 8% -6.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.1 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -5.7% 8% -6.1%
10% -14.7% 2% -15.1%
15% -22.9% 1% -23.3%
20% -30.5% 1% -30.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 5% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
92% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +4% · $-wt +4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +6% → late +2% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.37 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×10.19 per $1 lost it wins $10.19
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

232d coverage
Net worth$92
Realized+$276
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)95%
Wins / losses680 / 34
Open positions6
Markets (closed)714 / 720
History coverage232d
Avg bet$10
Trades / day6.1
Drawdown2%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 714 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 76-77°F on June 19? No 99¢ 100¢ $40 $40 +$0 (+1%)
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-22? No 97¢ 97¢ $19 $19 −$0 (-0%)
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 76-77°F on June 19? No 98¢ 98¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-0%)
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 74-75°F on June 19? No 99¢ 98¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-23? No 91¢ 94¢ $9 $9 +$0 (+3%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 8¢ 7¢ $5 $4 −$1 (-22%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 80-81°F on June 17? Jun 18 $7 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 100-101°F on June 17 Jun 18 $19 +$1 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 82-83°F on June 17? Jun 18 $10 $0 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 86-87°F on June 17? Jun 18 $10 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 90-91°F on June 17? Jun 18 $10 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 17°C on June 17? Jun 18 $10 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be 65°F or below on June Jun 17 $8 $0 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 78-79°F on June Jun 17 $30 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 82-83°F on June 16? Jun 17 $13 $0 +1%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $6 +$1 +13%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $7 $0 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 96-97°F on June 12? Jun 13 $10 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 84-85°F on Ju Jun 13 $38 +$1 +2%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be 86°F or higher on Jun Jun 13 $31 +$1 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 70-71°F on June Jun 13 $21 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 66-67°F on June 12? Jun 13 $20 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 98-99°F on June 12? Jun 13 $4 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be 100°F or higher on Ju Jun 13 $10 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 70-71°F on June 11? Jun 12 $10 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be 94°F or higher on June 11? Jun 12 $20 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 96-97°F on June 11? Jun 12 $10 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 98-99°F on Ju Jun 12 $16 +$1 +3%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 100-101°F on Jun 12 $20 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 72-73°F on Ju Jun 11 $5 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be 83°F or below on June 9? Jun 11 $10 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 86-87°F on Ju Jun 11 $15 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be 83°F or below on June 10? Jun 11 $16 +$1 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 98-99°F on June 9? Jun 11 $20 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 58-59°F on June 10? Jun 11 $20 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 80-81°F on June Jun 11 $25 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 58-59°F on April 29 Jun 10 $1 −$1 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 66-67°F on June Jun 10 $10 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 76-77°F on June 9? Jun 10 $10 $0 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 98-99°F on June 9? Jun 10 $10 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 98-99°F on June 9? Jun 10 $11 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 58-59°F on Ju Jun 09 $7 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 52-53°F on June 8? Jun 09 $10 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 72-73°F on June 8? Jun 09 $10 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 78-79°F on June Jun 09 $10 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 78-79°F on June Jun 08 $10 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 70-71°F on June 7? Jun 08 $10 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 82-83°F on June 7? Jun 08 $15 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 86-87°F on June 7? Jun 08 $33 +$1 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 76-77°F on June 7? Jun 08 $29 +$1 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 78-79°F on June 6? Jun 07 $10 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 78-79°F on June 6? Jun 07 $15 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 76-77°F on June 6? Jun 07 $20 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be 51°F or below on June 6? Jun 07 $29 +$1 +2%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be 100°F or higher on Ju Jun 07 $30 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 76-77°F on June 6? Jun 07 $30 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 76-77°F on June BUY No 99¢ $40 1h
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 74-75°F on Ju BUY No 99¢ $10 1h
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 76-77°F on Ju BUY No 98¢ $10 2h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-23? BUY No 91¢ $9 11h
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-22? BUY No 97¢ $19 11h
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 82-83°F on June 17? BUY No 97¢ $4 22h
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 82-83°F on June 17? BUY No 97¢ $6 31h
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 100-101°F on June 17 BUY No 93¢ $5 36h
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 100-101°F on June 17 BUY No 95¢ $5 38h
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 80-81°F on June 17? BUY No 99¢ $7 2d
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 17°C on June 17? BUY No 99¢ $10 2d
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 100-101°F on June 17 BUY No 96¢ $10 2d
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 86-87°F on June 17? BUY No 99¢ $10 2d
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 90-91°F on June 17? BUY No 98¢ $10 2d
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 88¢ $6 2d
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 96¢ $7 2d
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be 65°F or below on June BUY No 97¢ $8 3d
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 78-79°F on June BUY No 99¢ $30 3d
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 82-83°F on June 16? BUY No 99¢ $13 3d
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 96-97°F on June 12? BUY No 99¢ $10 5d
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 84-85°F on Ju SELL No 93¢ $5 5d
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 84-85°F on Ju SELL No 93¢ $5 5d
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 84-85°F on Ju SELL No 87¢ $4 5d
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be 86°F or higher on Jun BUY No 95¢ $5 5d
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 84-85°F on Ju BUY No 87¢ $4 5d
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 84-85°F on Ju BUY No 89¢ $4 6d
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 84-85°F on Ju BUY No 91¢ $5 6d
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be 86°F or higher on Jun BUY No 96¢ $5 6d
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be 86°F or higher on Jun BUY No 96¢ $7 6d
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be 86°F or higher on Jun BUY No 98¢ $15 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $92.27 · official $92.27 (match) · 2027 history records