Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T11:08:29+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
16 0x1658…d10e other 10 markets active 7h ago coverage 15d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL +$10,602 (+12%) realized −$9,645 · open +$20,247
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -52% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -67% what you keep after slip
Net edge-67%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate12%1W / 7L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$8,542per market
Trades / day26.6pace
Fees−$61est.
Kalshi-fit30%portable
Net worth$46,806now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$6,383
7 days−$11,803
14 days−$12,158
30 days−$12,158
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 80% +$10,683
crypto 18% −$253
sports 3% −$2,340
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-57.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 -45.6% -50.8% 14% 0% -28.0%
≤30d 8 -52.4% -57.0% 12% 0% -28.5%
≤90d 8 -52.4% -57.0% 12% 0% -28.5%
all 8 -52.4% -57.0% 12% 0% -28.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover26.6 tr/day
realistic slip~18%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -57.0% 0% -28.5%
10% -61.1% 0% -35.3%
15% ← realistic here -64.8% 0% -41.6%
20% -68.3% 0% -47.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -21% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -52% · $-wt -21% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
39.3 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$561 vs −$1,817 · ×0.31 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.04 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

15d coverage
Net worth$46,806
Realized−$9,645
Unrealized+$20,247
Win rate (resolved)12%
Wins / losses1 / 7
Est. fees paid−$61
Open positions2
Markets (closed)8 / 10
History coverage15d
Avg bet$8,542
Trades / day26.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit30%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 8 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 3¢ $12,000 $32,500 +$20,500 (+171%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 4¢ 4¢ $14,559 $14,306 −$253 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 20 $19,999 −$3,241 -16%
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $1,157 −$1,125 -97%
Will Brazil vs. Haiti end in a draw? Jun 20 $2,000 −$1,986 -99%
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 19 $7,108 −$32 -0%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 18 $6,397 +$561 +9%
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 18 $17,099 −$1,982 -12%
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $4,000 −$4,000 -100%
Will Jalen Brunson win the 2026 NBA Finals MVP? Jun 11 $355 −$355 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 2¢ $6 6h
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 2¢ $16,752 6h
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 4¢ $1,157 10h
Will Brazil vs. Haiti end in a draw? BUY Yes 8¢ $69 10h
Will Brazil vs. Haiti end in a draw? BUY Yes 8¢ $204 10h
Will Brazil vs. Haiti end in a draw? BUY Yes 8¢ $204 10h
Will Brazil vs. Haiti end in a draw? BUY Yes 8¢ $4 10h
Will Brazil vs. Haiti end in a draw? BUY Yes 8¢ $204 10h
Will Brazil vs. Haiti end in a draw? BUY Yes 8¢ $0 10h
Will Brazil vs. Haiti end in a draw? BUY Yes 8¢ $0 10h
Will Brazil vs. Haiti end in a draw? BUY Yes 8¢ $0 10h
Will Brazil vs. Haiti end in a draw? BUY Yes 8¢ $0 10h
Will Brazil vs. Haiti end in a draw? BUY Yes 8¢ $0 10h
Will Brazil vs. Haiti end in a draw? BUY Yes 8¢ $0 10h
Will Brazil vs. Haiti end in a draw? BUY Yes 8¢ $2 10h
Will Brazil vs. Haiti end in a draw? BUY Yes 8¢ $0 10h
Will Brazil vs. Haiti end in a draw? BUY Yes 8¢ $5 10h
Will Brazil vs. Haiti end in a draw? BUY Yes 8¢ $0 10h
Will Brazil vs. Haiti end in a draw? BUY Yes 8¢ $0 10h
Will Brazil vs. Haiti end in a draw? BUY Yes 8¢ $0 10h
Will Brazil vs. Haiti end in a draw? BUY Yes 8¢ $759 10h
Will Brazil vs. Haiti end in a draw? BUY Yes 8¢ $5 10h
Will Brazil vs. Haiti end in a draw? BUY Yes 8¢ $0 10h
Will Brazil vs. Haiti end in a draw? BUY Yes 8¢ $543 10h
Will Brazil vs. Haiti end in a draw? BUY Yes 8¢ $1 10h
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 1¢ $3,395 11h
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 1¢ $3,681 29h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 18¢ $6,958 2d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 14¢ $6,787 2d
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 8¢ $35 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $46,806.38 · official $46,806.38 (match) · 420 history records