Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T00:44:56+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
16 0x1657…0ef4 crypto 86 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (192 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL +$114 (+5%) realized +$114 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -28% what you keep after slip
Net edge-28%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate65%55W / 30L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$26per market
Trades / day191.8pace
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$125
other 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (192 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)-14.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 85 -5.9% -14.9% 65% 33% -15.0%
≤30d 85 -5.9% -14.9% 65% 33% -15.0%
≤90d 85 -5.9% -14.9% 65% 33% -15.0%
all 85 -5.9% -14.9% 65% 33% -15.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover191.8 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -14.9% 33% -15.0%
10% ← realistic here -23.0% 21% -23.1%
15% -30.5% 14% -30.6%
20% -37.3% 12% -37.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 20% · top 2 34% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -6% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
44% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -2% → late -9% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$13 · ×0.37 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.68 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$114
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)65%
Wins / losses55 / 30
Open positions0
Markets (closed)85 / 86
History coverage1d
Avg bet$26
Trades / day191.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 85 Trades
no open positions (10 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET Jun 26 $2 $0 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Jun 26 $14 −$5 -37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Jun 26 $6 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET Jun 26 $25 −$1 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Jun 26 $28 −$11 -38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Jun 26 $61 −$21 -35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET Jun 26 $64 −$19 -30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Jun 26 $111 −$34 -31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Jun 26 $242 −$113 -47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Jun 26 $206 +$5 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Jun 26 $113 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Jun 26 $93 +$14 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Jun 26 $160 −$10 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Jun 26 $78 +$38 +49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 26 $52 +$11 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 26 $52 −$4 -7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 26 $52 +$53 +101%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 26 $51 −$50 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Jun 26 $52 +$4 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 26 $16 −$15 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 26 $15 +$3 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 26 $16 −$15 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 26 $3 −$3 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 26 $51 +$29 +56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 26 $15 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 26 $10 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 26 $5 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 26 $29 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 26 $5 −$3 -68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 26 $5 −$1 -14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 26 $5 +$2 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Jun 26 $31 +$38 +125%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Jun 26 $15 +$4 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Jun 26 $15 +$4 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 26 $20 +$4 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 26 $9 +$3 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 26 $20 −$3 -16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 26 $8 +$4 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 26 $8 +$2 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 26 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 26 $2 $0 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 26 $20 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 26 $20 +$2 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 26 $13 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 26 $14 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 26 $7 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 26 $4 +$1 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 26 $1 $0 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 26 $2 $0 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 26 $2 −$2 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET SELL Down 59¢ $2 47m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET BUY Down 56¢ $2 48m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET BUY Down 70¢ $3 51m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET BUY Down 70¢ $3 51m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET SELL Down 73¢ $7 52m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET BUY Down 61¢ $3 52m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET BUY Down 70¢ $3 53m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET SELL Up 32¢ $1 53m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET BUY Up 43¢ $2 54m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET SELL Up 63¢ $0 57m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET SELL Up 63¢ $2 57m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET BUY Up 53¢ $2 57m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET SELL Down 48¢ $3 57m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET BUY Down 30¢ $2 58m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET SELL Down 31¢ $1 58m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET BUY Down 45¢ $2 59m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET SELL Up 85¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET BUY Up 77¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET SELL Up 68¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET BUY Up 73¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET SELL Down 60¢ $6 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET BUY Down 60¢ $6 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET SELL Down 54¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET SELL Down 55¢ $6 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET BUY Down 53¢ $6 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET SELL Up 48¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET SELL Up 46¢ $6 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET BUY Up 46¢ $0 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET BUY Up 46¢ $6 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET SELL Down 15¢ $3 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 282 history records