Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T10:41:00+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
16 0x1657…9323 crypto 1411 markets active 0h ago coverage 109d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$608 (-1%) realized −$608 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -12% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -27% what you keep after slip
Net edge-27%after slip
Net WR11%break-even
Win rate71%1002W / 409L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$60per market
Trades / day18.6pace
Fees−$6est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$123
7 days+$48
14 days+$157
30 days−$176
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 99% −$169
sports 1% −$496
world 0% −$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +11%
net ROI/market (all)-20.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 111 +0.3% -9.2% 98% 2% -9.4%
≤30d 470 -0.2% -9.7% 98% 1% -9.7%
≤90d 1410 -12.1% -20.4% 71% 11% -10.3%
all 1411 -12.1% -20.5% 71% 11% -10.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover18.6 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -20.5% 11% -10.3%
10% -28.1% 8% -18.9%
15% -35.0% 6% -26.7%
20% -41.4% 4% -33.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 6% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
84% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -12% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -9% → late -15% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$5 · ×0.28 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.67 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

109d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$608
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)71%
Wins / losses1002 / 409
Est. fees paid−$6
Open positions0
Markets (closed)1411 / 1411
History coverage109d
Avg bet$60
Trades / day18.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 1411 Trades
no open positions (222 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET Jun 17 $415 +$4 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET Jun 17 $411 +$4 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET Jun 17 $407 +$4 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET Jun 17 $403 +$4 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET Jun 17 $399 +$4 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET Jun 16 $401 +$4 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET Jun 16 $397 +$4 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET Jun 16 $393 +$4 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET Jun 16 $15 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET Jun 16 $389 +$4 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET Jun 16 $386 +$3 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET Jun 16 $382 +$4 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET Jun 16 $378 +$4 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET Jun 16 $374 +$4 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET Jun 16 $372 +$3 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET Jun 16 $368 +$3 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET Jun 16 $364 +$4 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET Jun 16 $460 +$4 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET Jun 16 $455 +$5 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET Jun 16 $452 +$4 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET Jun 16 $446 +$5 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET Jun 16 $443 +$4 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET Jun 16 $439 +$4 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET Jun 15 $434 +$4 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET Jun 15 $430 +$4 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET Jun 15 $426 +$4 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET Jun 15 $422 +$4 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET Jun 15 $418 +$4 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET Jun 15 $414 +$4 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET Jun 15 $410 +$4 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET Jun 15 $406 +$4 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET Jun 15 $402 +$4 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET Jun 15 $398 +$4 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET Jun 15 $394 +$4 +1%
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca Jun 15 $385 −$372 -97%
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $51 +$57 +113%
UFC Freedom 250: Aiemann Zahabi vs. Sean O'Malley (Bantamweight, Main Jun 15 $176 +$19 +11%
UFC Freedom 250: Michael Chandler vs. Mauricio Ruffy (Lightweight, Mai Jun 15 $150 +$9 +6%
UFC Freedom 250: Derrick Lewis vs. Josh Hokit (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $10 −$10 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET Jun 15 $394 +$4 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET Jun 14 $390 +$4 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET Jun 14 $128 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET Jun 14 $378 +$7 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET Jun 14 $378 +$4 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET Jun 14 $374 +$4 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET Jun 14 $372 +$3 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET Jun 14 $368 +$3 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET Jun 14 $364 +$4 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET Jun 14 $360 +$4 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET Jun 14 $356 +$4 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $415 11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $131 41m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $280 41m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $407 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $403 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $399 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $401 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $397 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $393 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $15 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $61 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $328 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET SELL Up 100¢ $390 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $64 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $322 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $382 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $110 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $268 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $2 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $5 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $60 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $5 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $297 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $5 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $372 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $368 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $364 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $84 23h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $376 23h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $66 27h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3140 history records