Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T08:13:00+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
16 0x1657…1beb world 80 markets active 1h ago coverage 536d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$9 (-0%) realized −$9 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +21% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +9% what you keep after slip
Net edge+9%after slip
Net WR5%break-even
Win rate39%31W / 48L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$43per market
Trades / day0.9pace
Fees−$10est.
Kalshi-fit80%portable
Net worth$50now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days+$5
14 days+$3
30 days−$4
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 55% −$4
other 16% +$1
politics 12% −$1
sports 12% −$6
economics 3% −$1
finance 1% $0
crypto 0% +$2
tech 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +5%
net ROI/market (all)+9.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 +0.4% -9.2% 50% 0% -8.2%
≤30d 29 +0.7% -8.9% 31% 3% -9.7%
≤90d 72 +22.3% +10.7% 35% 4% -9.6%
all 79 +20.7% +9.2% 39% 5% -9.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +9.2% 5% -9.8%
10% -1.3% 4% -18.4%
15% -10.8% 3% -26.3%
20% -19.5% 3% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 24% · top 2 37% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
87% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +21% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +41% → late +1% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
2.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×0.65 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.72 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

536d coverage
Net worth$50
Realized−$9
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)39%
Wins / losses31 / 48
Est. fees paid−$10
Open positions1
Markets (closed)79 / 80
History coverage536d
Avg bet$43
Trades / day0.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit80%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 79 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? No 68¢ 68¢ $50 $50 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? Jun 23 $10 $0 +0%
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 23 $53 −$1 -1%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 21 $138 +$5 +4%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 19 $61 $0 +0%
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 19 $34 $0 -1%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? Jun 19 $45 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 14 $123 −$2 -2%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 13 $3 $0 -5%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 12 $12 $0 -1%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 12 $46 $0 -1%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 12 $41 $0 -0%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? Jun 11 $46 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? Jun 10 $28 +$2 +6%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 06 $62 $0 -0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 06 $163 −$6 -4%
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? Jun 05 $2 $0 +0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 05 $192 −$2 -1%
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? Jun 05 $42 $0 +0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 04 $111 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 03 $35 $0 +0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 01 $23 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 01 $9 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? Jun 01 $49 −$1 -1%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? May 31 $5 +$1 +24%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 29 $7 $0 +4%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? May 28 $71 +$3 +4%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? May 28 $52 −$7 -13%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? May 26 $88 +$2 +2%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? May 25 $38 +$2 +5%
Iran leadership change by June 30? May 23 $12 −$1 -6%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? May 21 $54 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 21 $28 +$3 +9%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 20 $46 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma May 19 $4 $0 -4%
Will New People (NL) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamen May 16 $63 $0 -0%
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab May 16 $46 $0 +0%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 26 $48 $0 +0%
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 26 $3 $0 +0%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 26 $164 $0 +0%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 26 $1 $0 +19%
Starmer out by April 30, 2026? Apr 25 $74 $0 +0%
Will Joao Fonseca win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 24 $1 $0 +9%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 23 $53 $0 +0%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 22 $127 +$1 +1%
Will Lorenzo Musetti win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 22 $45 $0 +0%
Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 21 $104 $0 -0%
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 21 $60 $0 +0%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 19 $44 $0 +0%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 18 $110 $0 -0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 30? Apr 18 $16 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY No 68¢ $50 1h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? SELL Yes 14¢ $10 10h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? BUY Yes 14¢ $5 12h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? BUY Yes 14¢ $1 12h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? BUY Yes 14¢ $4 12h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 16¢ $8 26h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 16¢ $8 28h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 52¢ $45 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 52¢ $10 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 52¢ $31 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 52¢ $4 3d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL Yes 26¢ $8 3d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL Yes 26¢ $1 3d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY Yes 27¢ $0 3d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY Yes 27¢ $9 3d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 94¢ $13 4d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 94¢ $7 4d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 92¢ $20 4d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL Yes 8¢ $3 5d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY Yes 8¢ $1 5d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY Yes 8¢ $1 5d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? SELL No 72¢ $39 5d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? SELL No 72¢ $4 5d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? SELL No 72¢ $2 5d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? BUY No 72¢ $45 5d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 86¢ $9 5d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 86¢ $13 5d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 86¢ $23 5d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 87¢ $45 5d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 91¢ $16 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $50.01 · official $50.01 (match) · 483 history records