Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T21:52:31+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
16 0x164e…638a sports 4 markets active 1h ago coverage 5d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$30 (-51%) realized −$30 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -55% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -60% what you keep after slip
Net edge-60%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate33%1W / 2L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$15per market
Trades / day0.9pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit75%portable
Net worth$10now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 5d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 49% −$4
world 34% −$20
other 17% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)-59.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -55.4% -59.6% 33% 33% -52.8%
≤30d 3 -55.4% -59.6% 33% 33% -52.8%
≤90d 3 -55.4% -59.6% 33% 33% -52.8%
all 3 -55.4% -59.6% 33% 33% -52.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -59.6% 33% -52.8%
10% -63.5% 33% -57.3%
15% -67.0% 0% -61.4%
20% -70.2% 0% -65.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -48% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -55% · $-wt -48% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$15 · ×0.43 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.22 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

5d coverage
Net worth$10
Realized−$30
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)33%
Wins / losses1 / 2
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)3 / 4
History coverage5d
Avg bet$15
Trades / day0.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit75%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 3 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Senegal advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 69¢ 68¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Jun 18 $19 +$6 +34%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo Jun 17 $10 −$10 -98%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 13 $20 −$20 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs SELL FURIA 100¢ $26 1h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY FURIA 74¢ $19 6h
Will Senegal advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup BUY Yes 69¢ $10 24h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo BUY BetBoom Team 46¢ $10 25h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 78¢ $20 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $9.78 · official $9.78 (match) · 5 history records