Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T12:41:29+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
16 0x164e…c4a6 world 9 markets active 6d ago coverage 75d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real
Total PnL +$118 (+19%) realized +$129 · open −$11
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +20% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +8% what you keep after slip
Net edge+8%after slip
Net WR57%break-even
Win rate100%7W / 0L
Drawdown0%max
Avg bet$70per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit67%portable
Net worth$9now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days+$106
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 45% +$94
tech 33% $0
world 21% +$2
finance 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +57%
net ROI/market (all)+8.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 4 +31.6% +19.0% 100% 100% +15.2%
≤90d 7 +19.5% +8.1% 100% 57% +14.2%
all 7 +19.5% +8.1% 100% 57% +14.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +8.1% 57% +14.2%
10% -2.2% 43% +3.3%
15% -11.7% 29% -6.7%
20% -20.3% 14% -15.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 54% · top 2 79% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +26% too few recent
Fragile wins
43% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +20% · $-wt +26% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$15 vs — no data
Profit factor
— no data
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

75d coverage
Net worth$9
Realized+$129
Unrealized−$11
Win rate (resolved)100%
Wins / losses7 / 0
Open positions2
Markets (closed)7 / 9
History coverage75d
Avg bet$70
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown0%
Kalshi-fit67%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 7 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? No 76¢ 36¢ $20 $9 −$11 (-53%)
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Yes 83¢ 93¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+11%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,600 in May? May 30 $146 +$57 +39%
Will Opendoor Technologies Inc. (OPEN) hit (HIGH) $5.00 in May? May 27 $119 +$27 +23%
Will 60 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by May 31? May 26 $105 +$12 +11%
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from April 7 to April 14, 2026? May 24 $18 +$9 +53%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on March Apr 13 $6 $0 +0%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $130 by end of March? Apr 13 $6 $0 +3%
US x Iran ceasefire by March 31? Apr 13 $7 +$1 +8%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $9.49 · official $9.34 (match) · 17 history records