Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T13:40:29+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
16 0x164d…00cb crypto 41 markets active 0h ago coverage 548d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$647 (-31%) realized −$651 · open +$4
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -37% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -43% what you keep after slip
Net edge-43%after slip
Net WR11%break-even
Win rate49%18W / 19L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$51per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit85%portable
Net worth$54now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$64
7 days−$64
14 days−$64
30 days−$64
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 56% −$705
politics 36% $0
other 5% $0
sports 1% +$6
tech 1% $0
culture 1% $0
finance 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +11%
net ROI/market (all)-42.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -20.4% -28.0% 33% 0% -32.1%
≤30d 3 -20.4% -28.0% 33% 0% -32.1%
≤90d 8 -24.4% -31.6% 50% 25% -28.9%
all 37 -36.8% -42.8% 49% 11% -40.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -42.8% 11% -40.8%
10% -48.3% 11% -46.4%
15% -53.3% 8% -51.6%
20% -57.9% 5% -56.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 57% · top 2 89% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -21% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
78% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -37% · $-wt -34% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -27% → late -46% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$7 vs −$43 · ×0.16 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.15 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

548d coverage
Net worth$54
Realized−$651
Unrealized+$4
Win rate (resolved)49%
Wins / losses18 / 19
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions4
Markets (closed)37 / 41
History coverage548d
Avg bet$51
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit85%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 37 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET Up 55¢ 69¢ $21 $27 +$6 (+27%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET Up 53¢ 52¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-1%)
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Yes 66¢ 66¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+1%)
Will California use a new congressional map for the 2026 United States midterm elections? No 14¢ 8¢ $3 $2 −$1 (-43%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 15 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET Jun 16 $52 +$3 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8AM ET Jun 16 $105 −$15 -15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET Jun 16 $97 −$51 -53%
XRP Up or Down - May 13, 6AM ET May 13 $8 −$8 -97%
Magic vs. Pistons May 04 $10 +$3 +27%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia, Qualification: Leolia Jeanjean vs Diane P May 04 $2 −$2 -98%
Clippers vs. Mavericks Apr 29 $14 +$5 +37%
Will With Heaven on Top by Zach Bryan be the Billboard 200 #1 album fo Mar 20 $16 $0 +2%
XRP Up or Down - January 15, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET Jan 15 $50 −$49 -98%
Solana Up or Down - January 15, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET Jan 15 $50 −$49 -98%
Ethereum Up or Down - January 15, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET Jan 15 $50 −$49 -98%
Solana Up or Down - January 15, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET Jan 15 $50 −$49 -98%
XRP Up or Down - January 15, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET Jan 15 $49 −$48 -98%
Solana Up or Down - January 14, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET Jan 15 $51 −$50 -99%
Solana Up or Down - January 14, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET Jan 15 $50 +$70 +140%
Ethereum Up or Down - January 14, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET Jan 15 $50 −$49 -98%
XRP Up or Down - January 14, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET Jan 15 $50 −$49 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 14, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET Jan 15 $50 −$49 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 14, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET Jan 15 $50 +$40 +80%
XRP Up or Down - January 14, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET Jan 15 $50 −$49 -98%
Solana Up or Down - January 14, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET Jan 15 $50 −$49 -98%
Solana Up or Down - January 14, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET Jan 15 $50 −$49 -98%
XRP Up or Down - January 14, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET Jan 15 $50 −$49 -98%
Sentient FDV above $200M one day after launch? Jan 15 $14 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 25, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET Nov 25 $109 −$109 -100%
Over $10M committed to the VOOI public sale? Nov 25 $24 $0 +0%
Will Outdoor Boys post another video by November 30? Nov 21 $23 $0 +1%
Will NVIDIA be the most valuable company on October 31? Nov 07 $23 $0 +1%
Will anyone say "Datacenter" during the Q2 2025 Nvidia earnings call? Sep 23 $11 $0 +1%
Record low border encounters in June? Aug 25 $15 $0 +0%
Plasma >$800M market cap (FDV) one day after launch? Jul 14 $20 $0 -2%
Will LDP hold the most seats in the House of Councillors following the Jun 30 $23 $0 +0%
Will the National Council for the Defense of Democracy – Forces for th May 26 $46 $0 +1%
Will Lee Jae-myung be the Democratic Party of Korea's candidate for pr May 15 $10 $0 +3%
Will the Conservative Party win the most seats in Saskatchewan in the May 15 $12 $0 +1%
Will Union win the most seats in the next German election? Apr 16 $12 +$1 +5%
Will Donald Trump be inaugurated? Jan 25 $645 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET BUY Up 53¢ $21 12m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET BUY Up 55¢ $22 12m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET SELL Up 22¢ $26 46m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET BUY Up 20¢ $26 48m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET SELL Down 64¢ $29 51m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET BUY Down 53¢ $26 52m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8AM ET SELL Up 42¢ $21 54m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8AM ET BUY Up 48¢ $26 54m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8AM ET SELL Up 51¢ $22 56m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8AM ET BUY Up 56¢ $26 56m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8AM ET SELL Up 59¢ $24 57m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8AM ET BUY Up 59¢ $26 57m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET SELL Up 11¢ $4 58m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET BUY Up 62¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET SELL Down 31¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET BUY Down 28¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET SELL Down 17¢ $17 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET BUY Down 24¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET SELL Down 21¢ $20 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET BUY Down 40¢ $17 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET BUY Down 40¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET BUY Down 40¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET BUY Down 40¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET BUY Down 40¢ $15 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8AM ET SELL Down 24¢ $22 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8AM ET BUY Down 27¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8AM ET BUY Down 26¢ $1 1h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 66¢ $5 6h
XRP Up or Down - May 13, 6AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $3 34d
XRP Up or Down - May 13, 6AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $5 34d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $53.62 · official $49.21 · 107 history records