Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T19:13:47+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0

score

16 0x1649…f43a sports 20 markets active 0h ago coverage 93d

TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ Small sample

✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)

Total PnL −$1,842 (-75%) realized −$1,751 · open −$91

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt -42% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -48% what you keep after slip

Net edge-48%after slip

Net WR33%break-even

Win rate33%6W / 12L

Drawdown100%max

Avg bet$122per market

Trades / day0.3pace

Fees−$7est.

Kalshi-fit70%portable

Net worth$109now

Equity curve

realized PnL

1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All

2 days−$235

7 days−$1,894

14 days−$1,894

30 days−$1,899

Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

negative after costs — do not copy

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +33%

net ROI/market (all)-48.0%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	16	-38.8%	-44.6%	38%	38%	-90.8%
≤30d	17	-39.1%	-44.9%	35%	35%	-90.7%
≤90d	18	-42.5%	-48.0%	33%	33%	-90.7%
all	18	-42.5%	-48.0%	33%	33%	-90.7%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover0.3 tr/day

realistic slip~5%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	-48.0%	33%	-90.7%
10%	-53.0%	17%	-91.6%
15%	-57.5%	17%	-92.4%
20%	-61.7%	17%	-93.1%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 42% · top 2 71% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI -90% edge died — 90d negative

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt -43% · $-wt -90% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early -12% → late -73% mixed

Add-ons / DCA

1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$8 vs −$163 · ×0.05 wins small, loses big

Profit factor

×0.03 loses more than it wins

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

93d coverage

Net worth$109

Realized−$1,751

Unrealized−$91

Win rate (resolved)33%

Wins / losses6 / 12

Est. fees paid−$7

Open positions2

Markets (closed)18 / 20

History coverage93d

Avg bet$122

Trades / day0.3

Drawdown100%

Kalshi-fit70%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 2 History 18 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	5¢	6¢	$100	$109	+$9 (+9%)
Spread: Portugal (-2.5)	Portugal	44¢	0¢	$100	$0	−$100 (-100%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 6 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17?	Jun 17	$152	−$140	-93%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5	Jun 16	$101	−$100	-99%
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw?	Jun 16	$10	−$10	-94%
Will France win on 2026-06-16?	Jun 16	$101	+$15	+14%
Spread: Switzerland (-3.5)	Jun 13	$13	−$13	-98%
Spread: Switzerland (-2.5)	Jun 13	$82	−$80	-98%
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5)	Jun 13	$101	−$100	-99%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13?	Jun 13	$1,458	−$1,450	-100%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals?	Jun 13	$10	+$2	+19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET	Jun 13	$15	−$15	-100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET	Jun 13	$25	−$25	-100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET	Jun 13	$9	+$1	+16%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12?	Jun 13	$20	+$20	+101%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11?	Jun 12	$10	+$8	+77%
Spread: Mexico (-1.5)	Jun 12	$2	+$3	+140%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 1.5	Jun 11	$10	−$10	-98%
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2026 NBA Finals?	May 31	$10	−$4	-45%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 16, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET	May 05	$10	−$10	-100%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17?	SELL Yes	5¢	$11	16m
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17?	BUY Yes	65¢	$152	1h
Spread: Portugal (-2.5)	BUY Portugal	44¢	$102	1h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5	BUY Under	72¢	$101	22h
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw?	SELL Yes	1¢	$1	22h
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw?	BUY Yes	17¢	$10	22h
Will France win on 2026-06-16?	SELL Yes	78¢	$116	22h
Will France win on 2026-06-16?	BUY Yes	67¢	$101	31h
Spread: Switzerland (-3.5)	BUY Switzerland	18¢	$13	4d
Spread: Switzerland (-2.5)	BUY Switzerland	35¢	$82	4d
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5)	BUY Switzerland	61¢	$101	4d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13?	BUY Yes	82¢	$1,458	4d
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	5¢	$103	4d
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	SELL Yes	5¢	$88	4d
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals?	SELL Yes	20¢	$12	4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET	BUY Down	76¢	$15	4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET	BUY Up	81¢	$25	4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET	BUY Up	85¢	$9	4d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12?	SELL Yes	94¢	$41	4d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12?	BUY Yes	46¢	$20	5d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11?	SELL Yes	69¢	$18	5d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11?	BUY Yes	38¢	$10	5d
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 1.5	BUY Under	32¢	$10	6d
Spread: Mexico (-1.5)	BUY Mexico	41¢	$2	6d
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	6¢	$103	14d
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2026 NBA Finals?	SELL Yes	30¢	$4	17d
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2026 NBA Finals?	SELL Yes	30¢	$1	17d
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals?	BUY Yes	16¢	$10	43d
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2026 NBA Finals?	BUY Yes	53¢	$10	54d
Ethereum Up or Down - March 16, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET	BUY Down	52¢	$10	93d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $108.77 · official $108.77 (match) · 50 history records