Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T23:30:46+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0

score

16 0x1649…d118 sports 29 markets active 0h ago coverage 3d

RISKYcopy with care sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample

Total PnL +$436 (+49%) realized +$497 · open −$2

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +37% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt +14% what you keep after slip

Net edge+14%after slip

Net WR50%break-even

Win rate50%11W / 11L

Drawdown38%max

Avg bet$31per market

Trades / day10.8pace

Fees−$11est.

Kalshi-fit76%portable

Net worth$48now

Equity curve

realized PnL

1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All

2 days+$460

7 days+$497

14 days+$497

30 days+$497

Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +50%

net ROI/market (all)+24.0%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	22	+37.0%	+24.0%	50%	50%	+47.7%
≤30d	22	+37.0%	+24.0%	50%	50%	+47.7%
≤90d	22	+37.0%	+24.0%	50%	50%	+47.7%
all	22	+37.0%	+24.0%	50%	50%	+47.7%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover10.8 tr/day

realistic slip~9%

edge survives to15%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	+24.0%	50%	+47.7%
10%	+12.1%	50%	+33.5%
15%	+1.3%	50%	+20.6%
20%	-8.6%	50%	+8.8%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 36% · top 2 49% concentrated in a few bets

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +63% fresh edge ✓

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip solid win margins

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +37% · $-wt +63% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early +89% → late -15% edge faded

Add-ons / DCA

1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$70 vs −$25 · ×2.84 wins bigger than losses

Profit factor

×2.84 per $1 lost it wins $2.84

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

3d coverage

Net worth$48

Realized+$497

Unrealized−$2

Win rate (resolved)50%

Wins / losses11 / 11

Est. fees paid−$11

Open positions2

Markets (closed)22 / 29

History coverage3d

Avg bet$31

Trades / day10.8

Drawdown38%

Kalshi-fit76%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 2 History 22 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14?	Yes	39¢	34¢	$30	$27	−$3 (-12%)
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 1.5	Under	40¢	44¢	$20	$22	+$2 (+9%)
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 1.5	Under	56¢	0¢	$35	$0	−$35 (-100%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw?	Jun 14	$26	+$64	+249%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 1.5	Jun 14	$35	−$35	-99%
Spread: Germany (-3.5)	Jun 14	$106	+$73	+69%
Jamal Musiala: 1+ goals	Jun 14	$25	+$23	+90%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14?	Jun 14	$51	+$63	+123%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5	Jun 14	$51	−$51	-100%
Spread: Brazil (-1.5)	Jun 14	$18	−$18	-100%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13?	Jun 14	$61	−$61	-100%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 2.5	Jun 14	$30	−$30	-100%
Spread: Switzerland (-2.5)	Jun 14	$15	−$15	-100%
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-13?	Jun 14	$18	−$18	-100%
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 2.5	Jun 14	$102	+$102	+101%
Spread: Australia (-1.5)	Jun 14	$47	+$277	+588%
Will Haiti vs. Scotland end in a draw?	Jun 14	$20	−$2	-9%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 4.5	Jun 13	$23	+$31	+134%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12?	Jun 13	$51	+$57	+112%
Spread: Bosnia and Herzegovina (-1.5)	Jun 12	$10	−$10	-100%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5	Jun 12	$25	+$22	+86%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 2.5	Jun 12	$17	−$17	-100%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11?	Jun 12	$20	+$32	+158%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: Korea Republic O/U 0.5	Jun 12	$20	+$23	+114%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5	Jun 12	$12	−$12	-100%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw?	SELL Yes	100¢	$89	8m
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14?	BUY Yes	39¢	$31	1h
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 1.5	BUY Under	40¢	$20	1h
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 1.5	BUY Under	56¢	$35	2h
Spread: Japan (-1.5) AND Spread: Sweden (-1.5) AND Will Côte d'Ivoire	BUY	3¢	$7	3h
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw?	BUY Yes	28¢	$26	3h
Spread: Germany (-3.5)	BUY Germany	60¢	$81	6h
Jamal Musiala: 1+ goals	BUY Yes	52¢	$25	7h
Spread: Germany (-3.5)	BUY Germany	54¢	$25	7h
Spread: Germany (-3.5) AND Spread: Sweden (-1.5) AND Will Netherlands	BUY	2¢	$10	16h
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14?	SELL Yes	100¢	$114	16h
Spread: Australia (-1.5)	BUY Australia	14¢	$47	18h
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14?	BUY Yes	44¢	$51	18h
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 2.5	BUY Under	49¢	$102	18h
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-13?	BUY Yes	17¢	$18	22h
Will Haiti vs. Scotland end in a draw?	SELL Yes	21¢	$19	22h
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 3.5 AND Will Haiti vs. Scotland end in a draw?	BUY	12¢	$9	23h
Will Haiti vs. Scotland end in a draw?	BUY Yes	22¢	$20	23h
Spread: Brazil (-1.5)	BUY Brazil	17¢	$18	24h
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5	BUY Over	44¢	$51	25h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13?	BUY Yes	59¢	$61	26h
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 3.5 AND Spread: Brazil (-1.5)	BUY	18¢	$10	26h
Spread: Switzerland (-2.5)	BUY Switzerland	49¢	$15	28h
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 2.5	BUY Over	67¢	$30	28h
Will United States win on 2026-06-12?	SELL Yes	99¢	$107	45h
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 4.5	BUY Over	42¢	$23	45h
Spread: Scotland (-1.5) AND Spread: United States (-1.5) AND Spread: S	BUY	3¢	$10	2d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12?	BUY Yes	46¢	$51	2d
Spread: Bosnia and Herzegovina (-1.5)	BUY Bosnia and Herzegovina	13¢	$10	2d
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5	BUY Under	53¢	$25	2d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $48.28 · official $48.29 (match) · 51 history records