Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T05:10:36+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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16 0x1647…6f61 crypto 567 markets active 1h ago coverage 130d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$855 (-3%) realized −$852 · open −$3
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR41%break-even
Win rate60%336W / 226L
Whale WR75%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$53per market
Trades / day14.9pace
Fees−$96est.
Kalshi-fit92%portable
Net worth$21now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$2
7 days−$38
14 days−$112
30 days−$30
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 81% −$1,476
sports 18% +$252
other 0% −$2
world 0% $0
weather 0% −$5
finance 0% $0
tech 0% $0
politics 0% $0
culture 0% $0
economics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +41%
net ROI/market (all)-11.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 -13.6% -21.8% 50% 50% -47.4%
≤30d 35 +36.3% +23.3% 51% 49% -11.5%
≤90d 242 +4.4% -5.6% 62% 46% -15.4%
all 562 -2.4% -11.7% 60% 41% -13.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover14.9 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.7% 41% -13.6%
10% -20.2% 27% -21.9%
15% -27.9% 16% -29.5%
20% -35.0% 10% -36.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 14% · top 2 21% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -6% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
29% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 75% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -9% → late +4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.2 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$15 vs −$29 · ×0.54 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.81 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

130d coverage
Net worth$21
Realized−$852
Unrealized−$3
Win rate (resolved)60%
Wins / losses336 / 226
Whale WR (big bets)75%
Est. fees paid−$96
Open positions5
Markets (closed)562 / 567
History coverage130d
Avg bet$53
Trades / day14.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit92%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 562 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Opensea FDV above $500M one day after launch? Yes 50¢ 43¢ $10 $9 −$2 (-15%)
Ink FDV above $500M one day after launch? Yes 68¢ 52¢ $7 $5 −$2 (-24%)
Will Base launch a token by December 31, 2026? Yes 35¢ 33¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-6%)
Variational FDV above $500M one day after launch? Yes 52¢ 67¢ $2 $3 +$1 (+29%)
Will Tuyo launch a token by March 31, 2027? Yes 33¢ 38¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+14%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 133 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Jun 15 $15 +$5 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET Jun 15 $5 +$12 +228%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Jun 15 $10 −$10 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET Jun 15 $6 −$5 -82%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET Jun 15 $6 +$1 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Jun 14 $5 +$1 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Jun 14 $1 +$1 +64%
ODI Series Bangladesh vs Australia: Bangladesh vs Australia Jun 09 $40 −$40 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET Jun 07 $30 +$5 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Jun 07 $6 −$5 -82%
T20 Ireland Tri-Series, Women: Pakistan vs West Indies Jun 03 $51 −$13 -26%
ODI Series West Indies vs Sri Lanka: West Indies vs Sri Lanka Jun 03 $99 −$99 -100%
T20 Series England vs. India, Women: England vs India Jun 03 $50 +$40 +82%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Jun 03 $2 −$2 -98%
T20 Scotland Tri-Series, Women: Scotland vs Bangladesh Jun 02 $26 −$26 -100%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026? Jun 01 $10 −$10 -98%
Indian Premier League: Royal Challengers Bengaluru vs Gujarat Titans Jun 01 $51 +$35 +70%
Indian Premier League: Gujarat Titans vs Rajasthan Royals May 31 $352 +$37 +11%
Indian Premier League: Sunrisers Hyderabad vs Rajasthan Royals May 28 $203 +$16 +8%
Indian Premier League: Royal Challengers Bengaluru vs Gujarat Titans May 26 $101 −$50 -50%
Indian Premier League: Kolkata Knight Riders vs Delhi Capitals May 24 $50 −$45 -90%
Indian Premier League: Mumbai Indians vs Rajasthan Royals May 24 $99 +$36 +36%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by December 31, 2026? May 23 $4 −$4 -97%
Indian Premier League: Lucknow Super Giants vs Punjab Kings May 23 $149 +$33 +22%
Indian Premier League: Sunrisers Hyderabad vs Royal Challengers Bengal May 23 $200 +$44 +22%
Indian Premier League: Gujarat Titans vs Chennai Super Kings May 21 $152 +$37 +24%
Indian Premier League: Rajasthan Royals vs Lucknow Super Giants May 20 $202 +$64 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET May 19 $1 $0 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET May 19 $5 +$1 +26%
Indian Premier League: Chennai Super Kings vs Sunrisers Hyderabad May 19 $101 +$51 +50%
Indian Premier League: Delhi Capitals vs Rajasthan Royals May 17 $10 −$10 -98%
Indian Premier League: Punjab Kings vs Royal Challengers Bengaluru May 17 $151 −$16 -10%
Indian Premier League: Kolkata Knight Riders vs Gujarat Titans May 16 $150 −$112 -75%
Indian Premier League: Punjab Kings vs Mumbai Indians May 14 $152 +$25 +16%
Indian Premier League: Gujarat Titans vs Sunrisers Hyderabad May 12 $50 −$50 -100%
Indian Premier League: Punjab Kings vs Delhi Capitals May 11 $61 −$41 -68%
Indian Premier League: Royal Challengers Bangalore vs Mumbai Indians May 10 $301 +$66 +22%
Indian Premier League: Chennai Super Kings vs Lucknow Super Giants May 10 $49 +$13 +26%
Indian Premier League: Rajasthan Royals vs Gujarat Titans May 09 $50 −$50 -100%
Indian Premier League: Delhi Capitals vs Kolkata Knight Riders May 09 $50 +$15 +31%
Indian Premier League: Lucknow Super Giants vs Royal Challengers Banga May 07 $302 +$74 +24%
Indian Premier League: Sunrisers Hyderabad vs Punjab Kings May 06 $51 −$50 -98%
Will the highest temperature in London be 19°C or higher on May 6? May 06 $2 −$1 -32%
Indian Premier League: Delhi Capitals vs Chennai Super Kings May 06 $150 −$10 -6%
Solana Up or Down - May 5, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET May 05 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 21°C or higher on May 5? May 05 $1 +$1 +188%
Indian Premier League: Mumbai Indians vs Lucknow Super Giants May 04 $51 +$54 +105%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be 68°F or higher on May 5? May 04 $1 −$1 -48%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET SELL Down 96¢ $21 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET BUY Down 70¢ $15 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET BUY Up 29¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET BUY Down 57¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET BUY Down 23¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET SELL Down 6¢ $0 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET BUY Up 81¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET BUY Down 77¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET SELL Down 6¢ $0 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET BUY Up 74¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET BUY Down 63¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET BUY Up 81¢ $4 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET BUY Up 68¢ $1 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET BUY Down 22¢ $1 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET SELL Up 84¢ $2 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET BUY Up 49¢ $1 25h
ODI Series Bangladesh vs Australia: Bangladesh vs Australia BUY Australia 57¢ $12 5d
ODI Series Bangladesh vs Australia: Bangladesh vs Australia BUY Australia 57¢ $28 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET SELL Down 98¢ $36 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET BUY Down 82¢ $30 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET SELL Down 28¢ $0 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET BUY Up 76¢ $5 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET BUY Down 74¢ $1 8d
T20 Ireland Tri-Series, Women: Pakistan vs West Indies SELL West Indies 50¢ $37 11d
ODI Series West Indies vs Sri Lanka: West Indies vs Sri Lanka BUY West Indies 28¢ $43 11d
ODI Series West Indies vs Sri Lanka: West Indies vs Sri Lanka BUY West Indies 28¢ $4 11d
ODI Series West Indies vs Sri Lanka: West Indies vs Sri Lanka BUY West Indies 28¢ $4 11d
T20 Ireland Tri-Series, Women: Pakistan vs West Indies BUY West Indies 66¢ $51 11d
ODI Series West Indies vs Sri Lanka: West Indies vs Sri Lanka BUY West Indies 49¢ $49 11d
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 11d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $21.33 · official $21.33 (match) · 2186 history records