Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T12:23:33+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
16 0x1646…2f81 sports 629 markets active 5h ago coverage 133d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$2,646 (-4%) realized −$2,606 · open −$40
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -21% what you keep after slip
Net edge-21%after slip
Net WR46%break-even
Win rate57%337W / 257L
Whale WR45%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$116per market
Trades / day13.4pace
Fees−$535est.
Kalshi-fit85%portable
Net worth$1,196now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$241
7 days+$337
14 days+$107
30 days−$1,368
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 82% −$2,295
other 14% −$27
world 2% −$188
finance 1% −$241
tech 0% +$5
politics 0% −$273
economics 0% −$182
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +46%
net ROI/market (all)-14.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 59 +15.7% +4.6% 59% 51% -2.4%
≤30d 195 -0.1% -9.6% 55% 48% -15.5%
≤90d 503 -6.7% -15.6% 54% 43% -15.5%
all 594 -4.9% -14.0% 57% 46% -13.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover13.4 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.0% 46% -13.6%
10% -22.2% 32% -21.8%
15% -29.7% 22% -29.4%
20% -36.6% 15% -36.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 9% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -7% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
19% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 45% (≥$500) neutral
Persistence
early -4% → late -6% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$37 vs −$62 · ×0.6 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.8 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

133d coverage
Net worth$1,196
Realized−$2,606
Unrealized−$40
Win rate (resolved)57%
Wins / losses337 / 257
Whale WR (big bets)45%
Est. fees paid−$535
Open positions35
Markets (closed)594 / 629
History coverage133d
Avg bet$116
Trades / day13.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit85%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 35 History 594 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Yes 92¢ 92¢ $163 $162 −$1 (-1%)
Spread: Spain (-1.5) Spain 74¢ 78¢ $148 $157 +$9 (+6%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 11¢ $111 $108 −$3 (-3%)
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Spain 52¢ 57¢ $77 $86 +$9 (+11%)
Will Daniil Medvedev be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? Yes $93 $86 −$7 (-8%)
Will Elina Svitolina be the 2026 Women’s Wimbledon Winner? Yes $51 $46 −$5 (-10%)
Will Linda Nosková be the 2026 Women’s Wimbledon Winner? Yes $34 $46 +$12 (+34%)
Will Novak Djokovic be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? Yes 13¢ 13¢ $40 $40 +$1 (+2%)
Grass Court Championships: Ekaterina Alexandrova vs Anastasia Potapova Anastasia Potapova 52¢ 40¢ $52 $40 −$12 (-24%)
Will Aryna Sabalenka be the 2026 Women’s Wimbledon Winner? Yes 25¢ 22¢ $44 $39 −$5 (-11%)
Will Jakub Mensik win the 2026 Men's US Open? Yes $25 $37 +$12 (+50%)
Will Diana Shnaider be the 2026 Women’s Wimbledon Winner? Yes $35 $37 +$2 (+6%)
Spread: Spain (-3.5) Spain 31¢ 34¢ $31 $34 +$3 (+11%)
Will Karolína Muchová be the 2026 Women’s Wimbledon Winner? Yes $32 $33 +$1 (+3%)
Will Barbora Krejčíková be the 2026 Women’s Wimbledon Winner? Yes $27 $31 +$4 (+15%)
Will Donna Vekić be the 2026 Women’s Wimbledon Winner? Yes $26 $21 −$5 (-20%)
Will Daniil Medvedev win the 2026 Men's US Open? Yes $21 $21 +$0 (+0%)
Spread: Spain (-4.5) Spain 16¢ 20¢ $16 $20 +$4 (+22%)
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $1.5T and $2.0T at market close on last trading day of IPO month? Yes 39¢ 20¢ $39 $20 −$20 (-50%)
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Both Teams to Score No 67¢ 64¢ $20 $19 −$1 (-4%)
Will Anna Kalinskaya be the 2026 Women’s Wimbledon Winner? Yes $22 $17 −$5 (-21%)
Ferrán Torres: 1+ goals Yes 53¢ 52¢ $17 $17 −$0 (-1%)
Rodri: 1+ assists Yes 23¢ 15¢ $23 $15 −$8 (-35%)
Ferrán Torres: 1+ assists Yes 33¢ 22¢ $19 $13 −$6 (-32%)
Cucurella: 1+ assists Yes 25¢ 16¢ $19 $12 −$7 (-38%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $700 in June? Jun 15 $92 −$48 -52%
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $710 in June? Jun 15 $50 −$32 -66%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of June? Jun 15 $123 −$99 -80%
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $228 +$12 +5%
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on June 15? Jun 15 $226 +$1 +1%
Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $6,000 (LOW) in June? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -75%
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $680 in June? Jun 15 $4 −$3 -80%
Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $6,700 (LOW) in June? Jun 15 $5 −$5 -93%
Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $6,500 (LOW) in June? Jun 15 $7 −$5 -77%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $130 by end of June? Jun 15 $8 −$6 -75%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $110 by end of June? Jun 15 $28 −$22 -80%
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $690 in June? Jun 15 $31 −$19 -62%
Spread: Netherlands (-1.5) Jun 14 $79 +$21 +27%
Will Kimi Antonelli win the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Prix? Jun 14 $200 +$49 +24%
Spread: Germany (-1.5) Jun 14 $175 +$30 +17%
Spread: Germany (-3.5) Jun 14 $50 +$43 +86%
Spread: Germany (-4.5) Jun 14 $31 +$28 +91%
Will Lewis Hamilton win the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Prix? Jun 14 $159 −$3 -2%
Grass Court Championships, Qualification: Katerina Siniakova vs Yue Yu Jun 14 $88 −$4 -4%
Grass Court Championships, Qualification: Diane Parry vs Ella Seidel Jun 14 $121 +$14 +12%
Libema Open: Robin Montgomery vs Barbora Krejcikova Jun 14 $86 −$28 -32%
OG Anunoby: Points O/U 17.5 Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
De'Aaron Fox: Points O/U 15.5 Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Victor Wembanyama: Points O/U 27.5 Jun 14 $150 −$150 -100%
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $169 +$31 +18%
Mikal Bridges: Points O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $20 +$2 +8%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: Qatar O/U 1.5 Jun 13 $227 +$26 +11%
HSBC Championships, Qualification: Daniel Evans vs Marcos Giron Jun 13 $112 +$16 +14%
Stuttgart Open: Alexander Bublik vs Taylor Fritz Jun 13 $85 −$85 -100%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $23 +$27 +114%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $107 +$33 +31%
Spread: Canada (-2.5) Jun 12 $45 +$5 +11%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 4.5 Jun 12 $92 +$8 +8%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 3.5 Jun 12 $80 $0 +0%
Libema Open: Nuno Borges vs Marin Cilic Jun 12 $101 +$15 +15%
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on June 12? Jun 12 $121 +$21 +17%
HSBC Championships: Sorana Cirstea vs Emma Raducanu Jun 12 $76 +$16 +21%
Libema Open: Zhizhen Zhang vs Adrian Mannarino Jun 12 $87 +$41 +47%
Libema Open: Barbora Krejcikova vs Gabriela Ruse Jun 12 $74 +$35 +48%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 3.5 Jun 12 $7 −$7 -100%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 4.5 Jun 12 $9 −$9 -100%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $20 +$30 +146%
Lyon: Marco Trungelliti vs Daniel Galan Jun 11 $47 −$47 -100%
Stuttgart Open: Sho Shimabukuro vs Nick Kyrgios Jun 11 $25 +$54 +216%
Stuttgart Open: Jiri Lehecka vs James Duckworth Jun 11 $161 +$22 +14%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 11 $50 −$3 -6%
Victor Wembanyama: Points O/U 27.5 Jun 11 $22 +$20 +90%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $29 +$295 +1003%
Jalen Brunson: Points O/U 26.5 Jun 11 $28 +$22 +79%
OG Anunoby: Points O/U 16.5 Jun 11 $27 +$22 +81%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 92¢ $50 5h
Cucurella: 1+ assists BUY Yes 25¢ $20 5h
Ferrán Torres: 1+ assists BUY Yes 33¢ $19 5h
Pedri: 1+ assists BUY Yes 29¢ $7 5h
Rodri: 1+ assists BUY Yes 23¢ $24 5h
Fabián Ruiz: 1+ assists BUY Yes 30¢ $3 5h
Marcos Llorente: 1+ goals BUY Yes 12¢ $3 5h
Nico Williams: 1+ goals BUY Yes 40¢ $4 5h
Dani Olmo: 1+ goals BUY Yes 39¢ $10 5h
Alex Baena: 1+ goals BUY Yes 27¢ $3 5h
Fabián Ruiz: 1+ goals BUY Yes 21¢ $2 5h
Ferrán Torres: 1+ goals BUY Yes 54¢ $9 5h
Ferrán Torres: 1+ goals BUY Yes 52¢ $8 5h
Will Donna Vekić be the 2026 Women’s Wimbledon Winner? BUY Yes $27 5h
Will Elina Svitolina be the 2026 Women’s Wimbledon Winner? BUY Yes $13 5h
Will Elena Rybakina be the 2026 Women’s Wimbledon Winner? SELL Yes 20¢ $202 5h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 92¢ $113 5h
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $700 in June? SELL Yes $22 5h
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $710 in June? SELL Yes 16¢ $17 5h
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of June? SELL Yes $24 6h
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-14? SELL No 100¢ $240 8h
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 95¢ $2 9h
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 95¢ $25 9h
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 95¢ $200 9h
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on June 15? SELL Up 95¢ $228 9h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Both Teams to Score BUY No 67¢ $20 9h
Grass Court Championships: Ekaterina Alexandrova vs Anastasia Potapova BUY Anastasia Potapova 52¢ $53 9h
Spread: Spain (-1.5) BUY Spain 74¢ $149 11h
Will Jakub Mensik win the 2026 Men's US Open? BUY Yes $25 11h
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on June 15? BUY Up 94¢ $226 11h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,196.20 · official $1,196.61 (match) · 2142 history records