Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T20:04:13+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
16 0x1646…ae5f crypto 86 markets active 6d ago coverage 2d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (156 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$20 (-4%) realized −$20 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -11% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -31% what you keep after slip
Net edge-31%after slip
Net WR31%break-even
Win rate45%39W / 47L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$6per market
Trades / day155.7pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$49
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (156 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +31%
net ROI/market (all)-19.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 69 -10.9% -19.4% 49% 38% -17.3%
≤30d 86 -10.8% -19.3% 45% 31% -17.6%
≤90d 86 -10.8% -19.3% 45% 31% -17.6%
all 86 -10.8% -19.3% 45% 31% -17.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover155.7 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -19.3% 31% -17.6%
10% ← realistic here -27.0% 20% -25.5%
15% -34.1% 14% -32.7%
20% -40.5% 8% -39.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 16% · top 2 31% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -9% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
31% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -11% · $-wt -9% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -11% → late -11% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$3 · ×0.75 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.62 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$20
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)45%
Wins / losses39 / 47
Open positions0
Markets (closed)86 / 86
History coverage2d
Avg bet$6
Trades / day155.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 86 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Jun 12 $5 +$4 +80%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 12 $4 −$2 -53%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Jun 12 $3 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Jun 12 $5 +$1 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 12 $9 +$3 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Jun 12 $4 −$2 -58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 12 $4 +$4 +88%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Jun 12 $4 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET Jun 11 $3 $0 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Jun 11 $9 −$3 -35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Jun 11 $4 −$2 -55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Jun 11 $12 −$5 -44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Jun 11 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Jun 11 $5 −$3 -67%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 11 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 11 $4 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 11 $10 +$1 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 11 $2 $0 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 11 $8 +$3 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 11 $9 −$3 -33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Jun 11 $4 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 11 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 11 $11 −$4 -38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 11 $10 +$1 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 11 $5 +$13 +280%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 11 $20 −$5 -25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 11 $9 −$3 -33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 11 $5 +$1 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 11 $8 +$7 +78%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 11 $5 +$1 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 11 $8 −$1 -12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 11 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Jun 11 $9 −$5 -52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 11 $8 +$3 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 11 $8 +$4 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 11 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Jun 11 $3 $0 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Jun 11 $11 +$1 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Jun 11 $9 −$3 -32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Jun 11 $10 +$1 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Jun 11 $9 −$2 -28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 11 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Jun 11 $5 +$2 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 11 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Jun 11 $5 +$1 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 11 $5 −$4 -76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Jun 11 $5 +$3 +61%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Jun 11 $14 −$5 -39%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET BUY Up 10¢ $5 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET BUY Up 35¢ $5 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET SELL Up 33¢ $2 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET BUY Up 66¢ $4 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET SELL Down 83¢ $4 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET BUY Down 48¢ $5 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET SELL Up 67¢ $3 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $3 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET SELL Up 84¢ $4 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET BUY Up 73¢ $5 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET SELL Up 86¢ $4 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET BUY Up 76¢ $4 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET SELL Up 87¢ $4 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET BUY Up 62¢ $5 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET SELL Up 24¢ $2 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET BUY Up 53¢ $4 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET SELL Up 76¢ $4 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET BUY Up 44¢ $4 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET SELL Down 62¢ $4 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET BUY Down 57¢ $4 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET SELL Down 65¢ $4 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET BUY Down 54¢ $3 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET SELL Up 32¢ $2 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET BUY Up 66¢ $4 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET BUY Down 18¢ $5 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET SELL Up 91¢ $5 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET BUY Up 71¢ $5 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET BUY Up 5¢ $5 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET BUY Up 5¢ $3 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET SELL Down 94¢ $5 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 306 history records