Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T00:21:42+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
16 0x1642…78d0 other 17 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable Fresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$133 (+5%) realized +$207 · open −$74
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR64%break-even
Win rate71%10W / 4L
Drawdown90%max
Avg bet$155per market
Trades / day20.5pace
Fees−$36est.
Kalshi-fit47%portable
Net worth$566now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 60% −$220
sports 40% +$393
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +64%
net ROI/market (all)-3.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 14 +6.6% -3.5% 71% 64% +3.4%
≤30d 14 +6.6% -3.5% 71% 64% +3.4%
≤90d 14 +6.6% -3.5% 71% 64% +3.4%
all 14 +6.6% -3.5% 71% 64% +3.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover20.5 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -3.5% 64% +3.4%
10% ← realistic here -12.8% 43% -6.5%
15% -21.2% 43% -15.5%
20% -28.9% 21% -23.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 29% · top 2 47% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +13% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
10% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +7% · $-wt +13% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -26% → late +39% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$61 vs −$92 · ×0.67 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.67 per $1 lost it wins $1.67
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$566
Realized+$207
Unrealized−$74
Win rate (resolved)71%
Wins / losses10 / 4
Est. fees paid−$36
Open positions3
Markets (closed)14 / 17
History coverage1d
Avg bet$155
Trades / day20.5
Drawdown90%
Kalshi-fit47%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 14 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Colombia vs. Portugal end in a draw? Yes 24¢ 30¢ $300 $369 +$69 (+23%)
Will DR Congo vs. Uzbekistan end in a draw? Yes 28¢ 30¢ $101 $106 +$5 (+5%)
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-27? Yes 59¢ 22¢ $239 $91 −$148 (-62%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will England win on 2026-06-27? Jun 27 $331 +$52 +16%
Will Croatia vs. Ghana end in a draw? Jun 27 $265 +$109 +41%
Will Panama vs. England end in a draw? Jun 27 $103 +$57 +56%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-27? Jun 27 $103 −$100 -98%
Will Egypt vs. IR Iran end in a draw? Jun 27 $103 +$178 +172%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $201 +$43 +21%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $103 +$70 +67%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $102 −$100 -98%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $204 −$121 -59%
Will Cabo Verde vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw? Jun 27 $52 +$19 +36%
Will Uruguay vs. Spain end in a draw? Jun 27 $52 +$1 +3%
Will France win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $101 +$42 +42%
Will Norway vs. France end in a draw? Jun 26 $55 −$45 -82%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $201 +$42 +21%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will DR Congo vs. Uzbekistan end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $103 25m
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 59¢ $242 1h
Will Colombia vs. Portugal end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $307 1h
Will Croatia vs. Ghana end in a draw? SELL Yes 44¢ $375 1h
Will Panama vs. England end in a draw? SELL Yes 18¢ $160 2h
Will Croatia vs. Ghana end in a draw? BUY Yes 30¢ $61 6h
Will England win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 86¢ $331 6h
Will Panama vs. England end in a draw? BUY Yes 11¢ $103 6h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 16¢ $103 6h
Will Croatia vs. Ghana end in a draw? BUY Yes 30¢ $204 6h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 82¢ $201 22h
Will Egypt vs. IR Iran end in a draw? BUY Yes 36¢ $103 22h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 37¢ $102 22h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 31¢ $102 23h
Will Cabo Verde vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw? SELL Yes 41¢ $71 23h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-26? SELL Yes 30¢ $77 23h
Will Uruguay vs. Spain end in a draw? SELL Yes 30¢ $53 23h
Will Cabo Verde vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw? BUY Yes 29¢ $52 27h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 38¢ $102 27h
Will Uruguay vs. Spain end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $52 27h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 59¢ $103 27h
Will Norway vs. France end in a draw? SELL Yes 3¢ $10 28h
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-26? SELL Yes 97¢ $243 28h
Will France win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 70¢ $101 30h
Will Norway vs. France end in a draw? BUY Yes 18¢ $55 30h
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 80¢ $201 30h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $566.30 · official $566.30 (match) · 31 history records