Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T03:15:56+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
16 0x1640…a407 crypto 1355 markets active 1h ago coverage 97d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 97d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$6 (-0%) realized −$6 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR26%break-even
Win rate86%1177W / 188L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$3per market
Trades / day17.6pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$36
7 days−$39
14 days−$39
30 days−$39
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +26%
net ROI/market (all)-10.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 18 -62.1% -65.7% 33% 33% -75.7%
≤30d 41 -28.0% -34.9% 63% 63% -44.8%
≤90d 1025 -1.9% -11.3% 86% 23% -8.9%
all 1365 -1.3% -10.7% 86% 26% -8.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover17.6 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.7% 26% -8.9%
10% -19.3% 0% -17.6%
15% -27.1% 0% -25.6%
20% -34.2% 0% -32.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 0% · top 2 1% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
68% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late -3% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$2 · ×0.14 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.9 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

97d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$6
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)86%
Wins / losses1177 / 188
Open positions0
Markets (closed)1365 / 1355
History coverage97d ⚠
Avg bet$3
Trades / day17.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 1365 Trades
no open positions (68 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 13, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 25, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 9, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET Jun 17 $0 $0 -352%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 9, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET Jun 17 $0 −$4 -2020%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 12, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET Jun 17 $0 −$2 -1959%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 9, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 9, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 13, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET Jun 17 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 10, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 9, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Jun 17 $2 $0 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET Jun 16 $2 $0 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Jun 14 $2 $0 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Jun 13 $2 $0 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET Jun 12 $2 $0 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Jun 11 $2 −$2 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 10 $2 −$2 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Jun 09 $2 $0 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 08 $2 $0 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 07 $2 $0 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Jun 06 $2 −$2 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 05 $2 $0 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 04 $2 $0 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 03 $2 $0 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 02 $2 $0 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 01 $2 −$2 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET May 31 $2 $0 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET May 30 $2 $0 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET May 29 $2 $0 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET May 28 $2 $0 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET May 27 $2 $0 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET May 26 $2 −$2 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET May 25 $2 $0 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET May 24 $2 $0 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET May 23 $2 $0 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET May 22 $2 $0 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET May 21 $2 $0 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET May 20 $2 $0 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET May 19 $2 $0 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET May 18 $2 $0 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET May 17 $2 −$2 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET May 16 $2 $0 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET May 15 $2 $0 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET May 14 $2 $0 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET May 13 $2 $0 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET May 12 $2 $0 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET May 11 $2 $0 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET May 10 $2 $0 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET May 09 $2 $0 +15%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET BUY Down 85¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET BUY Down 88¢ $2 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET BUY Up 88¢ $2 47h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET BUY Up 87¢ $2 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET BUY Down 87¢ $2 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET BUY Down 88¢ $2 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET BUY Up 87¢ $2 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET BUY Down 88¢ $2 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET BUY Down 87¢ $2 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET BUY Up 88¢ $2 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET BUY Up 88¢ $2 9d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET BUY Down 87¢ $2 10d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET BUY Down 87¢ $2 11d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET BUY Down 88¢ $2 12d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET BUY Down 87¢ $2 13d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET BUY Down 85¢ $2 14d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET BUY Up 88¢ $2 15d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET BUY Down 88¢ $2 16d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET BUY Up 87¢ $2 18d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET BUY Down 88¢ $2 19d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET BUY Down 86¢ $2 20d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET BUY Up 88¢ $2 20d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET BUY Down 88¢ $2 21d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET BUY Up 87¢ $2 22d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET BUY Up 87¢ $2 23d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET BUY Down 87¢ $2 24d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET BUY Down 88¢ $2 25d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET BUY Up 88¢ $2 26d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET BUY Up 87¢ $2 27d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET BUY Down 88¢ $2 28d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records