Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T09:56:43+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
16 0x163e…02ed crypto 1237 markets active 0h ago coverage 11d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 10d only
✗ bot/MM pace (212 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$519 (-11%) realized −$521 · open +$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR51%break-even
Win rate61%760W / 492L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$4per market
Trades / day211.8pace
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$6now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$450
7 days−$256
14 days−$175
30 days−$175
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$146
other 0% −$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (212 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +51%
net ROI/market (all)-10.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 762 -8.0% -16.8% 56% 45% -17.7%
≤30d 1252 -1.6% -10.9% 61% 51% -12.7%
≤90d 1252 -1.6% -10.9% 61% 51% -12.7%
all 1252 -1.6% -10.9% 61% 51% -12.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover211.8 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -10.9% 51% -12.7%
10% ← realistic here -19.5% 42% -21.0%
15% -27.2% 31% -28.7%
20% -34.4% 21% -35.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 3% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
16% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +20% → late -23% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$3 · ×0.56 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.87 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

11d coverage
Net worth$6
Realized−$521
Unrealized+$2
Win rate (resolved)61%
Wins / losses760 / 492
Open positions2
Markets (closed)1252 / 1237
History coverage11d ⚠
Avg bet$4
Trades / day211.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 1252 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 16? Yes 50¢ 99¢ $2 $4 +$2 (+97%)
Will SpaceX have between 140-159 launches in 2026? No 70¢ 41¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-42%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 61 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will SSC Napoli vs. SS Lazio end in a draw? Jun 15 $0 −$1 -290%
Will Wuhan San Zhen FC win on 2026-04-21? Jun 15 $2 −$4 -200%
Will Stoke City FC vs. Millwall FC end in a draw? Jun 15 $1 −$2 -203%
Will Sporting CP win on 2026-04-19? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -200%
XRP Up or Down - May 27, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Dogecoin Up or Down - May 24, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Solana Up or Down - May 24, 8:00PM-12:00AM ET Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
XRP Up or Down - May 26, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Brighton & Hove Albion FC win on 2026-04-18? Jun 15 $1 −$2 -218%
Will RB Leipzig win on 2026-04-18? Jun 15 $1 −$2 -202%
Will Palermo FC vs. Cesena FC end in a draw? Jun 15 $0 $0 -200%
Will CA Tigre win on 2026-04-20? Jun 15 $0 $0 -200%
Will Atalanta BC win on 2026-04-18? Jun 15 $1 −$3 -202%
Will Girona FC vs. Real Betis Balompié end in a draw? Jun 15 $1 −$2 -202%
Will Shenzhen Xinpengcheng FC vs. Beijing Guoan FC end in a draw? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -203%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 15 $3 +$2 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Jun 15 $2 +$1 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 15 $4 −$2 -42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 15 $4 +$1 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 15 $3 +$2 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 15 $3 +$2 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 15 $3 −$2 -50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 15 $4 −$3 -72%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 15 $4 +$1 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 15 $3 +$2 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 15 $3 +$2 +67%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 15 $4 +$1 +35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 15 $3 +$2 +67%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 15 $3 +$2 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Jun 15 $3 +$2 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 15 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 15 $3 +$2 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Jun 15 $3 +$2 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Jun 15 $3 +$2 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 15 $3 +$2 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Jun 15 $4 +$1 +41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Jun 15 $4 +$1 +39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Jun 15 $4 +$1 +19%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Jun 15 $3 +$2 +57%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Jun 15 $3 +$2 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Jun 15 $3 +$2 +52%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Jun 15 $3 −$1 -30%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET Jun 15 $8 +$2 +20%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Jun 15 $3 −$1 -28%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Jun 15 $3 −$1 -30%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $5 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET BUY Up 61¢ $3 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET BUY Up 70¢ $0 18m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET BUY Up 70¢ $3 18m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET BUY Down 78¢ $1 23m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET BUY Down 78¢ $1 23m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET SELL Up 46¢ $2 28m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET BUY Up 76¢ $4 29m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $5 41m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET BUY Down 79¢ $4 44m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $5 46m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET BUY Up 61¢ $3 48m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $5 51m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET BUY Up 68¢ $3 54m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET SELL Up 31¢ $1 56m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET SELL Up 31¢ $1 56m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET BUY Up 62¢ $3 59m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET SELL Up 21¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET BUY Up 70¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET BUY Down 77¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET BUY Up 67¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET BUY Down 69¢ $0 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET BUY Down 69¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET BUY Down 62¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET BUY Down 67¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET BUY Up 60¢ $1 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $6.46 · official $6.30 (match) · 3500 history records