Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T23:04:34+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
16 0x163b…c2e3 crypto 116 markets active 1h ago coverage 612d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$31 (+0%) realized +$31 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR14%break-even
Win rate93%102W / 8L
Drawdown50%max
Avg bet$246per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Kalshi-fit89%portable
Net worth$130now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$0
14 days+$1
30 days+$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 65% +$29
crypto 35% +$12
other 0% −$1
tech 0% −$7
world 0% +$1
culture 0% −$1
economics 0% +$1
weather 0% $0
sports 0% −$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +14%
net ROI/market (all)-12.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +0.1% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤30d 7 +4.8% -5.2% 100% 14% -9.3%
≤90d 28 +3.2% -6.6% 100% 7% -9.3%
all 110 -3.3% -12.5% 93% 14% -9.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.5% 14% -9.4%
10% -20.9% 7% -18.1%
15% -28.5% 2% -26.0%
20% -35.5% 0% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 45% · top 2 50% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
84% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -8% → late +2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$3 · ×0.18 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×2.25 per $1 lost it wins $2.25
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

612d coverage
Net worth$130
Realized+$31
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)93%
Wins / losses102 / 8
Open positions6
Markets (closed)110 / 116
History coverage612d
Avg bet$246
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown50%
Kalshi-fit89%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 110 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on June 19? No 100¢ 100¢ $108 $108 −$0 (-0%)
Will Rodina gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? No 98¢ 100¢ $7 $7 +$0 (+2%)
Bitcoin all time high by June 30, 2026? No 100¢ 100¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-0%)
Will MegaETH perform an airdrop by June 30? No 95¢ 98¢ $4 $4 +$0 (+4%)
Will the Communist Party of the Russian Federation (KPRF) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? No 99¢ 97¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-2%)
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30? No 96¢ 98¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $70,000 and $72,000 on June 11? Jun 13 $114 $0 +0%
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? Jun 10 $3 $0 +1%
Nothing Ever Happens: May Jun 10 $3 +$1 +30%
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $5,200 in May? Jun 10 $2 $0 +3%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on May 25? May 30 $170 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on May 22? May 24 $168 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $88,000 on May 11? May 21 $180 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 7? May 10 $178 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on May 4? May 05 $181 +$1 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $3,200 in April? May 03 $2 $0 +1%
Will Google (GOOGL) close above $240 end of April? May 03 $3 $0 +1%
Will Solana reach $160 in April? May 03 $3 $0 +1%
Will Solana dip to $50 in April? May 03 $4 $0 +4%
Will Meta (META) close above $460 end of April? May 03 $5 $0 +3%
Will gas hit (Low) $3.85 by April 30? May 03 $6 +$3 +43%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,700 on April 19? May 03 $154 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on April 15? Apr 18 $161 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $58,000 and $60,000 on April 12? Apr 13 $164 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be greater than $2,600 on April 8? Apr 10 $164 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,600 on April 6? Apr 07 $170 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on April 3? Apr 04 $171 $0 +0%
Will XRP dip to $0.60 in March? Apr 02 $5 $0 +1%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,700 on April 1? Apr 02 $162 $0 +0%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on March Apr 01 $4 $0 +1%
Will the price of Ethereum be greater than $2,500 on March 29? Mar 30 $164 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on March 25? Mar 26 $164 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $62,000 on March 22? Mar 23 $164 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,600 on March 20? Mar 21 $162 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $62,000 on March 18? Mar 19 $167 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $78,000 on March 16? Mar 17 $172 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on March 14? Mar 14 $174 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be greater than $2,500 on March 12? Mar 13 $177 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,400 and $2,500 on March 9? Mar 11 $170 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on March 7? Mar 08 $173 $0 +0%
Will Trump deport less than 250,000? Mar 07 $4 $0 +1%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,300 and $2,400 on March 1? Mar 07 $171 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on February 27? Feb 28 $169 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $76,000 on February 24? Feb 25 $173 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $78,000 on February 21? Feb 22 $171 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on February 18? Feb 19 $167 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $76,000 and $78,000 on February 1 Feb 17 $169 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $76,000 and $78,000 on February 1 Feb 16 $167 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on February 13? Feb 14 $166 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be greater than $2,600 on February 11? Feb 12 $168 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,700 and $2,800 on February 9? Feb 10 $164 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $86,000 on February 7? Feb 08 $170 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $3,300 on February 3? Feb 05 $171 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $75,000 in January? Feb 01 $3 $0 +1%
Will XRP reach $3.20 in January? Feb 01 $3 $0 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $94,000 on January 31? Feb 01 $159 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on June 19? BUY No 100¢ $108 1h
Will MegaETH perform an airdrop by June 30? BUY No 95¢ $4 22h
Bitcoin all time high by June 30, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $5 23h
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on Jun BUY No 96¢ $3 23h
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $70,000 and $72,000 on June 11? BUY No 100¢ $114 7d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on May 25? BUY No 100¢ $170 24d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on May 22? BUY Yes 100¢ $168 27d
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? BUY No 99¢ $3 30d
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $5,200 in May? BUY No 97¢ $2 36d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $88,000 on May 11? BUY No 100¢ $180 38d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 7? BUY Yes 100¢ $178 42d
Nothing Ever Happens: May BUY Nothing 77¢ $3 42d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on May 4? BUY Yes 100¢ $181 45d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,700 on April 19? BUY No 100¢ $154 60d
Will Solana reach $160 in April? BUY No 99¢ $3 61d
Will gas hit (Low) $3.85 by April 30? BUY No 69¢ $6 61d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on April 15? BUY No 100¢ $161 65d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $58,000 and $60,000 on April 12? BUY No 100¢ $164 67d
Will the price of Ethereum be greater than $2,600 on April 8? BUY No 100¢ $164 71d
Will Ethereum reach $3,200 in April? BUY No 99¢ $2 72d
Will Solana dip to $50 in April? BUY No 96¢ $4 72d
Will Meta (META) close above $460 end of April? BUY Yes 97¢ $5 72d
Will Google (GOOGL) close above $240 end of April? BUY Yes 99¢ $3 72d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,600 on April 6? BUY No 100¢ $170 74d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on April 3? BUY No 100¢ $171 76d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,700 on April 1? BUY No 100¢ $162 78d
Will the price of Ethereum be greater than $2,500 on March 29? BUY No 100¢ $164 82d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on March 25? BUY No 100¢ $164 86d
Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $62,000 on March 22? BUY No 100¢ $164 88d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,600 on March 20? BUY No 100¢ $162 90d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $129.76 · official $129.76 (match) · 304 history records