Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T18:41:39+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
16 0x163a…af4d world 101 markets active 0h ago coverage 430d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$31 (-0%) realized −$31 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR5%break-even
Win rate29%29W / 70L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$72per market
Trades / day0.9pace
Fees−$6est.
Kalshi-fit86%portable
Net worth$1now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$6
14 days−$10
30 days−$24
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 38% −$23
sports 24% −$1
other 17% −$3
politics 15% +$4
economics 3% $0
crypto 1% −$9
finance 1% $0
culture 0% $0
tech 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +5%
net ROI/market (all)-10.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 -1.1% -10.6% 43% 0% -10.4%
≤30d 26 -1.9% -11.3% 31% 8% -10.7%
≤90d 71 -1.3% -10.7% 28% 6% -9.8%
all 99 -1.2% -10.6% 29% 5% -10.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.6% 5% -10.0%
10% -19.2% 3% -18.6%
15% -27.0% 2% -26.4%
20% -34.1% 2% -33.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 11% · top 2 21% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
83% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late -2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×0.53 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.36 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

430d coverage
Net worth$1
Realized−$31
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)29%
Wins / losses29 / 70
Est. fees paid−$6
Open positions2
Markets (closed)99 / 101
History coverage430d
Avg bet$72
Trades / day0.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit86%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 99 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? No 41¢ 36¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-11%)
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? Yes 3¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-91%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 24 $71 $0 -0%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 23 $14 −$1 -6%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 22 $64 +$1 +1%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 20 $142 −$8 -5%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 19 $245 $0 -0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? Jun 18 $39 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? Jun 17 $77 +$1 +2%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 17 $55 $0 +0%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 14 $12 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 13 $69 +$2 +2%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 12 $38 −$7 -17%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 12 $81 +$1 +2%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 10 $99 −$6 -6%
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? Jun 09 $13 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 09 $86 $0 -0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 09 $73 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by June 9? Jun 08 $3 −$2 -48%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 08 $150 $0 +0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 07 $94 $0 +0%
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? Jun 06 $92 $0 +0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? Jun 06 $2 +$1 +27%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 05 $87 $0 -0%
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? Jun 04 $1 $0 +12%
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? May 28 $2 $0 -6%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? May 28 $88 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? May 27 $89 −$7 -8%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? May 22 $28 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 20 $36 −$1 -2%
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? May 20 $91 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? May 18 $3 +$2 +55%
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 18 $89 $0 -0%
Will Lorenzo Musetti win the 2026 Men's French Open? May 18 $92 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 17 $82 +$1 +2%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by May 31, 2026? May 16 $78 $0 -0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? May 16 $169 $0 +0%
Will New People (NL) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamen May 16 $86 $0 -0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? May 15 $165 $0 -0%
Greece x Turkey military engagement by June 30? May 14 $86 $0 +0%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 27 $190 $0 -0%
Will Rafael López Aliaga win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Apr 27 $78 $0 +0%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 26 $157 $0 -0%
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 25 $86 $0 +0%
Will the Boston Celtics win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 25 $86 $0 +0%
Will the Carolina Panthers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Apr 25 $78 $0 +0%
Will Joao Fonseca win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 24 $192 $0 -0%
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 24 $246 $0 +0%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect Apr 22 $131 +$1 +1%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 21 $391 −$1 -0%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 20 $78 $0 +0%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 19 $78 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 91¢ $71 15m
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 91¢ $71 1h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 3¢ $4 25h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 3¢ $2 27h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 3¢ $3 27h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL No 76¢ $65 43h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY No 75¢ $64 45h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 53¢ $31 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 53¢ $39 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 53¢ $70 4d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 94¢ $64 5d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY No 94¢ $36 5d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY No 94¢ $28 5d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 5¢ $5 5d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 5¢ $4 5d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 6¢ $10 5d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? SELL Yes 28¢ $4 5d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? SELL Yes 27¢ $35 5d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? BUY Yes 27¢ $15 6d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? BUY Yes 27¢ $24 6d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 42¢ $26 6d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 42¢ $38 6d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 47¢ $1 6d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 47¢ $30 6d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 47¢ $40 6d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? SELL No 64¢ $58 6d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? SELL No 64¢ $20 6d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY No 63¢ $77 6d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 31¢ $55 7d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 31¢ $32 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.67 · official $0.00 (match) · 404 history records