Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T21:13:26+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
16 0x1639…24f3 crypto 167 markets active 0h ago coverage 96d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$415 (+10%) realized +$421 · open −$6
Gross ROI / mkt -24% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -34% what you keep after slip
Net edge-34%after slip
Net WR31%break-even
Win rate35%58W / 106L
Drawdown41%max
Avg bet$25per market
Trades / day5.0pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit91%portable
Net worth$23now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$19
7 days+$16
14 days+$4
30 days+$135
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 63% +$856
crypto 27% −$298
other 3% −$69
tech 3% −$25
finance 1% −$19
politics 1% −$54
sports 1% −$8
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +31%
net ROI/market (all)-31.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 11 -38.1% -44.0% 45% 45% -1.0%
≤30d 62 -33.9% -40.2% 32% 29% -1.8%
≤90d 104 -17.3% -25.2% 38% 34% +6.1%
all 164 -24.5% -31.7% 35% 31% -0.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.0 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -31.7% 31% -0.7%
10% -38.2% 23% -10.2%
15% -44.2% 18% -18.8%
20% -49.7% 13% -26.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 37% · top 2 46% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +17% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
12% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -25% · $-wt +10% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -15% → late -34% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$20 vs −$8 · ×2.72 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.49 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

96d coverage
Net worth$23
Realized+$421
Unrealized−$6
Win rate (resolved)35%
Wins / losses58 / 106
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions3
Markets (closed)164 / 167
History coverage96d
Avg bet$25
Trades / day5.0
Drawdown41%
Kalshi-fit91%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 164 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Yes 35¢ 22¢ $17 $11 −$6 (-35%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? Yes 59¢ 44¢ $10 $8 −$2 (-25%)
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Yes 46¢ 100¢ $2 $4 +$2 (+114%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 52 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $12 −$8 -66%
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 22, 2026? Jun 15 $23 +$5 +24%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 15 $73 +$24 +33%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15? Jun 15 $5 −$4 -86%
Will Apple be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on Jun 14 $10 +$2 +24%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 14? Jun 14 $15 +$3 +20%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -91%
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -88%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $5 −$5 -99%
SpaceX IPO: Open Price above IPO Price? Jun 11 $23 +$3 +11%
NBA Finals: Will there be a Breen Bang in Game 3? Jun 08 $5 −$5 -99%
Israel closes its airspace by June 8? Jun 08 $17 +$17 +99%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? Jun 08 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN) hit (HIGH) $320 in June? Jun 08 $1 −$1 -95%
Will Apple (AAPL) hit (HIGH) $360 in June? Jun 08 $1 −$1 -82%
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (HIGH) $264 in June? Jun 08 $2 −$2 -86%
Will Microsoft Corporation (MSFT) hit (HIGH) $510 in June? Jun 08 $2 −$2 -85%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? Jun 08 $2 −$1 -69%
Will Saudi Arabia join the Abraham Accords before 2027? Jun 08 $2 −$1 -55%
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (HIGH) $248 in June? Jun 08 $5 −$4 -70%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 08 $8 −$4 -52%
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (HIGH) $240 in June? Jun 08 $10 −$5 -52%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? Jun 06 $14 +$2 +14%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? May 28 $43 −$42 -98%
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (HIGH) $224 in June? May 28 $40 −$8 -21%
Will Microsoft Corporation (MSFT) hit (HIGH) $435 in May? May 28 $7 +$6 +83%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-30? May 28 $40 −$3 -7%
Israel x Lebanon diplomatic meeting by May 31? May 28 $5 −$5 -100%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 27 $3 $0 -11%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by July 31, 2026? May 27 $10 −$2 -23%
Will Israel launch a major ground offensive in Gaza by June 30? May 27 $4 −$1 -30%
Will Israel launch a major ground offensive in Gaza by December 31? May 27 $15 −$1 -7%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? May 27 $50 +$17 +33%
Israel x Hamas ceasefire cancelled by June 30? May 27 $20 −$11 -54%
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (HIGH) $240 in May? May 26 $8 −$8 -96%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? May 26 $4 $0 +12%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 26 $5 $0 +7%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? May 26 $15 +$2 +11%
Will Apple (AAPL) hit (HIGH) $328 in May? May 25 $1 −$1 -96%
Will Apple (AAPL) hit (HIGH) $320 in May? May 25 $5 −$5 -97%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? May 25 $15 +$9 +57%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? May 25 $8 +$1 +11%
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? May 25 $35 +$24 +68%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? May 25 $230 +$107 +47%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? May 25 $40 +$39 +98%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? May 25 $265 −$14 -5%
Israel closes its airspace by May 24? May 25 $230 +$99 +43%
Brighton & Hove Albion FC vs. Manchester United FC: Both Teams to Scor May 24 $4 +$6 +150%
Will Aston Villa FC win on 2026-05-24? May 24 $1 −$1 -78%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes $1 16m
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes $1 16m
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 22¢ $4 24m
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY Yes 46¢ $1 42m
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY Yes 47¢ $1 42m
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 29¢ $2 1h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 34¢ $1 1h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 35¢ $3 1h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 35¢ $5 1h
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 22, 2026? BUY Yes 81¢ $3 15h
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 22, 2026? BUY Yes 81¢ $20 15h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 84¢ $23 15h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15? SELL Yes $0 15h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 62¢ $3 23h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY Yes 59¢ $10 23h
Will Apple be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on SELL No 70¢ $13 23h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY Yes 36¢ $2 23h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15? BUY Yes $1 23h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY Yes 35¢ $5 23h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY Yes 34¢ $10 23h
Will Iran close its airspace by June 14? SELL No 94¢ $18 23h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 66¢ $4 23h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 62¢ $10 23h
Will Iran close its airspace by June 14? BUY No 68¢ $5 26h
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes $0 27h
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes $0 27h
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? SELL Yes $0 27h
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? BUY Yes $1 27h
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes $1 27h
Will Iran close its airspace by June 14? BUY No 85¢ $10 31h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $22.89 · official $22.90 (match) · 514 history records