Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T13:15:26+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
16 0x1637…a7a9 politics 141 markets active 2h ago coverage 132d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$55 (-0%) realized −$55 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR1%break-even
Win rate6%9W / 132L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$192per market
Trades / day2.7pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit67%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$1
14 days−$1
30 days−$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 45% −$14
politics 38% −$14
sports 9% −$29
economics 4% −$1
crypto 3% −$1
world 1% $0
culture 1% $0
tech 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +1%
net ROI/market (all)-11.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 13 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 105 -0.1% -9.6% 4% 0% -9.6%
all 141 -2.6% -11.9% 6% 1% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.9% 1% -9.7%
10% -20.3% 1% -18.4%
15% -28.0% 0% -26.2%
20% -35.1% 0% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 79% · top 2 95% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
78% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -5% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$1 · ×2.98 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.21 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

132d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$55
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)6%
Wins / losses9 / 132
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)141 / 141
History coverage132d
Avg bet$192
Trades / day2.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit67%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 141 Trades
no open positions (4 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 23 $188 $0 -0%
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 23 $324 $0 -0%
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 21 $20 $0 -0%
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin Jun 21 $28 $0 -0%
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 20 $26 $0 -0%
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 19 $20 $0 -0%
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 01 $24 $0 -0%
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? May 31 $165 $0 -0%
Will Steve Bannon win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 31 $24 $0 -0%
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 29 $184 $0 -0%
Will John Fetterman win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 27 $142 $0 -0%
Will Eduardo Leite win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 27 $169 $0 -0%
Will Brian Kemp win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 25 $160 $0 -0%
Will Rand Paul win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 24 $283 $0 -0%
Will Tom Brady win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 23 $137 $0 -0%
Will Stephen A. Smith win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 23 $131 $0 -0%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 22 $178 $0 -0%
Will Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson win the 2028 Democratic presidential no May 22 $133 $0 -0%
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? May 21 $298 $0 -0%
Will Sergio Fajardo win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? May 21 $167 $0 -0%
Will Byron Donalds win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 20 $160 $0 -0%
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 19 $676 −$1 -0%
Will Tony Thurmond win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 17 $170 $0 -0%
Will Josh Hawley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 17 $182 $0 -0%
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 15 $285 $0 -0%
Will Cory Booker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 15 $325 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 15 $160 $0 -0%
Will Stephen Smith win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 15 $177 $0 -0%
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 14 $162 $0 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 13 $140 $0 -0%
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 13 $156 $0 +0%
Will Claudia López win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? May 11 $190 $0 -0%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 11 $478 −$1 -0%
Will Daniel Mercuri win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 10 $191 $0 -0%
Will Stephen Cloobeck win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 09 $171 $0 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 05 $155 $0 -0%
MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$6B one day after launch? May 05 $10 $0 +1%
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 04 $361 $0 -0%
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 03 $170 $0 -0%
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? May 03 $323 $0 -0%
Will Poland win Eurovision 2026? May 03 $184 $0 -0%
Will Estonia win Eurovision 2026? May 02 $128 $0 -0%
Will Aldo Rebelo win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 01 $171 $0 -0%
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 01 $483 −$1 -0%
Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 01 $139 $0 -0%
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 30 $150 $0 -0%
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 29 $518 −$1 -0%
Will Georgia win Eurovision 2026? Apr 22 $618 −$1 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 22 $139 $0 -0%
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 22 $153 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $27 1h
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $27 5h
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $26 5h
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $26 43h
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $20 2d
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $20 2d
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin SELL No 99¢ $28 2d
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin BUY No 99¢ $28 2d
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $26 2d
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $26 3d
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $20 3d
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $20 21d
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $24 22d
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $24 22d
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $28 22d
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $28 23d
Will Steve Bannon win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $24 23d
Will Steve Bannon win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $24 24d
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $184 24d
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $184 26d
Will John Fetterman win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $142 26d
Will John Fetterman win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $142 26d
Will Eduardo Leite win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 100¢ $169 26d
Will Eduardo Leite win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $169 28d
Will Brian Kemp win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $160 29d
Will Brian Kemp win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $160 29d
Will Rand Paul win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $140 30d
Will Rand Paul win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $140 30d
Will Tom Brady win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $137 30d
Will Tom Brady win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $137 30d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 443 history records