Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T23:07:25+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.5
score
16 0x1635…26bf other 9 markets active 1h ago coverage 205d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$1,222 (-45%) realized −$1,023 · open −$199
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -51% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -56% what you keep after slip
Net edge-56%after slip
Net WR14%break-even
Win rate43%3W / 4L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$301per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Kalshi-fit56%portable
Net worth$1,304now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 205d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
world 48% +$3
other 34% −$904
tech 18% −$500
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +14%
net ROI/market (all)-55.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d no closed markets
≤90d no closed markets
all 7 -50.9% -55.6% 43% 14% -52.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -55.6% 14% -52.9%
10% -59.8% 14% -57.4%
15% -63.7% 14% -61.6%
20% -67.2% 0% -65.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 91% · top 2 98% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI — too few recent
Fragile wins
67% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -51% · $-wt -48% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$68 vs −$351 · ×0.19 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.14 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

205d coverage
Net worth$1,304
Realized−$1,023
Unrealized−$199
Win rate (resolved)43%
Wins / losses3 / 4
Open positions2
Markets (closed)7 / 9
History coverage205d
Avg bet$301
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit56%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 7 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-29? Yes 8¢ 0¢ $100 $1 −$99 (-99%)
Exact Score: Germany 2 - 1 Paraguay? Yes 35¢ 0¢ $100 $0 −$100 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will another person/thing be TIME's Person of the Year for 2025? Dec 11 $205 −$205 -100%
Will Artificial Intelligence be TIME's Person of the Year for 2025? Dec 06 $500 −$500 -100%
Will Jensen Huang be TIME's Person of the Year for 2025? Dec 06 $500 −$500 -100%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia by March 31? Dec 06 $500 +$185 +37%
Will Hades 2 win Best Art Direction at the 2025 Game Awards? Dec 06 $100 +$4 +4%
Will Hollow Knight: Silksong win Best Independent Game at the 2025 Gam Dec 06 $200 −$200 -100%
Will Blue Prince win Best Independent Game at the 2025 Game Awards? Dec 06 $500 +$14 +3%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,303.64 · official $1,303.64 (match) · 11 history records