Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T09:22:56+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

16
0x1635…5624
other · 104 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
+$5,172 +3%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$7,728 · open +$6,651
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP Fresh edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist
Net worth$26,919
Realized−$7,728
Unrealized+$6,651
Win rate (resolved)79%
Wins / losses61 / 16
Whale WR (big bets)65%
Est. fees paid−$15
Open positions27
Markets (closed)77 / 104
Avg bet$1,734
Trades / day46.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit6%
Chart Positions 27 History 77 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$2,293
7 days+$6,457
14 days+$7,504
30 days−$8,169
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Cap launch a token by June 30, 2026? Yes 8¢ 57¢ $714 $4,858 +$4,144 (+580%)
Ostium FDV above $100M one day after launch? No 46¢ 58¢ $2,861 $3,617 +$756 (+26%)
o1 FDV above $200M one day after launch? No 64¢ 65¢ $2,932 $2,960 +$28 (+1%)
Cap FDV above $50M one day after launch? Yes 84¢ 92¢ $2,468 $2,689 +$221 (+9%)
Will Cap launch a token by December 31, 2026? Yes 95¢ 96¢ $1,446 $1,464 +$18 (+1%)
o1 FDV above $100M one day after launch? No 26¢ 24¢ $1,527 $1,432 −$95 (-6%)
Will Cap launch a token by September 30, 2026? Yes 81¢ 92¢ $1,068 $1,220 +$152 (+14%)
Will Nansen launch a token by December 31, 2027? Yes 48¢ 50¢ $922 $970 +$48 (+5%)
Will Yeet launch a token by December 31, 2026? No 63¢ 66¢ $896 $930 +$34 (+4%)
Will Cambria launch a token by September 30, 2026? Yes 57¢ 74¢ $542 $697 +$155 (+29%)
Will Cambria launch a token by December 31, 2026? Yes 81¢ 86¢ $647 $679 +$32 (+5%)
Will City Protocol launch a token by June 30, 2026? Yes 3¢ 5¢ $301 $640 +$339 (+113%)
Will Arcium launch a token by December 31, 2027? Yes 98¢ 99¢ $570 $575 +$5 (+1%)
Will Spark launch a token by December 31, 2027? Yes 35¢ 50¢ $379 $539 +$159 (+42%)
Will Cambria launch a token by June 30, 2026? Yes 19¢ 26¢ $386 $518 +$132 (+34%)
Cap FDV above $150M one day after launch? No 49¢ 64¢ $333 $432 +$99 (+30%)
Will Exponent launch a token by December 31, 2027? No 40¢ 46¢ $340 $400 +$60 (+18%)
Will Reya launch a token by June 30, 2026? Yes 4¢ 6¢ $247 $383 +$135 (+55%)
Will GRVT launch a token by June 30, 2026? Yes 12¢ 14¢ $324 $379 +$55 (+17%)
Will Cambria launch a token by December 31, 2027? Yes 92¢ 94¢ $345 $352 +$7 (+2%)
Will Cambria launch a token by June 30, 2027? Yes 84¢ 84¢ $348 $350 +$2 (+1%)
Will Arcium launch a token by June 30, 2026? Yes 44¢ 79¢ $187 $335 +$148 (+80%)
Cap FDV above $100M one day after launch? No 28¢ 38¢ $145 $197 +$53 (+36%)
Will Arcium launch a token by September 30, 2027? Yes 87¢ 99¢ $161 $183 +$22 (+14%)
Will Ostium launch a token by December 31, 2026? No 49¢ 68¢ $70 $97 +$27 (+38%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will City Protocol launch a token by December 31, 2026? Jun 12 $7,011 +$856 +12%
Will BULK launch a token by December 31, 2026? Jun 12 $4,667 +$314 +7%
Hyperbeat FDV above $25M one day after launch? Jun 12 $2,301 +$353 +15%
Will Surf launch a token by December 31, 2026? Jun 11 $1,215 +$219 +18%
Will Oro launch a token by December 31, 2027? Jun 11 $1,808 +$96 +5%
Tread FDV above $40M one day after launch Jun 11 $80 $0 -0%
Will Multipli.fi launch a token by December 31, 2026? Jun 11 $1,138 +$201 +18%
Will Ethereal launch a token by December 31, 2026? Jun 10 $211 +$18 +9%
Over $4M committed to the ALIGN public sale? Jun 10 $86 +$50 +58%
Will o1 launch a token by June 30, 2026? Jun 10 $99 +$73 +74%
Hyperbeat FDV above $10M one day after launch? Jun 10 $1,423 +$113 +8%
Tabi FDV above $100M one day after launch? Jun 09 $667 +$73 +11%
Will BULK launch a token by June 30, 2027? Jun 09 $1,612 +$36 +2%
Will Phantom launch a token by December 31, 2027? Jun 09 $1,077 +$86 +8%
Ethereal FDV above $25M one day after launch? Jun 09 $3,017 +$236 +8%
Over $2M committed to the ALIGN public sale? Jun 09 $683 +$558 +82%
Over $1M committed to the ALIGN public sale? Jun 09 $397 +$1,698 +427%
Will Rabby launch a token by December 31, 2027? Jun 09 $2,260 +$98 +4%
Will Curvance launch a token by June 30, 2027? Jun 09 $930 +$108 +12%
Will Curvance launch a token by December 31, 2026? Jun 09 $1,186 +$102 +9%
Will City Protocol launch a token by June 30, 2027? Jun 08 $1,527 +$196 +13%
Will Daylight launch a token by December 31, 2027? Jun 08 $2,744 +$145 +5%
Ostium FDV above $200M one day after launch? Jun 07 $1,191 +$61 +5%
Will Tempo launch a token by December 31, 2027? Jun 07 $464 +$8 +2%
Will Ethereal launch a token by June 30, 2027? Jun 07 $202 +$62 +31%
Will Propr launch a token by December 31, 2026? Jun 05 $4,535 +$689 +15%
Reya FDV above $200M one day after launch? Jun 05 $91 +$2 +2%
Will Puffpaw launch a token by September 30, 2026? Jun 05 $79 +$1 +2%
Will Reppo launch a token by December 31, 2026? Jun 05 $64 +$4 +6%
Will Reya launch a token by September 30, 2026? Jun 05 $312 +$51 +16%
Tea FDV above $80M one day after launch Jun 04 $3,158 +$829 +26%
Tea FDV above $300M one day after launch Jun 04 $972 +$46 +5%
Tea FDV above $100M one day after launch Jun 04 $451 +$132 +29%
Will Reya launch a token by December 31, 2027? Jun 03 $238 +$74 +31%
Will Decibel launch a token by December 31, 2027? Jun 03 $1,866 −$70 -4%
Will Cap launch a token by June 30, 2027? Jun 02 $1,413 +$213 +15%
Will Curvance launch a token by June 30, 2026? Jun 02 $242 +$77 +32%
Will Concrete launch a token by June 30, 2026? Jun 02 $412 +$56 +14%
Will Puffpaw launch a token by June 30, 2026? Jun 01 $97 +$13 +13%
Will Apyx launch a token by December 31, 2026? Jun 01 $138 +$37 +27%
Will Noble launch a token by December 31, 2026? Jun 01 $70 +$6 +8%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $14,439 −$1,714 -12%
Will Reya launch a token by December 31, 2026? Jun 01 $74 +$9 +13%
Tea FDV above $200M one day after launch Jun 01 $384 +$27 +7%
Will Tabi launch a token by December 31, 2027? Jun 01 $79 −$12 -15%
Will Symbiotic launch a token by December 31, 2026? Jun 01 $322 +$74 +23%
Will Tabi launch a token by December 31, 2026? Jun 01 $305 +$18 +6%
Will Tabi launch a token by June 30, 2027? Jun 01 $119 +$41 +34%
Will Hurupay launch a token by September 30, 2026? Jun 01 $250 +$17 +7%
Will Multipli.fi launch a token by June 30, 2026? Jun 01 $446 +$22 +5%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
other 89% −$605
crypto 10% −$1,397
sports 1% +$925
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Exponent launch a token by December 31, 2027? BUY No 43¢ $9 0m
Will Exponent launch a token by December 31, 2027? SELL No 45¢ $546 0m
Will GRVT launch a token by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 13¢ $43 1h
Will GRVT launch a token by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 13¢ $1 1h
Will GRVT launch a token by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 13¢ $14 1h
Will GRVT launch a token by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 13¢ $14 1h
Will GRVT launch a token by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 13¢ $15 1h
Will GRVT launch a token by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 13¢ $7 1h
Will GRVT launch a token by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 13¢ $10 1h
Will Nansen launch a token by December 31, 2027? BUY Yes 49¢ $2 1h
Will Nansen launch a token by December 31, 2027? BUY Yes 50¢ $11 1h
Will Cap launch a token by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 60¢ $102 2h
Will Reya launch a token by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 14¢ $3 2h
Will City Protocol launch a token by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 12¢ $13 2h
Will City Protocol launch a token by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $1 2h
Will City Protocol launch a token by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 3¢ $323 2h
Will City Protocol launch a token by December 31, 2026? SELL No 59¢ $211 2h
Will City Protocol launch a token by December 31, 2026? SELL No 62¢ $175 2h
Will City Protocol launch a token by December 31, 2026? SELL No 62¢ $44 2h
Will City Protocol launch a token by December 31, 2026? SELL No 62¢ $195 2h
Will City Protocol launch a token by December 31, 2026? BUY No 62¢ $17 2h
Will City Protocol launch a token by December 31, 2026? BUY No 58¢ $613 2h
Will Exponent launch a token by December 31, 2027? BUY No 44¢ $41 2h
Will Exponent launch a token by December 31, 2027? BUY No 44¢ $2 2h
Will Exponent launch a token by December 31, 2027? SELL No 46¢ $290 2h
Will Multipli.fi launch a token by June 30, 2027? SELL Yes 56¢ $3 2h
Will Cambria launch a token by June 30, 2027? BUY Yes 84¢ $352 2h
Will Cambria launch a token by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 81¢ $656 2h
Will BULK launch a token by December 31, 2026? SELL No 74¢ $4 2h
Will BULK launch a token by December 31, 2026? BUY No 74¢ $4 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +47%
net ROI/market (all)+1.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 29 +29.9% +17.5% 97% 45% +4.1%
≤30d 74 +12.4% +1.7% 81% 47% -13.6%
≤90d 77 +11.8% +1.1% 79% 47% -13.2%
all 77 +11.8% +1.1% 79% 47% -13.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover46.5 tr/day
realistic slip~15%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +1.1% 47% -13.2%
10% -8.5% 25% -21.5%
15% ← realistic here -17.4% 10% -29.1%
20% -25.5% 10% -36.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $26,919.37 · official $26,919.37 (match) · 1912 history records