Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T06:45:42+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5

score

16 0x1634…8773 sports 33 markets active 2h ago coverage 13d

RISKYcopy with care Fresh edge⚠ Small sample

! limited sample (<25 closed)

Total PnL −$51 (-6%) realized −$50 · open −$1

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +50% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt +30% what you keep after slip

Net edge+30%after slip

Net WR32%break-even

Win rate36%8W / 14L

Drawdown58%max

Avg bet$24per market

Trades / day3.7pace

Fees−$8est.

Kalshi-fit58%portable

Net worth$62now

Equity curve

realized PnL

1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All

2 days+$69

7 days+$162

14 days+$123

30 days+$123

Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +32%

net ROI/market (all)+35.5%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	17	+85.6%	+67.9%	41%	35%	+28.0%
≤30d	22	+49.8%	+35.5%	36%	32%	+9.4%
≤90d	22	+49.8%	+35.5%	36%	32%	+9.4%
all	22	+49.8%	+35.5%	36%	32%	+9.4%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover3.7 tr/day

realistic slip~7%

edge survives to15%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	+35.5%	32%	+9.4%
10%	+22.5%	32%	-1.1%
15%	+10.7%	32%	-10.7%
20%	-0.1%	27%	-19.4%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 32% · top 2 49% broad-based profit

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +21% fresh edge ✓

Fragile wins

12% wins margin < slip solid win margins

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +50% · $-wt +21% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early -4% → late +103% mixed

Add-ons / DCA

1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$35 vs −$11 · ×3.15 wins bigger than losses

Profit factor

×1.8 per $1 lost it wins $1.8

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

13d coverage

Net worth$62

Realized−$50

Unrealized−$1

Win rate (resolved)36%

Wins / losses8 / 14

Est. fees paid−$8

Open positions2

Markets (closed)22 / 33

History coverage13d

Avg bet$24

Trades / day3.7

Drawdown58%

Kalshi-fit58%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 2 History 22 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	8¢	8¢	$33	$33	−$0 (-1%)
Brazil vs. Japan: O/U 2.5	Over	48¢	47¢	$30	$29	−$1 (-2%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 7 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? AND Will France win on 2026-06-26?	Jun 27	$0	$0	+176%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-26?	Jun 27	$51	−$16	-32%
South Africa vs. Korea Republic: O/U 2.5 AND Will South Africa win on	Jun 26	$10	+$89	+866%
Japan vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5 AND Japan vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score	Jun 26	$34	−$1	-4%
Exact Score: Japan 2 - 1 Sweden?	Jun 25	$21	−$3	-15%
Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2026?	Jun 25	$20	$0	-1%
Exact Score: England 1 - 0 Ghana?	Jun 23	$15	−$15	-98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET	Jun 23	$5	−$5	-94%
Spread: Portugal (-1.5)	Jun 23	$20	+$1	+6%
Exact Score: Jordan 1 - 2 Algeria?	Jun 23	$10	+$45	+442%
Will Norway vs. Senegal end in a draw?	Jun 23	$15	−$15	-98%
Exact Score: Belgium 2 - 0 IR Iran?	Jun 21	$10	−$10	-98%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) AND Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? AND Will Belgiu	Jun 21	$26	+$37	+146%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? AND Japan to score first vs. Tunisia?	Jun 21	$30	+$16	+51%
Spread: Japan (-1.5) AND Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 2.5	Jun 21	$20	+$47	+231%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? AND Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21?	Jun 21	$102	−$8	-8%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 2.5 AND Will Netherlands win on 2026-06	Jun 20	$1	$0	-3%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19?	Jun 20	$118	+$42	+36%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19?	Jun 20	$31	−$30	-98%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18?	Jun 19	$23	−$22	-96%
Exact Score: Mexico 0 - 2 Korea Republic?	Jun 19	$10	−$10	-97%
Exact Score: Germany 3 - 2 Curaçao?	Jun 14	$20	−$19	-97%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Brazil vs. Japan: O/U 2.5	BUY Over	48¢	$30	1h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-26?	SELL Yes	27¢	$35	5h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-26?	BUY Yes	38¢	$51	6h
Kylian Mbappé: 1+ goals AND Erling Haaland: 1+ goals AND Will Norway v	BUY	6¢	$10	14h
Erling Haaland: 1+ goals AND Exact Score: Norway 3 - 3 France?	BUY	4¢	$1	14h
Erling Haaland: 1+ goals AND Exact Score: Norway 3 - 3 France?	BUY	5¢	$0	14h
Norway vs. France: Both Teams to Score AND Will Senegal vs. Iraq end i	BUY	10¢	$0	16h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? AND Will France win on 2026-06-26?	BUY	36¢	$0	16h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? AND Will Belgium win on 2026-06-26? AND	BUY	2¢	$32	22h
South Africa vs. Korea Republic: O/U 2.5 AND Will South Africa win on	SELL	55¢	$99	27h
Türkiye vs. United States: O/U 2.5 AND Spread: Türkiye (-1.5)	BUY	12¢	$20	28h
Japan vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5 AND Japan vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score	SELL	49¢	$33	30h
Japan vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5 AND Japan vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score	BUY	49¢	$34	32h
Exact Score: Japan 2 - 1 Sweden?	SELL Yes	9¢	$18	32h
Exact Score: Japan 2 - 1 Sweden?	BUY Yes	10¢	$21	32h
Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2026?	SELL No	93¢	$20	46h
Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2026?	BUY No	93¢	$20	46h
Exact Score: England 1 - 0 Ghana?	BUY Yes	23¢	$15	3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET	BUY Up	1¢	$5	3d
Spread: Portugal (-1.5)	SELL Portugal	68¢	$21	3d
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 4.5 AND Spread: Portugal (-1.5)	BUY	53¢	$20	3d
Exact Score: Jordan 1 - 2 Algeria?	BUY Yes	18¢	$10	4d
Spread: Portugal (-1.5)	BUY Portugal	63¢	$20	4d
Will Norway vs. Senegal end in a draw?	BUY Yes	29¢	$15	4d
Exact Score: Belgium 2 - 0 IR Iran?	BUY Yes	14¢	$10	5d
Spread: Spain (-2.5) AND Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? AND Will Belgiu	SELL	61¢	$63	5d
Spread: Japan (-1.5) AND Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 2.5	SELL	94¢	$68	6d
Spread: Japan (-1.5) AND Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 2.5	BUY	28¢	$20	6d
Spread: Spain (-2.5) AND Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? AND Will Belgiu	BUY	24¢	$26	6d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? AND Japan to score first vs. Tunisia?	BUY	65¢	$30	6d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $62.39 · official $62.39 (match) · 58 history records