Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T00:05:41+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
16 0x1634…5a92 weather 136 markets active 1h ago coverage 92d
TRAPdo not copy weather specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$7 (+0%) realized +$7 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -34% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -41% what you keep after slip
Net edge-41%after slip
Net WR1%break-even
Win rate63%85W / 50L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$12per market
Trades / day2.5pace
Kalshi-fit96%portable
Net worth$30now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days−$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 89% −$11
other 9% −$9
culture 1% +$1
finance 1% +$1
politics 1% +$1
world 1% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +1%
net ROI/market (all)-40.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 1 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 134 -34.7% -40.9% 63% 1% -10.9%
all 135 -34.4% -40.6% 63% 1% -10.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -40.6% 1% -10.8%
10% -46.3% 0% -19.3%
15% -51.5% 0% -27.1%
20% -56.3% 0% -34.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 15% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
95% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -34% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late -69% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.32 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.54 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

92d coverage
Net worth$30
Realized+$7
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)63%
Wins / losses85 / 50
Open positions1
Markets (closed)135 / 136
History coverage92d
Avg bet$12
Trades / day2.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit96%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 135 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-18? No 100¢ 100¢ $30 $30 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 48 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Hyperliquid dip to $24 in May? May 29 $85 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 74-75°F on April 20 Apr 28 $15 $0 -2%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 26°C on April 20? Apr 21 $10 $0 -2%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 76-77°F on April 19? Apr 21 $10 $0 -2%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 29°C on April 20? Apr 21 $14 $0 -2%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on April 20? Apr 21 $10 $0 -1%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on April 17? Apr 20 $13 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 20°C on April 20? Apr 20 $13 $0 -1%
Will the highest temperature in Lagos be 30°C on April 19? Apr 20 $10 $0 -2%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 23°C on April 19? Apr 19 $10 $0 -2%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 30°C on April 18? Apr 19 $10 $0 -2%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 64-65°F on April 19 Apr 19 $14 $0 -2%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 14°C on April 18? Apr 19 $14 $0 -2%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 30°C on April 18? Apr 19 $14 $0 -2%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 22°C on April 18? Apr 19 $14 $0 -2%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 15°C on April 18? Apr 19 $12 $0 -2%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 27°C on April 19? Apr 19 $15 $0 -2%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 18°C on April 18? Apr 19 $12 $0 -2%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be 94°F or higher on April 16? Apr 18 $14 $0 -2%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 74-75°F on April 16 Apr 18 $14 −$14 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 80-81°F on April 16? Apr 18 $14 $0 -1%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 80-81°F on April 17? Apr 18 $11 $0 -2%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 21°C on April 17? Apr 18 $12 $0 -2%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 50-51°F on April 17? Apr 18 $10 $0 -2%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 16°C on April 16? Apr 17 $10 $0 -2%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 8°C or below on April 16? Apr 17 $11 $0 -1%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 43°C on April 16? Apr 17 $12 $0 -1%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 18°C on April 16? Apr 16 $10 $0 -1%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be 64°F or higher on Apr Apr 16 $13 $0 -2%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 26°C on April 15? Apr 16 $11 $0 -2%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 66-67°F on April 15 Apr 16 $13 $0 -1%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 84-85°F on April 15? Apr 16 $14 $0 -2%
Will the highest temperature in Jakarta be 30°C on April 16? Apr 16 $11 $0 -1%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 74-75°F on April 15? Apr 16 $10 $0 -1%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 19°C on April 16? Apr 16 $10 $0 -1%
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 32°C on April 14? Apr 15 $10 $0 -2%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 62-63°F on Apri Apr 15 $12 $0 -1%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 18°C on April 14? Apr 15 $12 $0 -2%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 9°C on April 15? Apr 15 $10 $0 -1%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 21°C on April 14? Apr 14 $12 $0 -2%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be 64°F or higher on April 13? Apr 14 $12 $0 -1%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 39°C on April 13? Apr 14 $15 $0 -1%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 76-77°F on April 13 Apr 14 $13 $0 -2%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 18°C on April 13? Apr 14 $10 $0 -1%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 11°C on April 13? Apr 14 $10 $0 -2%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 19°C on April 14? Apr 14 $12 $0 -1%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 66-67°F on April 12? Apr 13 $14 $0 -1%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 19°C on April 13? Apr 13 $12 $0 -2%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 30°C on April 13? Apr 13 $13 $0 -1%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 14°C on April 10? Apr 12 $10 $0 +2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 100¢ $30 1h
Will Hyperliquid dip to $24 in May? SELL No 100¢ $85 20d
Will Hyperliquid dip to $24 in May? BUY No 100¢ $85 20d
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 74-75°F on April 20 BUY Yes 2¢ $0 59d
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on April 20? BUY No 1¢ $0 59d
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on April 20? BUY Yes 99¢ $10 59d
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 74-75°F on April 20 BUY No 98¢ $15 59d
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 29°C on April 20? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 60d
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 29°C on April 20? BUY No 98¢ $14 60d
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 26°C on April 20? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 60d
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 26°C on April 20? BUY No 98¢ $10 60d
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 20°C on April 20? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 60d
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 20°C on April 20? BUY No 99¢ $13 60d
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 64-65°F on April 19 BUY Yes 2¢ $0 60d
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 64-65°F on April 19 BUY No 98¢ $14 60d
Will the highest temperature in Lagos be 30°C on April 19? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 60d
Will the highest temperature in Lagos be 30°C on April 19? BUY No 98¢ $10 61d
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 76-77°F on April 19? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 61d
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 27°C on April 19? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 61d
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 27°C on April 19? BUY No 98¢ $15 61d
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 76-77°F on April 19? BUY No 98¢ $10 61d
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 23°C on April 19? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 61d
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 23°C on April 19? BUY No 98¢ $10 61d
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 14°C on April 18? BUY No 2¢ $0 61d
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 15°C on April 18? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 61d
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 14°C on April 18? BUY Yes 98¢ $14 61d
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 15°C on April 18? BUY No 98¢ $12 61d
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 18°C on April 18? BUY No 2¢ $0 61d
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 18°C on April 18? BUY No 2¢ $0 61d
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 18°C on April 18? BUY No 2¢ $0 61d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $29.98 · official $29.98 (match) · 344 history records