Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T11:00:27+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
16 0x1633…1e55 sports 265 markets active 2h ago coverage 74d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$534 (+4%) realized +$536 · open −$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR29%break-even
Win rate29%72W / 180L
Drawdown78%max
Avg bet$53per market
Trades / day9.6pace
Fees−$183est.
Kalshi-fit57%portable
Net worth$98now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$563
14 days−$180
30 days+$531
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 52% +$1,570
other 46% −$767
crypto 1% −$54
world 1% −$75
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +29%
net ROI/market (all)-3.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 15 +26.1% +14.0% 20% 20% -59.1%
≤30d 56 +38.4% +25.2% 36% 36% +1.8%
≤90d 252 +6.9% -3.3% 29% 29% -4.9%
all 252 +6.9% -3.3% 29% 29% -4.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.6 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -3.3% 29% -4.9%
10% -12.6% 27% -14.0%
15% -21.0% 27% -22.3%
20% -28.7% 27% -30.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 11% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +5% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +7% · $-wt +5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +12% → late +1% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
2.3 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$127 vs −$47 · ×2.7 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.08 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

74d coverage
Net worth$98
Realized+$536
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)29%
Wins / losses72 / 180
Est. fees paid−$183
Open positions1
Markets (closed)252 / 265
History coverage74d
Avg bet$53
Trades / day9.6
Drawdown78%
Kalshi-fit57%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 252 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Croatia vs. Ghana end in a draw? Yes 31¢ 30¢ $100 $98 −$2 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Czechia vs. Mexico end in a draw? Jun 25 $102 −$102 -100%
Switzerland vs. Canada: Draw at halftime? AND Czechia vs. Mexico: Draw Jun 25 $21 +$203 +986%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $51 −$51 -100%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $102 −$102 -100%
Panama vs. Croatia: Draw at halftime? AND Colombia vs. DR Congo: Draw Jun 24 $20 +$96 +467%
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: Draw at halftime? Jun 24 $51 −$51 -100%
Will Panama vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 24 $52 −$52 -100%
Will Jordan vs. Algeria end in a draw? Jun 23 $32 +$14 +43%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $204 −$204 -100%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $50 −$50 -100%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $85 −$5 -5%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 21 $54 −$54 -100%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 21 $50 −$50 -100%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? Jun 21 $51 −$51 -100%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-20? Jun 21 $103 −$103 -100%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? Jun 20 $101 −$101 -100%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-18? Jun 20 $100 −$100 -100%
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw? Jun 20 $51 −$51 -100%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $105 −$105 -100%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $62 −$62 -100%
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Jun 20 $27 −$27 -100%
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? Jun 18 $101 −$101 -100%
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 17 $53 −$53 -100%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $105 +$165 +158%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $52 −$52 -100%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $50 −$50 -100%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $51 −$47 -94%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $52 −$50 -96%
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Jun 16 $56 +$144 +257%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $99 +$175 +177%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $30 −$30 -100%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $101 +$229 +226%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 15 $57 +$143 +250%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $52 +$68 +129%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 14 $106 +$194 +183%
Will Haiti vs. Scotland end in a draw? Jun 14 $52 −$52 -100%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $52 −$52 -100%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $54 +$196 +365%
Exact Score: Canada 1 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 12 $51 +$279 +550%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $57 +$143 +250%
Shanghai Sharks vs. Zhejiang Lions Jun 08 $24 −$24 -100%
Roland Garros WTA: Maja Chwalinska vs Mirra Andreeva Jun 08 $53 −$53 -100%
Will Flavio Cobolli win the 2026 Men's French Open? Jun 08 $103 −$103 -100%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 06 $28 +$48 +170%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 04 $49 +$91 +186%
Roland Garros ATP: Jakub Mensik vs Joao Fonseca Jun 04 $33 +$67 +203%
Zhejiang Lions vs. Shanghai Sharks Jun 01 $99 +$188 +190%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the NBA Western Conference Finals? May 31 $80 +$153 +190%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? May 31 $405 −$405 -100%
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 31 $313 +$469 +150%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Croatia vs. Ghana end in a draw? BUY Yes 31¢ $102 1h
Norway vs. France: Draw at halftime? AND Will Norway vs. France end in BUY 14¢ $50 18h
Cabo Verde vs. Saudi Arabia: Draw at halftime? AND New Zealand vs. Bel BUY 14¢ $50 21h
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: Draw at halftime? AND Sweden leading at halft BUY 6¢ $31 41h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? AND Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06- BUY 7¢ $21 41h
Ecuador vs. Germany: Draw at halftime? AND Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire: BUY 12¢ $51 41h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-24? BUY No 29¢ $102 2d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? BUY No 26¢ $51 2d
Will Czechia vs. Mexico end in a draw? BUY Yes 25¢ $102 2d
Switzerland vs. Canada: Draw at halftime? AND Czechia vs. Mexico: Draw BUY 9¢ $21 2d
Will Panama vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $52 3d
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: Draw at halftime? BUY Yes 27¢ $51 3d
Panama vs. Croatia: Draw at halftime? AND Colombia vs. DR Congo: Draw BUY 17¢ $20 4d
Will Jordan vs. Algeria end in a draw? SELL Yes 46¢ $45 4d
Will Jordan vs. Algeria end in a draw? BUY Yes 31¢ $32 4d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY No 33¢ $50 4d
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 29¢ $86 4d
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 44¢ $80 4d
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 45¢ $85 4d
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 29¢ $59 4d
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 29¢ $59 4d
Will Jordan vs. Algeria end in a draw? AND Will Senegal win on 2026-06 BUY 7¢ $21 5d
Argentina vs. Austria: Draw at halftime? AND Jordan vs. Algeria: Draw BUY 1¢ $21 5d
Argentina vs. Austria: Draw at halftime? AND Jordan vs. Algeria: Draw BUY 7¢ $21 5d
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? AND Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: Draw at half BUY 27¢ $51 5d
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? AND Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? AND Wi BUY 40¢ $90 5d
Spread: Spain (-2.5) AND Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? AND Uruguay vs. BUY 6¢ $51 6d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? AND Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20 BUY 16¢ $51 6d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY No 44¢ $54 6d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY No 35¢ $50 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $98.39 · official $98.39 (match) · 953 history records