Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T07:40:57+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
16 0x1633…190c weather 704 markets active 0h ago coverage 26d ⚠
BOTnot copyable weather specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 25d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (110 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$21,454 (-3%) realized −$21,456 · open +$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate99%692W / 7L
Whale WR98%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1,133per market
Trades / day109.7pace
Fees−$11est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$3,540now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 26d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 78% +$898
sports 21% −$4,437
other 1% +$436
politics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (110 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-7.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 100 +1.9% -7.8% 99% 1% -9.2%
≤30d 699 +2.7% -7.1% 99% 0% -9.9%
≤90d 699 +2.7% -7.1% 99% 0% -9.9%
all 699 +2.7% -7.1% 99% 0% -9.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover109.7 tr/day
realistic slip~15%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -7.1% 0% -9.9%
10% -16.0% 0% -18.5%
15% ← realistic here -24.1% 0% -26.4%
20% -31.6% 0% -33.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 40% · top 2 52% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +3% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 98% (≥$1,182) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +6% → late -1% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
4.0 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$725 · ×0.0 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.39 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

26d coverage
Net worth$3,540
Realized−$21,456
Unrealized+$2
Win rate (resolved)99%
Wins / losses692 / 7
Whale WR (big bets)98%
Est. fees paid−$11
Open positions6
Markets (closed)699 / 704
History coverage26d ⚠
Avg bet$1,133
Trades / day109.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 699 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C on June 17? No 100¢ 100¢ $1,148 $1,149 +$1 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on June 17? No 100¢ 100¢ $1,098 $1,099 +$1 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 37°C on June 17? No 100¢ 100¢ $797 $797 +$0 (+0%)
Will Donald Trump post 60-79 Truth Social posts from June 12 to June 19, 2026? No 100¢ 100¢ $309 $309 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on June 17? No 100¢ 100¢ $155 $155 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 35°C on June 17? No 100¢ 100¢ $30 $30 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 6 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Solana Up or Down on May 18? Jun 17 $7 −$7 -94%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 92-93°F on June 16? Jun 17 $1,104 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on June 16? Jun 17 $3 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 76-77°F on Ju Jun 17 $401 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 74-75°F on Ju Jun 17 $1,907 +$2 +0%
Will the highest temperature in London be 26°C on June 16? Jun 16 $10,103 +$10 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 21°C on June 16? Jun 16 $4,362 +$7 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 38°C on June 16? Jun 16 $559 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on June 16? Jun 16 $6,177 +$6 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 24°C on June 16? Jun 16 $108 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 25°C on June 16? Jun 16 $114 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 16? Jun 16 $4,822 +$5 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 16? Jun 16 $474 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C on June 16? Jun 16 $735 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on June 16? Jun 16 $772 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 72-73°F on Ju Jun 16 $357 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 92-93°F on June 15? Jun 16 $277 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 18°C on June 15? Jun 16 $6,671 +$7 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 17°C on June 15? Jun 16 $6,471 +$6 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 16°C on June 15? Jun 16 $1,736 +$2 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 15°C on June 15? Jun 16 $310 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 21°C on June 15? Jun 15 $2,560 +$2 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 36°C on June 15? Jun 15 $356 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 21°C on June 15? Jun 15 $5,531 +$6 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 15? Jun 15 $1,735 +$2 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on June 14? Jun 15 $2,039 +$2 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be 81°F or below on June 14? Jun 15 $2,520 +$3 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 88-89°F on June 14? Jun 15 $3,893 +$4 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be 79°F or below on June 14? Jun 15 $2,520 +$3 +0%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 88-89°F on Ju Jun 15 $200 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 22°C on June 14? Jun 15 $817 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 21°C on June 14? Jun 15 $1,076 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 20°C on June 14? Jun 15 $437 $0 +0%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $282 +$778 +276%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 21°C on June 14? Jun 15 $333 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in London be 20°C on June 14? Jun 15 $176 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in London be 17°C or below on June 14? Jun 15 $2,659 +$3 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 20°C on June 14? Jun 14 $783 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 33°C on June 14? Jun 14 $1,905 +$2 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 34°C on June 14? Jun 14 $554 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 16°C on June 14? Jun 14 $661 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 15°C on June 14? Jun 14 $489 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 24°C on June 14? Jun 14 $3,579 +$4 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 20°C on June 14? Jun 14 $369 $0 +0%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $355 −$347 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 36°C on June 14? Jun 14 $1,300 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 35°C on June 14? Jun 14 $1,057 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on June 14? Jun 14 $2,203 +$3 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C on June 14? Jun 14 $2,964 +$3 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 13°C on June 13? Jun 14 $263 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C on June 17? BUY No 100¢ $19 4m
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on June 17? BUY No 100¢ $10 8m
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 37°C on June 17? BUY No 100¢ $6 17m
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on June 17? BUY No 100¢ $100 25m
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on June 17? BUY No 100¢ $15 25m
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on June 17? BUY No 100¢ $3 35m
Will Donald Trump post 60-79 Truth Social posts from June 12 to June 1 BUY No 100¢ $309 45m
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 37°C on June 17? BUY No 100¢ $106 49m
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 37°C on June 17? BUY No 100¢ $20 50m
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 37°C on June 17? BUY No 100¢ $19 50m
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 37°C on June 17? BUY No 100¢ $14 50m
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 37°C on June 17? BUY No 100¢ $8 51m
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 37°C on June 17? BUY No 100¢ $1 53m
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 37°C on June 17? BUY No 100¢ $1 55m
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 37°C on June 17? BUY No 100¢ $5 59m
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 37°C on June 17? BUY No 100¢ $20 1h
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 37°C on June 17? BUY No 100¢ $18 1h
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 37°C on June 17? BUY No 100¢ $15 1h
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 37°C on June 17? BUY No 100¢ $58 1h
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 37°C on June 17? BUY No 100¢ $240 1h
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 37°C on June 17? BUY No 100¢ $8 1h
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 37°C on June 17? BUY No 100¢ $6 1h
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 37°C on June 17? BUY No 100¢ $254 1h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on June 17? BUY No 100¢ $6 1h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on June 17? BUY No 100¢ $5 1h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on June 17? BUY No 100¢ $6 1h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on June 17? BUY No 100¢ $971 1h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C on June 17? BUY No 100¢ $1,129 1h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on June 17? BUY No 100¢ $29 1h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on June 17? BUY No 100¢ $8 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $3,539.79 · official $3,539.50 (match) · 3500 history records