Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T20:19:07+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
16 0x1630…d11c crypto 178 markets active 1h ago coverage 11d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 10d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (312 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$6,843 (-83%) realized −$6,843 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -10% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -30% what you keep after slip
Net edge-30%after slip
Net WR10%break-even
Win rate37%65W / 113L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$46per market
Trades / day312.3pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 11d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$421
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (312 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +10%
net ROI/market (all)-18.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 118 -13.4% -21.6% 30% 11% -16.8%
≤30d 178 -9.7% -18.3% 37% 10% -13.8%
≤90d 178 -9.7% -18.3% 37% 10% -13.8%
all 178 -9.7% -18.3% 37% 10% -13.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover312.3 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -18.3% 10% -13.8%
10% ← realistic here -26.1% 6% -22.0%
15% -33.3% 5% -29.5%
20% -39.8% 4% -36.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 18% · top 2 33% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -5% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
72% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -10% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -8% → late -12% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
13.9 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$7 · ×0.81 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.47 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

11d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$6,843
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)37%
Wins / losses65 / 113
Open positions0
Markets (closed)178 / 178
History coverage11d ⚠
Avg bet$46
Trades / day312.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 178 Trades
no open positions (3 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 16 $34 +$6 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 16 $36 −$3 -9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 16 $33 −$9 -26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 16 $26 −$2 -8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 16 $34 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 16 $35 −$2 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 16 $44 −$33 -76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Jun 16 $12 −$5 -46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Jun 16 $8 −$3 -31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 16 $67 −$4 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 16 $44 −$2 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 16 $19 +$13 +71%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 16 $96 −$12 -13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 16 $93 −$4 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 16 $47 +$55 +118%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 16 $25 −$6 -24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 16 $61 −$1 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 16 $47 −$5 -10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 16 $60 +$9 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 15 $11 +$1 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 14 $13 −$1 -7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 14 $35 −$2 -7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Jun 14 $12 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 14 $11 +$14 +127%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 14 $22 −$9 -39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 14 $12 −$4 -38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Jun 14 $18 −$7 -42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET Jun 14 $109 −$18 -16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Jun 14 $106 −$4 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Jun 14 $39 −$10 -26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Jun 13 $32 −$2 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Jun 13 $30 −$3 -10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 13 $37 −$10 -28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Jun 13 $81 −$8 -10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Jun 13 $85 −$1 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Jun 13 $55 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 13 $11 −$6 -55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 13 $19 $0 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 13 $23 −$1 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 13 $104 −$10 -10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 13 $31 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET Jun 13 $2 −$1 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Jun 13 $16 −$13 -81%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 13 $26 −$1 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 13 $18 −$1 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 13 $36 $0 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 13 $65 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Jun 13 $47 −$9 -19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Jun 13 $39 −$1 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Jun 13 $7 −$3 -46%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET BUY Down 88¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET BUY Up 16¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET BUY Up 16¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET BUY Up 16¢ $0 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET BUY Up 19¢ $0 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET BUY Up 19¢ $0 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET BUY Up 19¢ $0 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET BUY Up 19¢ $0 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET BUY Up 19¢ $0 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET SELL Down 46¢ $11 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET BUY Down 48¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET BUY Down 48¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET BUY Down 48¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET BUY Down 48¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET BUY Down 48¢ $6 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET BUY Down 48¢ $6 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET BUY Down 48¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET BUY Down 48¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET SELL Down 29¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET SELL Down 28¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $0 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $8 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $8 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $8 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET SELL Down 25¢ $1 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records