Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T06:30:36+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
16 0x162f…f6da crypto 343 markets active 7d ago coverage 43d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$27 (-1%) realized −$27 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR46%break-even
Win rate55%188W / 155L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$7per market
Trades / day8.9pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$106
14 days−$155
30 days−$27
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$71
weather 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +46%
net ROI/market (all)-16.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 -33.7% -40.0% 33% 33% -79.5%
≤30d 256 -1.8% -11.1% 54% 53% -10.7%
≤90d 343 -7.4% -16.2% 55% 46% -12.4%
all 343 -7.4% -16.2% 55% 46% -12.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover8.9 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -16.2% 46% -12.4%
10% -24.2% 45% -20.8%
15% -31.5% 41% -28.4%
20% -38.2% 37% -35.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 14% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
15% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -8% → late -7% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$6 · ×0.76 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.93 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

43d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$27
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)55%
Wins / losses188 / 155
Open positions0
Markets (closed)343 / 343
History coverage43d
Avg bet$7
Trades / day8.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 343 Trades
no open positions (120 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 10 $5 +$6 +114%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 10 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 10 $83 −$83 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 10 $5 +$5 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 10 $5 +$5 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Jun 10 $15 −$15 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 10 $8 −$8 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 10 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 10 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 09 $5 +$6 +119%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 09 $5 +$5 +105%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 09 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 09 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 09 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 09 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 09 $5 +$6 +124%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Jun 09 $8 +$4 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 09 $5 +$5 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 09 $8 +$5 +63%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 09 $5 −$5 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 09 $5 +$2 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 09 $16 +$20 +126%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 09 $8 −$6 -76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 09 $5 +$4 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Jun 09 $5 +$2 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET Jun 09 $5 +$2 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Jun 09 $5 +$5 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Jun 09 $8 +$4 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 09 $12 +$15 +119%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Jun 09 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Jun 09 $20 −$20 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Jun 09 $83 −$80 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Jun 09 $16 −$15 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Jun 09 $8 −$8 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 09 $5 −$5 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 08 $5 +$5 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 08 $5 +$3 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 08 $15 −$15 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 08 $8 −$8 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 08 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 08 $5 +$5 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 08 $5 +$5 +105%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 08 $5 +$4 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Jun 08 $15 +$12 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Jun 08 $8 −$8 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 08 $16 +$33 +208%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Jun 08 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Jun 08 $8 −$8 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Jun 08 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 07 $5 +$4 +68%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET BUY Up 45¢ $5 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $3 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET BUY Up 44¢ $2 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $5 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $5 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET BUY Up 43¢ $78 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET BUY Up 43¢ $5 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET BUY Up 53¢ $10 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET BUY Up 65¢ $5 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET BUY Up 25¢ $3 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET BUY Up 32¢ $5 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $5 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $5 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET BUY Up 44¢ $5 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET BUY Up 47¢ $5 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $5 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET BUY Up 56¢ $5 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET BUY Up 40¢ $5 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET BUY Up 62¢ $5 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET SELL Up 66¢ $5 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET BUY Up 53¢ $8 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $5 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $13 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET BUY Up 59¢ $8 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET BUY Up 68¢ $5 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET BUY Up 67¢ $5 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET BUY Up 42¢ $16 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET SELL Up 55¢ $2 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET BUY Up 62¢ $8 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET BUY Up 53¢ $5 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 620 history records