Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T06:28:32+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
16 0x162f…978f politics 11 markets active 2h ago coverage 21d
RISKYcopy with care politics specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample⚠ Covers last 21d only
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ bot/MM pace (161 trades/day) — uncopyable
Total PnL −$9,816 (-32%) realized −$4,075 · open −$5,741
Gross ROI / mkt +31% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -3% what you keep after slip
Net edge-3%after slip
Net WR100%break-even
Win rate100%2W / 0L
Drawdown0%max
Avg bet$2,793per market
Trades / day161.4pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$12,482now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 21d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 100% −$5,514
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +100%
net ROI/market (all)+18.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 2 +31.0% +18.5% 100% 100% +6.8%
≤90d 2 +31.0% +18.5% 100% 100% +6.8%
all 2 +31.0% +18.5% 100% 100% +6.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover161.4 tr/day
realistic slip~15%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +18.5% 100% +6.8%
10% +7.2% 50% -3.4%
15% ← realistic here -3.2% 50% -12.7%
20% -12.7% 0% -21.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 93% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +18% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +31% · $-wt +18% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
188.2 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$114 vs — no data
Profit factor
no data
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

21d coverage
Net worth$12,482
Realized−$4,075
Unrealized−$5,741
Win rate (resolved)100%
Wins / losses2 / 0
Open positions9
Markets (closed)2 / 11
History coverage21d ⚠
Avg bet$2,793
Trades / day161.4
Drawdown0%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 9 History 2 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Yes 15¢ 14¢ $3,174 $2,997 −$177 (-6%)
Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Yes $6,286 $2,619 −$3,667 (-58%)
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? No 51¢ 48¢ $2,338 $2,239 −$100 (-4%)
Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Yes $2,558 $2,209 −$348 (-14%)
Will Camilo Santana win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Yes $1,442 $851 −$591 (-41%)
Will Flavio Bolsonaro qualify for Brazil's presidential runoff? No 43¢ 32¢ $950 $703 −$247 (-26%)
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Yes $966 $590 −$376 (-39%)
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva qualify for Brazil's presidential runoff? No 25¢ 14¢ $465 $255 −$210 (-45%)
Will Fernando Haddad qualify for Brazil's presidential runoff? Yes 14¢ $43 $18 −$25 (-58%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Jun 08 $1,220 +$211 +17%
Will Geraldo Alckmin win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 04 $37 +$17 +45%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Camilo Santana win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL Yes $1 2h
Will Camilo Santana win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL Yes $1 2h
Will Camilo Santana win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL Yes $1 2h
Will Camilo Santana win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL Yes $1 2h
Will Camilo Santana win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL Yes $1 2h
Will Camilo Santana win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL Yes $1 2h
Will Camilo Santana win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL Yes $1 3h
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL Yes $1 3h
Will Camilo Santana win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL Yes $5 3h
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential ele BUY No 48¢ $134 3h
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential ele BUY No 48¢ $48 3h
Will Camilo Santana win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL Yes $2 3h
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential ele BUY No 48¢ $6 4h
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential ele BUY No 48¢ $12 4h
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL Yes $1 4h
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL Yes $1 4h
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL Yes $1 5h
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL Yes $1 5h
Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL Yes $1 5h
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL Yes $1 5h
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL Yes $1 5h
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL Yes $1 5h
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL Yes $1 5h
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL Yes $1 5h
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL Yes $1 10h
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL Yes $2 10h
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY Yes $1 10h
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY Yes $1 10h
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY Yes $1 11h
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL Yes $1 11h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $12,481.94 · official $12,481.94 (match) · 3500 history records