Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T09:17:15+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

16
0x162f…798d
world · 79 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
+$18,108 +2%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$15,327 · open +$57,648
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP world specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist
Net worth$300,018
Realized+$15,327
Unrealized+$57,648
Win rate (resolved)43%
Wins / losses32 / 42
Whale WR (big bets)63%
Open positions24
Markets (closed)74 / 79
Avg bet$11,535
Trades / day177.2
Drawdown90%
Kalshi-fit94%
Chart Positions 24 History 74 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$47,783
7 days−$77,422
14 days+$29,919
30 days+$15,327
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? Yes 60¢ 78¢ $71,430 $92,586 +$21,156 (+30%)
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Yes 27¢ 44¢ $40,797 $67,974 +$27,176 (+67%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Yes 46¢ 46¢ $32,778 $32,944 +$165 (+1%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Yes 6¢ 14¢ $12,295 $29,329 +$17,035 (+139%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Yes 35¢ 18¢ $35,202 $18,798 −$16,404 (-47%)
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? Yes 66¢ 79¢ $12,374 $14,886 +$2,512 (+20%)
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15? Yes 14¢ 42¢ $2,950 $8,469 +$5,519 (+187%)
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? Yes 16¢ 22¢ $5,507 $7,740 +$2,233 (+41%)
Nothing Ever Happens: 2026 Yes 44¢ 70¢ $3,959 $6,272 +$2,313 (+58%)
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? Yes 12¢ 14¢ $4,545 $5,028 +$483 (+11%)
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? Yes 53¢ 54¢ $2,650 $2,675 +$25 (+1%)
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Yes 14¢ 10¢ $3,666 $2,555 −$1,111 (-30%)
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Yes 7¢ 7¢ $2,560 $2,515 −$45 (-2%)
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? Yes 66¢ 68¢ $1,813 $1,854 +$41 (+2%)
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? Yes 6¢ 39¢ $260 $1,730 +$1,470 (+564%)
US-Iran nuclear deal by July 31? Yes 34¢ 57¢ $940 $1,556 +$615 (+65%)
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Yes 13¢ 4¢ $5,234 $1,518 −$3,715 (-71%)
Katy Perry and Justin Trudeau engaged by end of 2026? No 73¢ 68¢ $1,411 $1,305 −$106 (-8%)
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Pakistan? Yes 88¢ 7¢ $1,758 $132 −$1,626 (-92%)
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 19? Yes 56¢ 62¢ $45 $50 +$5 (+12%)
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in the United States? Yes 4¢ 1¢ $130 $46 −$83 (-64%)
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 22, 2026? Yes 35¢ 46¢ $25 $33 +$8 (+32%)
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? Yes 10¢ 6¢ $42 $23 −$19 (-45%)
Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by June 30? Yes 27¢ 31¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+15%)
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 22, 2026? Yes 7¢ 0¢ $467 $0 −$467 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 12 $467 −$686 -147%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 22? Jun 12 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Trump visit Pakistan by April 30? Jun 12 $541 −$541 -100%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 22, 2026? Jun 12 $100 −$100 -100%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 22, 2026? Jun 12 $8,916 −$8,899 -100%
US-Iran nuclear deal by April 30? Jun 12 $5,322 −$4,532 -85%
Will Donald Trump have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by April 30? Jun 12 $164 −$164 -100%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 11, 2026? Jun 12 $476 −$476 -100%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 13, 2026? Jun 12 $3,800 −$3,800 -100%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 12 $1,550 −$1,550 -100%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 8, 2026? Jun 12 $206 −$337 -164%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 12 $210 −$210 -100%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026? Jun 12 $22,045 −$27,305 -124%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 12 $5,400 −$5,400 -100%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026? Jun 12 $9,082 −$6,582 -72%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz in Ap Jun 12 $210 −$210 -100%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 11 $32,063 +$12,772 +40%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? Jun 11 $4,036 +$232 +6%
Will Karen Bass finish first in the first round of the 2026 Los Angele Jun 11 $22 +$8 +35%
Will Spencer Pratt finish first in the first round of the 2026 Los Ang Jun 09 $684 +$179 +26%
Will Karen Bass & Spencer Pratt advance to the second round of the 202 Jun 09 $3,900 +$2,100 +54%
Will Spencer Pratt win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? Jun 07 $42,150 +$3,676 +9%
Iran closes its airspace by July 31? Jun 07 $320 −$310 -97%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 07 $11,372 −$6,684 -59%
Iran closes its airspace by June 15? Jun 07 $10,821 −$10,737 -99%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 15, 2026? Jun 07 $13,665 +$7,541 +55%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 9? Jun 07 $2,670 +$213 +8%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 7? Jun 06 $27,890 −$659 -2%
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Qatar? Jun 06 $178 −$149 -84%
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Jun 06 $14,894 −$2,974 -20%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15? Jun 06 $10,480 −$7,850 -75%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? Jun 06 $23,957 −$13,985 -58%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 7, 2026? Jun 04 $4,506 +$660 +15%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 3, 2026? Jun 04 $234 +$78 +33%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 3? Jun 04 $15,253 +$956 +6%
Israel announces Lebanon ceasefire extension by June 7? Jun 04 $1,153 +$3,700 +321%
Will Chong Won-oh win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Jun 03 $3,911 +$7,436 +190%
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by May 31? Jun 02 $971 +$171 +18%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 31, 2026? Jun 01 $126 −$15 -12%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $14,229 +$26,649 +187%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 01 $2,566 +$623 +24%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 31? Jun 01 $28,584 +$53 +0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? May 31 $2,021 +$20,270 +1003%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 31 $8,175 −$2,313 -28%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 31, 2026? May 31 $23,594 +$3,458 +15%
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by May 31? May 31 $3 −$3 -75%
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by May 31? May 31 $1,300 −$1,168 -90%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 30? May 30 $9,368 +$21 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 30 $7,868 −$6,097 -78%
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by May 31? May 30 $3,012 −$2,762 -92%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
world 90% +$96,134
politics 7% +$10,425
crypto 2% +$26,649
other 1% +$581
finance 0% −$19
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 66¢ $11 1h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 66¢ $9 1h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 66¢ $264 1h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 66¢ $30 1h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 66¢ $21 1h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 66¢ $31 1h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 66¢ $330 1h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 66¢ $216 1h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 66¢ $139 1h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? BUY Yes 53¢ $2,212 1h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? BUY Yes 53¢ $3 1h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 66¢ $66 1h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? BUY Yes 53¢ $1 1h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? BUY Yes 53¢ $32 1h
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 22, 2026? BUY Yes 35¢ $11 1h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? BUY Yes 53¢ $4 1h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? BUY Yes 53¢ $4 1h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? BUY Yes 53¢ $16 1h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? BUY Yes 53¢ $37 1h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? BUY Yes 53¢ $3 1h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? BUY Yes 53¢ $6 1h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? BUY Yes 53¢ $1 1h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? BUY Yes 53¢ $7 1h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? BUY Yes 53¢ $5 1h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? BUY Yes 53¢ $53 1h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? BUY Yes 53¢ $3 1h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 66¢ $132 1h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 66¢ $2 1h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? BUY Yes 53¢ $3 1h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? BUY Yes 53¢ $1 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +28%
net ROI/market (all)-13.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 32 -59.4% -63.3% 25% 16% -30.3%
≤30d 74 -4.5% -13.6% 43% 28% +2.2%
≤90d 74 -4.5% -13.6% 43% 28% +2.2%
all 74 -4.5% -13.6% 43% 28% +2.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover177.2 tr/day
realistic slip~18%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -13.6% 28% +2.2%
10% -21.8% 20% -7.6%
15% ← realistic here -29.4% 15% -16.5%
20% -36.3% 14% -24.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $300,018.47 · official $302,807.08 (match) · 3500 history records