Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T23:33:51+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
16 0x162f…9309 world 52 markets active 1h ago coverage 170d
TRAPdo not copy world specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$4,232 (-21%) realized −$4,550 · open +$318
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -4% what you keep after slip
Net edge-4%after slip
Net WR29%break-even
Win rate33%16W / 33L
Whale WR30%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$381per market
Trades / day0.8pace
Kalshi-fit96%portable
Net worth$1,000now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 94% −$4,785
politics 5% +$55
economics 1% −$67
other 1% +$110
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +29%
net ROI/market (all)-4.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d no closed markets
≤90d 5 -31.3% -37.9% 40% 20% -65.7%
all 49 +6.1% -4.0% 33% 29% -33.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -4.0% 29% -33.3%
10% -13.2% 27% -39.6%
15% -21.6% 24% -45.5%
20% -29.3% 20% -50.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 24% · top 2 39% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -62% too few recent
Fragile wins
12% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +6% · $-wt -31% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 30% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -37% → late +47% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$290 vs −$292 · ×0.99 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.48 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

170d coverage
Net worth$1,000
Realized−$4,550
Unrealized+$318
Win rate (resolved)33%
Wins / losses16 / 33
Whale WR (big bets)30%
Open positions3
Markets (closed)49 / 52
History coverage170d
Avg bet$381
Trades / day0.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit96%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 49 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Yes 2¢ 3¢ $500 $818 +$318 (+64%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? No 52¢ 54¢ $104 $107 +$3 (+3%)
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? Yes 13¢ 12¢ $78 $75 −$3 (-4%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 25 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Thomas Massie be the Republican nominee for KY-04? May 19 $205 −$200 -98%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 05 $100 −$16 -16%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? Apr 06 $75 −$75 -100%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? Apr 06 $40 +$2 +4%
US forces enter Iran by April 30? Apr 06 $27 +$15 +55%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by March 31? Mar 25 $400 −$400 -100%
Will the U.S. invade Iran by March 31? Mar 25 $1,100 −$558 -51%
US forces enter Iran by March 31? Mar 22 $1,500 −$1,500 -100%
US x Iran ceasefire by April 30? Mar 09 $400 +$9 +2%
Will Iran strike Israel on March 6? Mar 09 $820 −$269 -33%
US announces military support of Iran opposition by March 31? Mar 07 $41 −$6 -15%
Will Iran strike Israel on March 7? Mar 07 $400 +$282 +70%
Will Iran strike Israel on March 3? Mar 07 $35 −$35 -100%
US x Iran ceasefire by May 31? Mar 07 $500 −$49 -10%
US announces military support of Kurds in Iran by March 31? Mar 06 $700 −$700 -100%
Will Iran strike Israel on March 4? Mar 06 $30 +$516 +1718%
Will Iran strike Israel on March 5? Mar 05 $400 +$325 +81%
Will María Corina Machado be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Mar 03 $40 −$10 -25%
US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026? Feb 28 $1,130 +$423 +37%
US strikes Iran by March 3, 2026? Feb 28 $155 +$362 +233%
US strikes Iran by March 15, 2026? Feb 28 $569 +$681 +120%
US strikes Iran by February 20, 2026? Feb 20 $260 −$219 -84%
US strikes Iran by February 22, 2026? Feb 19 $100 −$100 -100%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the March 2026 me Feb 06 $200 −$67 -33%
US strikes Iran by February 13, 2026? Feb 03 $800 −$377 -47%
US strikes Iran by January 30, 2026? Jan 30 $200 −$200 -100%
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by January 31? Jan 30 $1,680 −$1,511 -90%
US strikes Iran by February 6, 2026? Jan 29 $413 −$413 -100%
US strikes Iran by January 31, 2026? Jan 28 $720 −$320 -44%
Will US or Israel strike Iran by January 31, 2026? Jan 23 $300 −$300 -100%
Will the US next strike Iran on January 26, 2026 (ET)? Jan 23 $100 −$100 -100%
US strikes Iran by January 23, 2026? Jan 23 $100 −$100 -100%
US strikes Iran by January 26, 2026? Jan 23 $475 +$1,113 +234%
Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026? Jan 22 $150 +$120 +80%
Trump-Denmark Greenland deal signed by March 31? Jan 21 $60 −$60 -100%
US strikes Iran by January 17, 2026? Jan 15 $1,380 −$1,300 -94%
US strikes Iran by January 14, 2026? Jan 15 $300 +$80 +27%
US strikes Iran by January 16, 2026? Jan 14 $800 +$252 +32%
Will the US next strike Iran on January 16, 2026 (ET)? Jan 14 $240 −$240 -100%
Will the US next strike Iran on January 17, 2026 (ET)? Jan 14 $105 −$105 -100%
Israel strikes Iran by January 16, 2026? Jan 14 $250 +$224 +90%
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31? Jan 13 $1,000 +$219 +22%
Will the US strike Iran next? Jan 13 $55 −$55 -100%
Will Pam Bondi be the first to leave the Trump Cabinet before 2027? Jan 13 $30 +$13 +43%
US strikes Iran by January 13, 2026? Jan 12 $119 −$119 -100%
US strikes Iran by January 12, 2026? Jan 12 $25 −$2 -8%
Will US or Israel strike Iran by January 12, 2026? Jan 12 $35 −$35 -100%
Israel strikes Iran by January 31, 2026? Jan 10 $150 −$6 -4%
Israel strikes Iran by January 9, 2026? Jan 08 $192 −$192 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? BUY Yes 13¢ $78 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 52¢ $104 1h
Will Thomas Massie be the Republican nominee for KY-04? BUY Yes 37¢ $205 38d
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $84 52d
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY Yes 2¢ $96 70d
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY Yes 2¢ $404 70d
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY Yes 1¢ $100 70d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? BUY Yes 27¢ $75 81d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? SELL Yes 30¢ $42 81d
US forces enter Iran by April 30? SELL Yes 100¢ $42 81d
US forces enter Iran by April 30? BUY Yes 64¢ $27 85d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? BUY Yes 29¢ $40 85d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by March 31? BUY Yes 8¢ $400 93d
Will the U.S. invade Iran by March 31? SELL Yes 14¢ $281 93d
US forces enter Iran by March 31? BUY Yes 19¢ $700 96d
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? SELL Yes 58¢ $481 96d
US forces enter Iran by March 31? BUY Yes 19¢ $800 96d
US x Iran ceasefire by April 30? SELL Yes 60¢ $409 109d
Will Iran strike Israel on March 6? BUY Yes 7¢ $120 109d
Will the U.S. invade Iran by March 31? BUY Yes 17¢ $500 109d
Will Iran strike Israel on March 6? BUY Yes 11¢ $100 110d
Will Iran strike Israel on March 6? SELL No 90¢ $471 110d
Will the U.S. invade Iran by March 31? BUY Yes 10¢ $200 110d
US announces military support of Iran opposition by March 31? SELL Yes 53¢ $35 111d
Will Iran strike Israel on March 7? SELL Yes 84¢ $682 111d
Will Iran strike Israel on March 3? BUY No 0¢ $10 111d
US x Iran ceasefire by May 31? SELL Yes 61¢ $451 111d
Will Iran strike Israel on March 6? BUY No 58¢ $300 112d
US announces military support of Kurds in Iran by March 31? BUY Yes 52¢ $200 112d
Will Iran strike Israel on March 4? SELL Yes 96¢ $546 112d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,000.44 · official $1,000.44 (match) · 218 history records