Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T11:19:41+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
16 0x162e…7cf3 world 52 markets active 1h ago coverage 133d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real✗ net negative once open positions are counted
Total PnL −$190 (-2%) realized +$743 · open −$933
Gross ROI / mkt +11% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +0% what you keep after slip
Net edge+0%after slip
Net WR41%break-even
Win rate88%36W / 5L
Whale WR83%big bets
Drawdown54%max
Avg bet$227per market
Trades / day1.9pace
Fees−$42est.
Kalshi-fit81%portable
Net worth$634now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days+$428
30 days+$363
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 51% −$632
sports 31% +$179
other 9% +$75
politics 8% +$123
tech 1% +$13
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +41%
net ROI/market (all)+0.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 11 +13.0% +2.3% 82% 64% -1.7%
≤90d 30 +11.4% +0.8% 83% 50% -3.4%
all 41 +10.8% +0.2% 88% 41% -3.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +0.2% 41% -3.4%
10% -9.4% 20% -12.6%
15% -18.1% 17% -21.1%
20% -26.2% 10% -28.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 17% · top 2 31% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +7% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
50% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +11% · $-wt +7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 83% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +11% → late +10% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
4.3 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$42 vs −$163 · ×0.26 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.85 per $1 lost it wins $1.85
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

133d coverage
Net worth$634
Realized+$743
Unrealized−$933
Win rate (resolved)88%
Wins / losses36 / 5
Whale WR (big bets)83%
Est. fees paid−$42
Open positions11
Markets (closed)41 / 52
History coverage133d
Avg bet$227
Trades / day1.9
Drawdown54%
Kalshi-fit81%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 11 History 41 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections? No 81¢ 82¢ $162 $165 +$3 (+2%)
Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections? Yes 82¢ 82¢ $164 $165 +$1 (+1%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? No 84¢ 12¢ $794 $114 −$681 (-86%)
Will Kenyan McDuffie win the 2026 Democratic D.C. Mayoral Primary? No 88¢ 90¢ $48 $50 +$2 (+3%)
Will Jonathan Bush win the 2026 Maine Governor Republican primary election? No 91¢ 99¢ $46 $49 +$4 (+8%)
Will Jordan Wood be the Democratic nominee for ME-02? No 83¢ 90¢ $42 $45 +$4 (+8%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? No 69¢ $289 $27 −$262 (-91%)
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $6 $5 −$1 (-12%)
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $5 $5 −$0 (-6%)
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $5 $5 −$0 (-7%)
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $5 $4 −$1 (-25%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? Jun 08 $564 +$36 +6%
Roland Garros ATP: Matteo Berrettini vs Matteo Arnaldi Jun 04 $50 +$31 +62%
Roland Garros ATP: Jakub Mensik vs Joao Fonseca Jun 03 $394 +$257 +65%
Roland Garros ATP: Frances Tiafoe vs Matteo Arnaldi Jun 01 $340 +$40 +12%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $435 +$65 +15%
Roland Garros ATP: Casper Ruud vs Joao Fonseca Jun 01 $778 +$113 +14%
Indian Premier League: Royal Challengers Bengaluru vs Gujarat Titans May 31 $124 +$16 +13%
Set Handicap: Ruud (-1.5) vs Fonseca (+1.5) May 31 $28 −$3 -10%
Roland Garros ATP: Joao Fonseca vs Novak Djokovic May 29 $563 −$344 -61%
Starmer out by May 15, 2026? May 28 $236 +$14 +6%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026? May 28 $661 +$138 +21%
Indian Premier League: Royal Challengers Bangalore vs Kolkata Knight R May 13 $142 +$58 +41%
Nothing Ever Happens: May May 13 $397 +$24 +6%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 11, 2026? May 12 $58 +$2 +4%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 8, 2026? May 09 $47 +$3 +6%
Indian Premier League: Sunrisers Hyderabad vs Punjab Kings May 06 $241 +$9 +4%
Indian Premier League: Mumbai Indians vs Lucknow Super Giants May 04 $701 +$54 +8%
Will Saudi Arabia strike Iran by April 30? May 02 $168 +$32 +19%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026? May 02 $216 +$24 +11%
Will UAE strike Iran by April 30? May 02 $286 +$114 +40%
Indian Premier League: Royal Challengers Bangalore vs Gujarat Titans Apr 24 $134 −$84 -63%
Will the All India Anna Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (ADMK) win the most Apr 23 $108 −$9 -9%
Indian Premier League: Gujarat Titans vs Mumbai Indians Apr 20 $88 +$12 +13%
Will Manchester City win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Apr 12 $64 +$20 +31%
Will Illinois win the 2026 NCAA Tournament? Apr 05 $183 +$17 +9%
Will Saudi Arabia strike Iran by March 31? Apr 01 $196 +$204 +104%
Will Florida win the 2026 NCAA Tournament? Mar 23 $5 $0 +10%
Will CDU win the most seats in the 2026 Rhineland-Palatinate parliamen Mar 23 $82 +$48 +58%
US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026? Mar 20 $375 −$375 -100%
Will Don Tracy be the Republican nominee for Senate in Illinois? Mar 20 $75 +$5 +6%
Will PH win the most seats in the 2026 Colombian Senate election? Mar 10 $72 +$5 +6%
Will James Talarico be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Texas? Mar 04 $138 +$62 +45%
Will the U.S. collect less than $100b in revenue in 2025? Mar 01 $179 +$21 +12%
US strikes Iran by February 20, 2026? Feb 21 $384 +$16 +4%
Will ChatGPT be out as the #1 Free App in the US Apple Store by Februa Feb 15 $175 +$13 +8%
US strikes Iran by February 13, 2026? Feb 14 $517 +$33 +6%
Will Post Malone perform during the Super Bowl LX halftime show? Feb 09 $9 +$1 +10%
US strikes Iran by February 6, 2026? Feb 07 $402 +$8 +2%
US strikes Iran by February 5, 2026? Feb 06 $118 +$2 +1%
US strikes Iran by February 4, 2026? Feb 05 $392 +$8 +2%
US strikes Iran by February 3, 2026? Feb 04 $98 +$2 +2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 13¢ $2 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 55¢ $3 13h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 60¢ $6 13h
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $6 24h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 84¢ $17 2d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 57¢ $11 2d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 84¢ $84 3d
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $5 3d
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $5 3d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 85¢ $170 3d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 67¢ $134 3d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 86¢ $86 3d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 87¢ $87 3d
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $6 3d
Will Kenyan McDuffie win the 2026 Democratic D.C. Mayoral Primary? BUY No 83¢ $4 9d
Will Jonathan Bush win the 2026 Maine Governor Republican primary elec BUY No 91¢ $46 9d
Will Kenyan McDuffie win the 2026 Democratic D.C. Mayoral Primary? BUY No 88¢ $28 9d
Will Kenyan McDuffie win the 2026 Democratic D.C. Mayoral Primary? BUY No 88¢ $16 9d
Will Jordan Wood be the Democratic nominee for ME-02? BUY No 83¢ $42 9d
Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm ele BUY No 81¢ $163 9d
Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm ele BUY Yes 82¢ $165 9d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? BUY No 95¢ $95 11d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? BUY No 95¢ $16 11d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? BUY No 95¢ $5 11d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? BUY No 95¢ $64 11d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 86¢ $172 11d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? BUY No 95¢ $10 11d
Roland Garros ATP: Matteo Berrettini vs Matteo Arnaldi BUY Matteo Arnaldi 70¢ $35 11d
Roland Garros ATP: Matteo Berrettini vs Matteo Arnaldi SELL Matteo Arnaldi 61¢ $30 11d
Roland Garros ATP: Matteo Berrettini vs Matteo Arnaldi BUY Matteo Arnaldi 29¢ $15 11d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $633.73 · official $633.73 (match) · 293 history records