Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T23:38:11+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
16 0x162c…6c47 sports 21 markets active 1h ago coverage 2d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sampleP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$640 (-1%) realized −$49,871 · open +$49,231
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -31% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -47% what you keep after slip
Net edge-47%after slip
Net WR40%break-even
Win rate40%4W / 6L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$2,816per market
Trades / day30.1pace
Fees−$810est.
Kalshi-fit57%portable
Net worth$106,703now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 99% +$49,309
other 1% +$14
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)-37.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 -31.0% -37.6% 40% 40% +0.2%
≤30d 10 -31.0% -37.6% 40% 40% +0.2%
≤90d 10 -31.0% -37.6% 40% 40% +0.2%
all 10 -31.0% -37.6% 40% 40% +0.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover30.1 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -37.6% 40% +0.2%
10% ← realistic here -43.5% 40% -9.4%
15% -49.0% 30% -18.1%
20% -54.0% 20% -26.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 93% · top 2 98% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +11% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -31% · $-wt +11% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
2.1 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$83 vs −$40 · ×2.08 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.38 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$106,703
Realized−$49,871
Unrealized+$49,231
Win rate (resolved)40%
Wins / losses4 / 6
Est. fees paid−$810
Open positions11
Markets (closed)10 / 21
History coverage2d
Avg bet$2,816
Trades / day30.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit57%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 11 History 10 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Spread: Germany (-1.5) Paraguay 53¢ 100¢ $55,812 $104,845 +$49,034 (+88%)
United States vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 Under 47¢ 46¢ $705 $697 −$7 (-1%)
Will Portugal win on 2026-07-02? Yes 54¢ 55¢ $690 $697 +$6 (+1%)
Germany vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 Under 40¢ 100¢ $124 $312 +$188 (+151%)
Spain vs. Austria: O/U 2.5 Under 48¢ 48¢ $90 $89 −$1 (-1%)
Germany leading at halftime? No 49¢ 100¢ $17 $34 +$17 (+104%)
Netherlands vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 Over 46¢ 46¢ $12 $12 −$0 (-1%)
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Norway end in a draw? Yes 27¢ 28¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+2%)
Germany vs. Paraguay: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Over 53¢ 100¢ $4 $7 +$3 (+89%)
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-29? Yes 8¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-99%)
Will Germany win on 2026-06-29? Yes 74¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? Jun 29 $31 −$22 -72%
Brazil vs. Japan: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 29 $469 +$309 +66%
Brazil vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 Jun 29 $134 −$47 -35%
Will Brazil vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 29 $100 −$98 -98%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-29? Jun 29 $3 −$3 -98%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-28? Jun 28 $32 +$18 +55%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-28? Jun 28 $18 +$5 +26%
Will Kawkab AC win on 2026-06-28? Jun 28 $5 +$2 +50%
South Africa vs. Canada: O/U 1.5 Jun 28 $4 −$4 -98%
Will South Africa vs. Canada end in a draw? Jun 28 $68 −$67 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Netherlands vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 46¢ $12 32m
Germany vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 35¢ $17 1h
Germany vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 35¢ $17 1h
Germany vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 35¢ $0 1h
Germany vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 35¢ $17 1h
Germany vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 29¢ $6 1h
Germany vs. Paraguay: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Over 53¢ $4 2h
Germany vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 46¢ $68 3h
Germany leading at halftime? BUY No 49¢ $6 3h
Germany leading at halftime? BUY No 49¢ $6 3h
Germany leading at halftime? BUY No 49¢ $6 3h
Spread: Germany (-1.5) BUY Paraguay 52¢ $21,972 3h
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 8¢ $5 4h
Brazil vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 36¢ $13 4h
Brazil vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 38¢ $18 4h
Brazil vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 43¢ $27 5h
Brazil vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 43¢ $20 5h
Brazil vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 42¢ $9 5h
Will Brazil vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY Yes 47¢ $100 5h
Brazil vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 39¢ $27 5h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 46¢ $3 5h
Brazil vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 60¢ $18 6h
Brazil vs. Japan: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Under 56¢ $441 7h
Spain vs. Austria: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 48¢ $91 9h
United States vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 47¢ $716 9h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? BUY No 45¢ $26 10h
Brazil vs. Japan: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Over 52¢ $28 12h
Will Portugal win on 2026-07-02? BUY Yes 54¢ $700 13h
Spread: Germany (-1.5) BUY Paraguay 54¢ $1,924 15h
Spread: Germany (-1.5) BUY Paraguay 54¢ $32,699 15h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $106,702.71 · official $106,702.71 (match) · 51 history records