Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T02:31:23+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
16 0x162c…d511 sports 36 markets active 1h ago coverage 43d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$2,334 (-29%) realized −$2,334 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -23% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -30% what you keep after slip
Net edge-30%after slip
Net WR25%break-even
Win rate39%14W / 22L
Whale WR40%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$220per market
Trades / day1.8pace
Fees−$88est.
Kalshi-fit80%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$8
7 days−$1,890
14 days−$1,890
30 days−$1,887
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 86% −$2,451
other 12% +$31
world 2% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +25%
net ROI/market (all)-30.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 12 -60.6% -64.4% 8% 0% -88.8%
≤30d 15 -48.1% -53.0% 27% 0% -83.3%
≤90d 36 -22.9% -30.2% 39% 25% -37.2%
all 36 -22.9% -30.2% 39% 25% -37.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -30.2% 25% -37.2%
10% -36.9% 25% -43.2%
15% -43.0% 22% -48.7%
20% -48.6% 14% -53.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 22% · top 2 42% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -31% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
29% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -23% · $-wt -31% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 40% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -31% → late -15% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$162 vs −$234 · ×0.69 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.48 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

43d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$2,334
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)39%
Wins / losses14 / 22
Whale WR (big bets)40%
Est. fees paid−$88
Open positions0
Markets (closed)36 / 36
History coverage43d
Avg bet$220
Trades / day1.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit80%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 36 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? Jun 26 $78 +$8 +10%
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2027? Jun 26 $176 $0 +0%
Will Qingdao Hainiu FC win on 2026-06-26? Jun 24 $2 $0 -14%
Will Qingdao Hainiu FC vs. Yunnan Yukun FC end in a draw? Jun 24 $1 $0 -11%
Qingdao Hainiu FC vs. Yunnan Yukun FC: O/U 1.5 Jun 24 $2 $0 -13%
Sagan Tosu vs. FC Ryūkyū: O/U 2.5 Jun 22 $2 −$2 -100%
Academia Puerto Cabello vs. CA Juventud: Both Teams to Score Jun 22 $29 −$29 -100%
Beijing Ducks vs. Shanghai Sharks Jun 22 $509 −$509 -100%
Lokomotiv Kuban vs. CSKA Moscow Jun 22 $92 −$92 -100%
Will ACF Fiorentina vs. Atalanta BC end in a draw? Jun 22 $914 −$914 -100%
Yunnan Yukun FC vs. Qingdao Xihaian FC: O/U 4.5 Jun 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Spread: Spurs (-1.5) Jun 22 $350 −$350 -100%
Shenzhen Xinpengcheng FC vs. Qingdao Hainiu FC: O/U 2.5 May 30 $98 +$2 +2%
Shenzhen Xinpengcheng FC vs. Qingdao Hainiu FC: O/U 1.5 May 30 $8 $0 +2%
Henan FC vs. Zhejiang Zhiye FC: O/U 1.5 May 30 $53 +$1 +2%
Will Getafe CF win on 2026-05-23? May 23 $238 +$449 +188%
Spread: Middlesbrough FC (-1.5) May 23 $1 $0 +0%
Golden State Valkyries vs. New York Liberty May 22 $137 +$361 +263%
Will CD Cuenca win on 2026-05-19? May 20 $99 −$99 -100%
Will Mirassol FC win on 2026-05-19? May 20 $12 −$12 -100%
Chongqing Tonglianglong FC vs. Yunnan Yukun FC: O/U 3.5 May 20 $303 +$127 +42%
Cavaliers vs. Knicks: O/U 217.5 May 20 $153 +$149 +97%
Chelsea FC vs. Tottenham Hotspur FC: O/U 10.5 Total Corners May 19 $522 +$499 +96%
Spread: Thunder (-8.5) May 19 $192 −$192 -100%
Connecticut Sun vs. PortlandFire: O/U 174.5 May 19 $726 −$726 -100%
Valencia CF vs. Rayo Vallecano de Madrid: Both Teams to Score May 18 $471 −$471 -100%
Will Sagan Tosu win on 2026-05-16? May 18 $390 −$390 -100%
Will Newcastle United Jets FC vs. Sydney FC end in a draw? May 18 $258 −$258 -100%
Will Valencia CF vs. Rayo Vallecano de Madrid end in a draw? May 18 $414 −$414 -100%
CSKA Moscow vs. Lokomotiv Kuban May 18 $27 −$27 -100%
Will Olympique de Marseille vs. Stade Rennais FC 1901 end in a draw? May 18 $237 +$73 +31%
Will CA Osasuna vs. RCD Espanyol de Barcelona end in a draw? May 17 $950 +$454 +48%
Zhejiang Lions vs. Shenzhen Leopards May 17 $197 −$196 -100%
Brose Bamberg vs. Ratiopharm Ulm May 17 $151 +$64 +42%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-05-16? May 16 $93 +$76 +82%
Ryukyu Golden Kings vs. Diamond Dolphins May 16 $25 +$2 +8%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? SELL No 86¢ $86 1h
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2027? SELL No 88¢ $176 1h
Will Qingdao Hainiu FC win on 2026-06-26? SELL Yes 33¢ $2 2d
Will Qingdao Hainiu FC vs. Yunnan Yukun FC end in a draw? SELL Yes 26¢ $1 2d
Qingdao Hainiu FC vs. Yunnan Yukun FC: O/U 1.5 SELL Under 16¢ $2 2d
Will Qingdao Hainiu FC win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 37¢ $2 3d
Qingdao Hainiu FC vs. Yunnan Yukun FC: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 17¢ $2 3d
Will Qingdao Hainiu FC vs. Yunnan Yukun FC end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $1 3d
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2027? BUY No 88¢ $88 21d
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2027? BUY No 88¢ $88 21d
Shenzhen Xinpengcheng FC vs. Qingdao Hainiu FC: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 98¢ $98 26d
Shenzhen Xinpengcheng FC vs. Qingdao Hainiu FC: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 98¢ $8 26d
Henan FC vs. Zhejiang Zhiye FC: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 98¢ $53 26d
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? BUY No 78¢ $78 30d
Yunnan Yukun FC vs. Qingdao Xihaian FC: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 1¢ $1 32d
Will Getafe CF win on 2026-05-23? BUY Yes 34¢ $157 33d
Will Getafe CF win on 2026-05-23? BUY Yes 34¢ $81 33d
Sagan Tosu vs. FC Ryūkyū: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 44¢ $2 34d
Will ACF Fiorentina vs. Atalanta BC end in a draw? BUY No 73¢ $96 34d
Will ACF Fiorentina vs. Atalanta BC end in a draw? BUY No 73¢ $818 34d
Spread: Spurs (-1.5) BUY Spurs 52¢ $350 34d
Beijing Ducks vs. Shanghai Sharks BUY Beijing Ducks 40¢ $509 34d
Academia Puerto Cabello vs. CA Juventud: Both Teams to Score BUY No 49¢ $9 35d
Academia Puerto Cabello vs. CA Juventud: Both Teams to Score BUY No 49¢ $10 35d
Academia Puerto Cabello vs. CA Juventud: Both Teams to Score BUY No 49¢ $11 35d
Golden State Valkyries vs. New York Liberty BUY Golden State Valkyries 27¢ $137 35d
Lokomotiv Kuban vs. CSKA Moscow BUY Lokomotiv Kuban 23¢ $92 36d
Chongqing Tonglianglong FC vs. Yunnan Yukun FC: O/U 3.5 SELL Under 95¢ $430 36d
Chongqing Tonglianglong FC vs. Yunnan Yukun FC: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 66¢ $303 36d
Will CD Cuenca win on 2026-05-19? BUY Yes 60¢ $99 37d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 112 history records