Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T14:47:25+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
16 0x162c…b287 crypto 212 markets active 0h ago coverage 649d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$295 (-3%) realized −$294 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR47%break-even
Win rate64%134W / 77L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$50per market
Trades / day1.0pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit93%portable
Net worth$40now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$481
7 days−$481
14 days−$481
30 days−$481
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 92% −$389
other 3% +$18
finance 2% +$6
politics 1% +$22
sports 1% +$38
culture 0% +$2
economics 0% −$40
world 0% −$14
tech 0% −$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +47%
net ROI/market (all)-11.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 45 -44.7% -50.0% 38% 22% -39.7%
≤30d 45 -44.7% -50.0% 38% 22% -39.7%
≤90d 71 -54.6% -58.9% 32% 14% -43.3%
all 211 -2.4% -11.7% 64% 47% -12.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.7% 47% -12.6%
10% -20.1% 34% -21.0%
15% -27.9% 24% -28.6%
20% -34.9% 14% -35.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 12% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -37% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
24% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +26% → late -30% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$13 vs −$28 · ×0.48 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.83 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

649d coverage
Net worth$40
Realized−$294
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)64%
Wins / losses134 / 77
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)211 / 212
History coverage649d
Avg bet$50
Trades / day1.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit93%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 211 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Down 35¢ 34¢ $40 $39 −$1 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 27 $42 −$39 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 27 $91 +$14 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 27 $20 +$9 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 27 $10 −$10 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 27 $21 +$9 +45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 27 $82 +$44 +54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 27 $50 +$3 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 27 $61 −$47 -77%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 27 $82 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 27 $31 +$11 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 27 $21 +$15 +74%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 27 $10 −$10 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 27 $40 +$3 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 27 $51 +$5 +10%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 27, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 27 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 27 $10 +$2 +16%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 27, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 27 $20 +$1 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 27 $26 +$7 +27%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 27, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 27 $20 −$8 -40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 27 $30 +$2 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 27 $10 +$2 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Jun 27 $51 −$13 -26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 27 $31 +$13 +43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 27 $101 +$7 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Jun 27 $21 −$10 -48%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 27, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Jun 27 $11 −$10 -94%
Will Argentina’s annual inflation be less than 20%? Jun 27 $1 $0 -11%
Meta (META) Up or Down on December 15? Jun 27 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - February 21, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 27 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 27, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Jun 27 $30 −$30 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 6, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 27 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 6, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 27 $15 −$9 -57%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-01-18? Jun 27 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 5, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET Jun 27 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 22, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 27 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 6, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 27 $20 −$9 -46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 24, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Jun 27 $105 −$98 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 21, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Jun 27 $50 −$44 -88%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 20, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 27 $110 −$110 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 22, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Jun 27 $21 −$21 -100%
Israel x Hezbollah Ceasefire in 2024? Jun 27 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 20, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Jun 27 $40 −$40 -100%
No Solana all time high in 2024? Jun 27 $45 −$45 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 21, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 27 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 24, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Jun 27 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 6, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Apr 06 $95 +$9 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 6, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Apr 06 $115 +$4 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 6, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Apr 06 $30 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 24, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Apr 04 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 22, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Apr 04 $1 −$1 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET BUY Down 33¢ $21 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET BUY Down 37¢ $21 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET BUY Down 27¢ $11 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET BUY Down 32¢ $21 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET BUY Down 42¢ $10 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET BUY Down 78¢ $20 7m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET BUY Down 96¢ $20 9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET BUY Down 90¢ $20 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET BUY Down 83¢ $20 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET BUY Down 86¢ $10 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET BUY Down 67¢ $20 32m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $10 35m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET SELL Up 86¢ $30 40m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET BUY Up 57¢ $21 41m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET BUY Down 63¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET BUY Down 61¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET BUY Down 63¢ $51 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET BUY Down 68¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET BUY Up 94¢ $50 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET SELL Down 88¢ $36 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET BUY Down 72¢ $31 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET SELL Down 60¢ $46 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET BUY Down 63¢ $51 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET SELL Up 81¢ $42 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET BUY Up 57¢ $31 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET BUY Down 85¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET BUY Down 77¢ $30 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET BUY Down 73¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET SELL Up 100¢ $36 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET SELL Down 83¢ $14 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $40.11 · official $83.20 · 895 history records