Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T08:57:54+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
16 0x162b…dadd sports 1804 markets active 0h ago coverage 62d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 62d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$312 (-17%) realized −$312 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -25% what you keep after slip
Net edge-25%after slip
Net WR2%break-even
Win rate90%1658W / 180L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1per market
Trades / day28.9pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$1now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1,028
7 days−$1,029
14 days−$1,027
30 days−$1,033
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 100% −$7
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +2%
net ROI/market (all)-11.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 273 -15.2% -23.3% 78% 0% -83.4%
≤30d 961 -4.7% -13.8% 88% 2% -57.4%
≤90d 1838 -2.3% -11.6% 90% 2% -42.5%
all 1838 -2.3% -11.6% 90% 2% -42.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover28.9 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -11.6% 2% -42.5%
10% ← realistic here -20.1% 0% -48.0%
15% -27.8% 0% -53.0%
20% -34.9% 0% -57.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 0% · top 2 0% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -36% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
98% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -36% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late -5% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$6 · ×0.01 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.12 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

62d coverage
Net worth$1
Realized−$312
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)90%
Wins / losses1658 / 180
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions1
Markets (closed)1838 / 1804
History coverage62d ⚠
Avg bet$1
Trades / day28.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 1838 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Parma: Roberto Carballes Baena vs Stefano Travaglia Roberto Carballes Baena 92¢ 92¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 175 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Menorca: Zdenek Kolar vs Sergio Callejon Jun 17 $100 −$100 -100%
Wuning: Pavel Kotov vs Ilia Simakin Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Mexico City: Luka Pavlovic vs Rodrigo Pacheco Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Sarasota: Andres Andrade vs Tyler Zink Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Rolex Monte Carlo Masters, Qualification: Vit Kopriva vs Matteo Arnald Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Madrid: Nerman Fatic vs Franco Agamenone Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Wuning 2: Linang Xiao vs Blake Ellis Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
BMW Open, Qualification: Jan Choinski vs Marc-Andrea Huesler Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Sarasota: Alex Rybakov vs Martin Damm Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
BMW Open: Vit Kopriva vs Luciano Darderi Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Wuning 2: Justin Boulais vs Philip Sekulic Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Sao Leopoldo: Facundo Acosta vs Hugo Dellien Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Rolex Monte Carlo Masters, Qualification: Ignacio Buse vs David Goffin Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Sarasota: Nishesh Basavareddy vs Stefan Dostanic Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Madrid: Nerman Fatic vs Pol Martin Tiffon Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Sarasota: Strong Kirchheimer vs Thomas Faurel Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Barcelona Open, Qualification: Ethan Quinn vs Nikoloz Basilashvili Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Menorca: Sandro Kopp vs Alejo Sanchez Quilez Jun 17 $100 −$100 -100%
Barletta: Enrico Dalla Valle vs Maxime Chazal Jun 17 $100 −$100 -100%
Sao Leopoldo: Alvaro Guillen Meza vs Luciano Emanuel Ambrogi Jun 17 $100 −$100 -100%
Mexico City: Nicolas Mejia vs Vladyslav Orlov Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
BMW Open: Fabian Marozsan vs Stefanos Tsitsipas Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
San Luis Potosi: Dan Martin vs Marc-Andrea Huesler Jun 17 $100 −$100 -100%
US Men's Clay Court Championships, Qualification: Federico Agustin Gom Jun 17 $100 −$100 -100%
Oeiras 3: Francisco Comesana vs Frederico Ferreira Silva Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
US Men's Clay Court Championships: Alex Bolt vs Yibing Wu Jun 17 $100 −$100 -100%
Mexico City: Corentin Denolly vs Marc-Andrea Huesler Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Sao Leopoldo: Tomas Barrios vs Murkel Dellien Jun 17 $100 −$100 -100%
Grand Prix Hassan II: Karim Bennani vs Quentin Halys Jun 17 $100 −$100 -100%
Wuning: Kody Pearson vs Zhao Zhao Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Menorca: Alejo Sanchez Quilez vs Raul Brancaccio Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Barcelona Open, Qualification: Marco Trungelliti vs Nicolai Budkov Kja Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Menorca: Jonas Forejtek vs Roberto Carballes Baena Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Sao Leopoldo: Paulo Dos Santos vs Gonzalo Bueno Jun 17 $100 −$100 -100%
Monza: Arthur Fery vs Vitaliy Sachko Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Asuncion 2: Joaquin Aguilar vs Gustavo Almeida Jun 17 $1 $0 +10%
Asuncion 2: Gonzalo Villanueva vs Juan Bautista Torres Jun 17 $1 $0 +8%
Asuncion 2: Samuel Heredia vs Luciano Emanuel Ambrogi Jun 16 $1 $0 +10%
Asuncion 2: Hernando Escurra vs Hernan Casanova Jun 16 $1 $0 +4%
Asuncion 2: Nicolas Kicker vs Federico Coria Jun 16 $1 $0 +10%
Asuncion 2: Johan Alexander Rodriguez vs Matias Soto Jun 16 $1 $0 +10%
Asuncion 2: Ignacio Parisca vs Santiago Rodriguez Taverna Jun 16 $1 $0 +10%
Parma: Ilia Simakin vs Jacopo Vasami Jun 16 $1 $0 +8%
Poznan: Gonzalo Bueno vs Tomasz Berkieta Jun 16 $1 $0 +8%
Royan: Eliakim Coulibaly vs Felix Balshaw Jun 16 $1 $0 +8%
HSBC Championships: Kamil Majchrzak vs Jiri Lehecka Jun 16 $1 $0 +7%
Dublin: Titouan Droguet vs Charles Broom Jun 16 $1 $0 +10%
Asuncion 2: Ignacio Monzon vs Juan Manuel La Serna Jun 16 $1 $0 +8%
HSBC Championships: Cameron Norrie vs Alejandro Davidovich Fokina Jun 16 $1 $0 +10%
Royan: Leo Raquillet vs Manoj Dhamne Manas Jun 16 $1 $0 +8%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Parma: Roberto Carballes Baena vs Stefano Travaglia BUY Roberto Carballes Baena 92¢ $1 4m
Asuncion 2: Joaquin Aguilar vs Gustavo Almeida BUY Joaquin Aguilar 91¢ $1 7h
Asuncion 2: Samuel Heredia vs Luciano Emanuel Ambrogi BUY Luciano Emanuel Ambrogi 91¢ $1 9h
Asuncion 2: Gonzalo Villanueva vs Juan Bautista Torres BUY Gonzalo Villanueva 92¢ $1 9h
Asuncion 2: Hernando Escurra vs Hernan Casanova BUY Hernan Casanova 96¢ $1 10h
Asuncion 2: Nicolas Kicker vs Federico Coria BUY Nicolas Kicker 91¢ $1 12h
Asuncion 2: Johan Alexander Rodriguez vs Matias Soto BUY Matias Soto 91¢ $1 13h
Asuncion 2: Ignacio Parisca vs Santiago Rodriguez Taverna BUY Santiago Rodriguez Taverna 91¢ $1 13h
Parma: Ilia Simakin vs Jacopo Vasami BUY Jacopo Vasami 92¢ $1 13h
HSBC Championships: Kamil Majchrzak vs Jiri Lehecka BUY Jiri Lehecka 93¢ $1 13h
Poznan: Gonzalo Bueno vs Tomasz Berkieta BUY Gonzalo Bueno 92¢ $1 13h
Dublin: Titouan Droguet vs Charles Broom BUY Titouan Droguet 91¢ $1 14h
Royan: Leo Raquillet vs Manoj Dhamne Manas BUY Leo Raquillet 92¢ $1 14h
HSBC Championships: Cameron Norrie vs Alejandro Davidovich Fokina BUY Alejandro Davidovich Fokina 91¢ $1 14h
Royan: Eliakim Coulibaly vs Felix Balshaw BUY Felix Balshaw 92¢ $1 14h
Asuncion 2: Ignacio Monzon vs Juan Manuel La Serna BUY Juan Manuel La Serna 92¢ $1 14h
Nottingham 2: Remy Bertola vs Yibing Wu BUY Remy Bertola 92¢ $1 15h
Nottingham 2: Jaime Faria vs Zhizhen Zhang BUY Zhizhen Zhang 94¢ $1 15h
Nottingham 2: Roman Safiullin vs August Holmgren BUY Roman Safiullin 92¢ $1 15h
Royan: Franco Ribero vs Pavel Kotov BUY Pavel Kotov 94¢ $1 15h
HSBC Championships: Arthur Rinderknech vs Hamad Medjedovic BUY Hamad Medjedovic 91¢ $1 15h
Dublin: Ivan Ivanov vs Stefanos Sakellaridis BUY Stefanos Sakellaridis 91¢ $1 15h
Parma: Enrico Dalla Valle vs Alexander Weis BUY Enrico Dalla Valle 91¢ $1 16h
HSBC Championships: Ugo Humbert vs Marin Cilic BUY Ugo Humbert 91¢ $1 16h
Royan: Gilles Arnaud Bailly vs Lucas Poullain BUY Gilles Arnaud Bailly 94¢ $1 16h
Halle Open: Tomas Etcheverry vs Daniil Medvedev BUY Daniil Medvedev 91¢ $1 16h
Poznan: Mathys Erhard vs Frederico Ferreira Silva BUY Frederico Ferreira Silva 94¢ $1 16h
Dublin: Oliver Crawford vs Daniil Glinka BUY Oliver Crawford 91¢ $1 16h
Poznan: Norbert Gombos vs Olle Wallin BUY Norbert Gombos 95¢ $1 16h
Poznan: Martin Krumich vs Alan Wazny BUY Martin Krumich 92¢ $1 16h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.99 · official $0.99 (match) · 3500 history records