Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T20:06:42+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
16 0x1629…f46f sports 23 markets active 1h ago coverage 8d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$174 (-9%) realized −$145 · open −$29
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR35%break-even
Win rate35%7W / 13L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$83per market
Trades / day3.9pace
Fees−$32est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$19now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$35
7 days−$251
14 days−$169
30 days−$169
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 100% −$198
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +35%
net ROI/market (all)-10.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 17 -9.7% -18.3% 35% 35% -24.8%
≤30d 20 -1.5% -10.9% 35% 35% -18.9%
≤90d 20 -1.5% -10.9% 35% 35% -18.9%
all 20 -1.5% -10.9% 35% 35% -18.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.9 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.9% 35% -18.9%
10% -19.4% 35% -26.6%
15% -27.2% 35% -33.7%
20% -34.3% 35% -40.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 25% · top 2 48% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -10% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -10% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +5% → late -8% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$115 vs −$75 · ×1.54 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.83 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

8d coverage
Net worth$19
Realized−$145
Unrealized−$29
Win rate (resolved)35%
Wins / losses7 / 13
Est. fees paid−$32
Open positions1
Markets (closed)20 / 23
History coverage8d
Avg bet$83
Trades / day3.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 20 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Piracicaba: Joaquin Aguilar vs Matheus Pucinelli de Almeida Joaquin Aguilar 34¢ 14¢ $48 $19 −$29 (-60%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 6 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Piracicaba: Lucas Da Silva vs Thiago Seyboth Wild Jun 26 $82 −$80 -98%
Will Japan vs. Sweden end in a draw? Jun 26 $90 +$191 +213%
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Caty McNally vs Petra Marcinko Jun 25 $51 +$39 +76%
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Katie Volynets vs Leolia Jeanjean Jun 25 $50 −$49 -98%
Bad Homburg Open: Emma Navarro vs Gabriela Ruse Jun 25 $66 −$65 -99%
Bad Homburg Open, Qualification: Solana Sierra vs Anna Blinkova Jun 21 $124 −$123 -99%
Lexus Eastbourne Open, Qualification: Marcos Giron vs Charles Broom Jun 21 $69 +$55 +79%
Grass Court Championships: Linda Noskova vs Alexandra Eala Jun 20 $203 −$200 -98%
Halle Open: Alexander Zverev vs Taylor Fritz Jun 20 $203 −$200 -98%
Grass Court Championships: Aryna Sabalenka vs Jessica Pegula Jun 20 $102 +$154 +152%
Lexus Eastbourne Open, Qualification: Matteo Arnaldi vs Alastair Gray Jun 20 $152 +$77 +51%
HSBC Championships: Rinky Hijikata vs Jiri Lehecka Jun 19 $10 −$10 -100%
Set Handicap: Lehecka (-1.5) vs Hijikata (+1.5) Jun 19 $52 −$52 -100%
Asuncion 2: Juan Estevez vs Gonzalo Villanueva Jun 19 $38 −$38 -100%
Halle Open: Daniel Altmaier vs Daniil Medvedev Jun 19 $101 −$101 -100%
HSBC Championships: Tommy Paul vs Alejandro Davidovich Fokina Jun 19 $48 −$48 -100%
Halle Open: Frances Tiafoe vs Felix Auger-Aliassime Jun 19 $55 +$200 +365%
Grass Court Championships: Jessica Pegula vs Madison Keys Jun 19 $59 +$91 +156%
HSBC Championships: Hamad Medjedovic vs Ugo Humbert Jun 18 $44 −$6 -15%
Halle Open: Raphael Collignon vs Mattia Bellucci Jun 18 $51 −$3 -6%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Piracicaba: Joaquin Aguilar vs Matheus Pucinelli de Almeida BUY Joaquin Aguilar 34¢ $49 1h
Piracicaba: Lucas Da Silva vs Thiago Seyboth Wild BUY Lucas Da Silva 26¢ $82 1h
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Jack Draper vs Ugo Humbert AND Mallorca Champio BUY 37¢ $150 3h
Will Japan vs. Sweden end in a draw? BUY Yes 31¢ $90 20h
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Caty McNally vs Petra Marcinko SELL Petra Marcinko 100¢ $90 25h
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Caty McNally vs Petra Marcinko BUY Petra Marcinko 56¢ $51 26h
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Katie Volynets vs Leolia Jeanjean BUY Katie Volynets 43¢ $50 28h
Bad Homburg Open: Emma Navarro vs Gabriela Ruse BUY Emma Navarro 64¢ $66 29h
Bad Homburg Open, Qualification: Solana Sierra vs Anna Blinkova BUY Anna Blinkova 55¢ $124 5d
Lexus Eastbourne Open, Qualification: Marcos Giron vs Charles Broom BUY Marcos Giron 55¢ $69 6d
Grass Court Championships: Linda Noskova vs Alexandra Eala BUY Alexandra Eala 43¢ $203 6d
Halle Open: Alexander Zverev vs Taylor Fritz BUY Alexander Zverev 47¢ $203 6d
Grass Court Championships: Aryna Sabalenka vs Jessica Pegula SELL Jessica Pegula 100¢ $256 6d
Lexus Eastbourne Open, Qualification: Matteo Arnaldi vs Alastair Gray SELL Matteo Arnaldi 100¢ $12 6d
Lexus Eastbourne Open, Qualification: Matteo Arnaldi vs Alastair Gray SELL Matteo Arnaldi 100¢ $207 6d
Lexus Eastbourne Open, Qualification: Matteo Arnaldi vs Alastair Gray SELL Matteo Arnaldi 81¢ $9 6d
Lexus Eastbourne Open, Qualification: Matteo Arnaldi vs Alastair Gray BUY Matteo Arnaldi 65¢ $152 6d
Grass Court Championships: Aryna Sabalenka vs Jessica Pegula BUY Jessica Pegula 39¢ $102 6d
Halle Open: Frances Tiafoe vs Felix Auger-Aliassime SELL Frances Tiafoe 100¢ $255 6d
Halle Open: Frances Tiafoe vs Felix Auger-Aliassime BUY Frances Tiafoe 21¢ $55 7d
HSBC Championships: Tommy Paul vs Alejandro Davidovich Fokina BUY Alejandro Davidovich Fokina 27¢ $48 7d
Halle Open: Daniel Altmaier vs Daniil Medvedev BUY Daniil Medvedev 60¢ $101 7d
Grass Court Championships: Jessica Pegula vs Madison Keys BUY Jessica Pegula 38¢ $59 7d
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 3.5 AND Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY 33¢ $51 7d
Asuncion 2: Juan Estevez vs Gonzalo Villanueva BUY Gonzalo Villanueva 28¢ $8 7d
Asuncion 2: Juan Estevez vs Gonzalo Villanueva BUY Gonzalo Villanueva 24¢ $30 7d
HSBC Championships: Hamad Medjedovic vs Ugo Humbert SELL Ugo Humbert 55¢ $38 7d
HSBC Championships: Hamad Medjedovic vs Ugo Humbert BUY Ugo Humbert 63¢ $44 8d
HSBC Championships: Rinky Hijikata vs Jiri Lehecka BUY Jiri Lehecka 64¢ $10 8d
Set Handicap: Lehecka (-1.5) vs Hijikata (+1.5) BUY Lehecka 69¢ $52 8d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $18.99 · official $14.77 · 40 history records