Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T09:04:53+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
16 0x1629…b0ec crypto 387 markets active 3h ago coverage 11d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnoverP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$211 (-0%) realized −$205 · open −$6
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -9% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -30% what you keep after slip
Net edge-30%after slip
Net WR45%break-even
Win rate46%176W / 210L
Whale WR69%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$309per market
Trades / day46.9pace
Fees−$26est.
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$702now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 11d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 98% −$2,409
sports 1% −$46
other 1% −$392
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +45%
net ROI/market (all)-17.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 202 +4.8% -5.2% 50% 50% +0.7%
≤30d 386 -8.6% -17.3% 46% 45% -11.6%
≤90d 386 -8.6% -17.3% 46% 45% -11.6%
all 386 -8.6% -17.3% 46% 45% -11.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover46.9 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -17.3% 45% -11.6%
10% ← realistic here -25.3% 44% -20.1%
15% -32.5% 42% -27.8%
20% -39.1% 39% -34.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 4% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
1% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -9% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 69% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -22% → late +5% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$305 vs −$269 · ×1.13 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.95 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

11d coverage
Net worth$702
Realized−$205
Unrealized−$6
Win rate (resolved)46%
Wins / losses176 / 210
Whale WR (big bets)69%
Est. fees paid−$26
Open positions1
Markets (closed)386 / 387
History coverage11d
Avg bet$309
Trades / day46.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 386 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Yes 62¢ 62¢ $707 $702 −$6 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 201 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Fight to Go the Distance? Jun 15 $105 −$103 -98%
Fight to Go the Distance? Jun 15 $103 −$100 -98%
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $102 +$107 +105%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 13 $548 +$742 +136%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Jun 13 $313 −$300 -96%
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights Jun 13 $203 −$200 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Jun 13 $209 −$200 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 13 $209 +$366 +175%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Jun 13 $369 +$678 +184%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 13 $310 −$300 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 13 $567 +$393 +69%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 13 $311 −$300 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Jun 13 $523 +$974 +186%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET Jun 13 $303 +$52 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Jun 13 $313 −$300 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Jun 13 $732 +$486 +66%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Jun 13 $417 −$400 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Jun 13 $376 −$361 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Jun 13 $313 −$300 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET Jun 13 $411 +$234 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET Jun 13 $209 −$200 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET Jun 13 $208 −$200 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET Jun 13 $316 +$500 +158%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET Jun 13 $106 −$100 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET Jun 13 $416 +$517 +124%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Jun 13 $414 −$400 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Jun 13 $207 +$186 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET Jun 13 $516 −$500 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET Jun 13 $519 +$604 +116%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET Jun 13 $413 −$400 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Jun 13 $204 −$200 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET Jun 13 $416 +$506 +122%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Jun 13 $199 −$190 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET Jun 13 $514 −$500 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Jun 13 $315 −$300 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET Jun 13 $313 −$300 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Jun 13 $316 +$909 +288%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Jun 13 $309 +$207 +67%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Jun 13 $313 +$487 +156%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Jun 13 $313 −$300 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Jun 13 $310 +$254 +82%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Jun 13 $416 +$430 +103%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Jun 13 $312 −$300 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Jun 13 $314 +$567 +181%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $205 −$200 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 13 $314 −$300 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Jun 13 $311 +$309 +99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Jun 13 $312 −$289 -93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Jun 13 $315 +$656 +209%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET Jun 13 $311 +$348 +112%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 62¢ $715 3h
Fight to Go the Distance? BUY Yes 36¢ $105 6h
Fight to Go the Distance? BUY Yes 15¢ $103 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET BUY Down 6¢ $27 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET BUY Up 39¢ $482 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET BUY Up 42¢ $40 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET BUY Down 40¢ $313 2d
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights BUY Golden Knights 48¢ $203 2d
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 48¢ $102 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET BUY Up 38¢ $209 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET BUY Up 35¢ $209 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET BUY Up 31¢ $210 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET BUY Up 39¢ $160 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET BUY Up 47¢ $225 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET BUY Up 69¢ $85 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $960 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET BUY Up 59¢ $169 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET BUY Up 56¢ $398 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET BUY Up 46¢ $311 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET BUY Up 36¢ $260 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET BUY Up 31¢ $264 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET BUY Down 84¢ $303 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET BUY Up 37¢ $313 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET SELL Up 58¢ $314 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET SELL Up 64¢ $904 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET BUY Up 40¢ $237 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET BUY Up 31¢ $255 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET BUY Up 35¢ $240 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET BUY Down 41¢ $58 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET BUY Down 39¢ $359 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $701.72 · official $701.72 (match) · 684 history records