Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T06:38:32+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
16 0x1624…bf63 sports 121 markets active 2h ago coverage 3d
BOTnot copyable sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Possible transfer/wash account⚠ Covers last 3d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (1106 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL +$129,997 (+71%) realized +$130,028 · open −$31
Gross ROI / mkt +84% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +36% what you keep after slip
Net edge+36%after slip
Net WR16%break-even
Win rate19%89W / 377L
Whale WR31%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1,511per market
Trades / day1105.7pace
Fees−$2,826est.
Kalshi-fit82%portable
Net worth$73now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 3d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 70% +$43,808
other 30% −$3,022
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (1106 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +16%
net ROI/market (all)+66.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 466 +84.5% +66.9% 19% 16% -29.3%
≤30d 466 +84.5% +66.9% 19% 16% -29.3%
≤90d 466 +84.5% +66.9% 19% 16% -29.3%
all 466 +84.5% +66.9% 19% 16% -29.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1105.7 tr/day
realistic slip~15%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +66.9% 16% -29.3%
10% +50.9% 14% -36.0%
15% ← realistic here +36.4% 13% -42.2%
20% +23.0% 12% -47.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 64% · top 2 68% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -23% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
15% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +84% · $-wt -23% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 31% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -2% → late +171% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
17.9 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$785 vs −$334 · ×2.35 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.56 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

3d coverage
Net worth$73
Realized+$130,028
Unrealized−$31
Win rate (resolved)19%
Wins / losses89 / 377
Whale WR (big bets)31%
Est. fees paid−$2,826
Open positions1
Markets (closed)466 / 121
History coverage3d ⚠
Avg bet$1,511
Trades / day1105.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit82%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 466 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Göztepe SK vs. Çaykur Rizespor end in a draw? Yes 20¢ $31 $1 −$31 (-98%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 499 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
LoL: Nongshim Red Force vs KT Rolster - Game 1 Winner Jun 15 $491 −$566 -115%
Will Hamburger SV win on 2026-05-10? Jun 15 $21 −$27 -130%
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs HANJIN BRION Challengers - Game 2 Winne Jun 15 $24 −$24 -100%
KBO: Lotte Giants vs. Kia Tigers Jun 15 $252 −$164 -65%
Will FC Anyang win on 2026-05-17? Jun 15 $1 +$884 +149382%
Tyler: Henry Searle vs Karl Poling Jun 15 $0 −$21 -14102%
Will SE Palmeiras win on 2026-05-31? Jun 15 $3,859 −$5,707 -148%
Will Botafogo FR win on 2026-05-30? Jun 15 $21 −$21 -100%
Internationaux de Strasbourg, Qualification: McCartney Kessler vs Oksa Jun 15 $777 −$775 -100%
KBO: LG Twins vs. NC Dinos Jun 15 $216 −$257 -119%
Manchester City FC vs. Brentford FC: O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $1 +$12 +1741%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO5) - PGL Astana Playoffs Jun 15 $1 +$975 +173527%
Cagliari Calcio vs. Torino FC: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $1 +$31 +5028%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs Dplus KIA - Game 1 Winner Jun 15 $53 −$50 -93%
Centurion 2: Harold Mayot vs Semen Pankin Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Çaykur Rizespor vs. Beşiktaş JK end in a draw? Jun 15 $1,321 −$1,621 -123%
Roland Garros, Qualification WTA: Dominika Salkova vs Susan Bandecchi Jun 15 $0 +$460 +109573%
Will Japan win on 2026-05-31? Jun 15 $1 −$11 -1788%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Luciano Darderi vs Alexander Zverev Jun 15 $3,723 −$3,725 -100%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Spirit (BO3) - PGL Astana Group Stage Jun 15 $2,206 −$2,612 -118%
Will Jeonbuk Hyundai Motors FC win on 2026-05-17? Jun 15 $223 −$232 -104%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports Challengers vs KT Rolster Challengers (BO3) - Jun 15 $17 −$37 -212%
Will Independiente Medellín win on 2026-05-20? Jun 15 $1 +$15 +2303%
Roland Garros ATP: Casper Ruud vs Tommy Paul Jun 15 $86 −$86 -100%
Roland Garros WTA: Victoria Mboko vs Madison Keys Jun 15 $2,522 −$2,518 -100%
Spread: Racing Club de Lens (-1.5) Jun 15 $0 +$3 +2678%
Knicks vs. 76ers Jun 15 $219 −$219 -100%
Valorant: Beşiktaş Esports vs CGN Esports (BO3) - VCL EMEA: Group A Jun 15 $601 −$607 -101%
Spread: Spurs (-3.5) Jun 15 $0 +$828 +405904%
KBO: Hanwha Eagles vs. Doosan Bears Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Oeiras 4: Billy Harris vs Petr Brunclik Jun 15 $3,443 −$3,960 -115%
Spurs vs. Thunder: O/U 220.5 Jun 15 $295 −$351 -119%
T20 Blast: Middlesex vs Essex Jun 15 $622 −$614 -99%
Will Georgia vs. Bahrain end in a draw? Jun 15 $1 +$1 +176%
LoL: G2 Esports vs Natus Vincere - Game 1 Winner Jun 15 $1 +$180 +35378%
KBO: Kiwoom Heroes vs. SSG Landers Jun 15 $1 +$31 +6100%
Jiujiang: Zhuoxuan Bai vs En-Shuo Liang Jun 15 $28 −$28 -100%
Will Burkina Faso win on 2026-06-05? Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-13? Jun 15 $0 +$24 +13844%
Will Bucheon FC 1995 vs. Pohang Steelers FC end in a draw? Jun 15 $1 +$24 +4153%
West Ham United FC vs. Arsenal FC: O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $1 +$121 +20411%
LoL: DN SOOPers Challengers vs Kiwoom DRX Challengers - Game 1 Winner Jun 15 $0 +$59 +25260%
Minnesota Lynx vs. Phoenix Mercury Jun 15 $1 +$694 +123878%
Will Al Nassr Saudi Club win on 2026-05-12? Jun 15 $391 −$386 -99%
Roland Garros WTA: Marta Kostyuk vs Iga Swiatek Jun 15 $0 +$1,668 +1014542%
Spread: Cavaliers (-3.5) Jun 15 $28 −$30 -108%
Counter-Strike: FaZe vs Sharks - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $52 −$38 -72%
Valencia: Aleksandar Kovacevic vs Daniel Merida Aguilar Jun 15 $41 −$57 -141%
LoL: Karmine Corp vs Movistar KOI (BO3) - Esports World Cup EMEA Quali Jun 15 $25 −$12 -50%
Geneva Open: Cameron Norrie vs Mariano Navone Jun 15 $70 −$70 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca SELL Justin Gaethje 82¢ $100 1h
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca SELL Justin Gaethje 82¢ $134 1h
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Justin Gaethje 77¢ $94 1h
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca SELL Justin Gaethje 87¢ $70 1h
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca SELL Justin Gaethje 87¢ $35 1h
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Justin Gaethje 80¢ $1,272 1h
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca SELL Justin Gaethje 81¢ $431 1h
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Justin Gaethje 75¢ $19 1h
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca SELL Justin Gaethje 81¢ $65 1h
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca SELL Justin Gaethje 81¢ $20 1h
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca SELL Justin Gaethje 70¢ $137 1h
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca SELL Justin Gaethje 66¢ $107 1h
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca SELL Justin Gaethje 66¢ $400 1h
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca SELL Justin Gaethje 66¢ $4 1h
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca SELL Justin Gaethje 66¢ $16 1h
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca SELL Justin Gaethje 65¢ $210 1h
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca SELL Justin Gaethje 65¢ $40 1h
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca SELL Justin Gaethje 65¢ $32 1h
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca SELL Justin Gaethje 65¢ $20 1h
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca SELL Justin Gaethje 64¢ $38 1h
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca SELL Justin Gaethje 63¢ $354 1h
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca SELL Justin Gaethje 63¢ $787 1h
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca SELL Justin Gaethje 63¢ $40 1h
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Justin Gaethje 58¢ $7 1h
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Justin Gaethje 58¢ $7 1h
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca SELL Justin Gaethje 64¢ $32 1h
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca SELL Justin Gaethje 64¢ $16 1h
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Justin Gaethje 58¢ $6 1h
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Justin Gaethje 56¢ $35 1h
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Justin Gaethje 57¢ $23 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $73.22 · official $1.90 · 3500 history records