Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T03:13:12+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
16 0x1622…d2ae other 120 markets active 0h ago coverage 98d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$1,246 (+5%) realized −$1,448 · open +$2,694
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -17% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -28% what you keep after slip
Net edge-28%after slip
Net WR29%break-even
Win rate43%37W / 50L
Whale WR60%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$192per market
Trades / day7.3pace
Fees−$145est.
Kalshi-fit40%portable
Net worth$9,215now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1,602
7 days+$1,101
14 days+$160
30 days+$142
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 61% +$2,975
sports 32% −$1,132
world 5% +$473
crypto 2% +$13
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +29%
net ROI/market (all)-24.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 64 -2.7% -11.9% 50% 34% -1.5%
≤30d 80 -12.1% -20.5% 45% 30% -8.6%
≤90d 82 -14.2% -22.4% 44% 29% -10.4%
all 87 -16.6% -24.6% 43% 29% -11.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover7.3 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -24.6% 29% -11.6%
10% -31.8% 24% -20.1%
15% -38.4% 23% -27.8%
20% -44.4% 21% -34.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 21% · top 2 38% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
32% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -17% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 60% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -49% → late +15% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
4.3 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$128 vs −$102 · ×1.25 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.93 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

98d coverage
Net worth$9,215
Realized−$1,448
Unrealized+$2,694
Win rate (resolved)43%
Wins / losses37 / 50
Whale WR (big bets)60%
Est. fees paid−$145
Open positions33
Markets (closed)87 / 120
History coverage98d
Avg bet$192
Trades / day7.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit40%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 33 History 87 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will South Korea advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 28¢ 100¢ $860 $3,071 +$2,211 (+257%)
Will Iran advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 26¢ 50¢ $511 $984 +$473 (+93%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 14¢ 11¢ $1,001 $734 −$267 (-27%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 12¢ 10¢ $579 $522 −$56 (-10%)
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $320 $470 +$150 (+47%)
Argentina vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 Under 41¢ 40¢ $328 $324 −$4 (-1%)
South Africa vs. Canada: O/U 2.5 Under 57¢ 56¢ $285 $282 −$3 (-1%)
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) Argentina 57¢ 94¢ $171 $280 +$109 (+64%)
Will Algeria vs. Austria end in a draw? Yes 47¢ 50¢ $239 $257 +$18 (+7%)
Will Colombia win Group K in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 48¢ 100¢ $122 $254 +$132 (+108%)
Will Harry Kane be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 6¢ 6¢ $262 $252 −$10 (-4%)
Will Norway reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 32¢ 35¢ $204 $223 +$19 (+9%)
Will Belgium reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 38¢ 38¢ $194 $194 +$0 (+0%)
Brazil vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 Over 47¢ 46¢ $188 $186 −$2 (-1%)
Will Ivory Coast be eliminated in the Round of 16 of the World Cup? Yes 23¢ 26¢ $146 $165 +$19 (+13%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 6¢ 6¢ $157 $158 +$1 (+1%)
Jordan vs. Argentina: Jordan O/U 0.5 Under 59¢ 78¢ $118 $156 +$38 (+32%)
Will Vinicius Junior be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 6¢ 5¢ $160 $144 −$15 (-10%)
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 1¢ $203 $140 −$63 (-31%)
Will Morocco be the furthest advancing CAF nation at the World Cup? Yes 38¢ 20¢ $157 $83 −$74 (-47%)
Will USA be eliminated in the Quarterfinals of the World Cup? Yes 28¢ 30¢ $64 $68 +$4 (+7%)
Will Germany reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 69¢ 69¢ $54 $54 +$0 (+1%)
Will Netherlands reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 76¢ 77¢ $53 $54 +$1 (+1%)
Will Japan be eliminated in the Round of 32 of the World Cup? Yes 67¢ 72¢ $41 $44 +$3 (+7%)
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 7¢ 8¢ $36 $40 +$4 (+11%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 31 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
DR Congo vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 2.5 Jun 28 $116 +$138 +119%
Colombia vs. Portugal: O/U 2.5 Jun 28 $433 +$197 +46%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-27? Jun 28 $5 −$2 -42%
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-27? Jun 28 $305 −$296 -97%
Will Scotland advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cu Jun 28 $512 +$976 +191%
Will Lionel Messi be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 27 $205 +$17 +8%
Will Belgium win Group G in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 27 $64 +$113 +178%
Will Ghana reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 27 $260 +$52 +20%
Spain leading at halftime? Jun 27 $130 +$175 +134%
Spread: Spain (-1.5) Jun 27 $118 −$80 -68%
Cabo Verde vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 0.5 Jun 27 $100 −$100 -100%
Will Uruguay vs. Spain end in a draw? Jun 27 $74 −$74 -100%
Will France win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $565 +$125 +22%
Will Senegal advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup Jun 26 $609 −$110 -18%
France to win the second half? Jun 26 $102 −$102 -100%
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 26 $415 +$14 +3%
Senegal vs. Iraq: Both Teams to Score Jun 26 $138 −$66 -48%
Will Cody Gakpo be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 26 $1 $0 -48%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-27? Jun 26 $228 −$15 -6%
Will France reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 26 $137 −$2 -1%
Panama vs. England: Both Teams to Score Jun 26 $126 −$126 -100%
Croatia vs. Ghana: O/U 2.5 Jun 26 $254 −$254 -100%
Will Switzerland reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 26 $83 +$5 +6%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $308 +$841 +273%
Türkiye vs. United States: O/U 2.5 Jun 26 $196 +$154 +79%
Türkiye vs. United States: Both Teams to Score Jun 26 $30 +$23 +75%
Will Portugal reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 26 $8 $0 +1%
Paraguay vs. Australia: O/U 2.5 Jun 26 $145 −$126 -87%
Will Japan reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 26 $616 +$8 +1%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $152 +$153 +101%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $73 +$227 +311%
Will South Korea reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 25 $684 −$114 -17%
Will Senegal be the furthest advancing CAF nation at the World Cup? Jun 25 $145 −$13 -9%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $209 +$14 +7%
Will Croatia vs. Ghana end in a draw? Jun 25 $145 −$145 -100%
Will Japan reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 25 $216 +$28 +13%
Will Neymar score 1+ goals during the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 25 $6 +$1 +14%
Japan vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5 Jun 25 $196 −$11 -5%
Will Cape Verde finish last in Group H in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Grou Jun 25 $104 −$103 -100%
Will Czechia advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup Jun 25 $121 +$129 +107%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 Jun 25 $207 +$93 +45%
Scotland vs. Brazil: Scotland O/U 0.5 Jun 25 $85 +$75 +89%
Spread: Morocco (-1.5) Jun 25 $299 +$221 +74%
Will Morocco win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 24 $47 −$41 -88%
Will Qatar advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 24 $158 +$55 +34%
Will Paraguay advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cu Jun 24 $324 −$54 -17%
Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar: O/U 4.5 Jun 24 $63 −$63 -100%
Will Netherlands reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 24 $407 +$12 +3%
Colombia vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 Jun 24 $296 +$207 +70%
Panama vs. Croatia: Panama O/U 0.5 Jun 23 $70 −$70 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Argentina vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 41¢ $328 12m
Will USA be eliminated in the Quarterfinals of the World Cup? SELL Yes 30¢ $11 14m
Will USA be eliminated in the Quarterfinals of the World Cup? SELL Yes 30¢ $12 16m
Will USA be eliminated in the Quarterfinals of the World Cup? SELL Yes 30¢ $4 37m
Will USA be eliminated in the Quarterfinals of the World Cup? SELL Yes 30¢ $22 37m
Will USA be eliminated in the Quarterfinals of the World Cup? SELL Yes 30¢ $9 38m
Will Portugal be eliminated in the Round of 16 of the World Cup? BUY Yes 31¢ $5 40m
Will USA be eliminated in the Quarterfinals of the World Cup? SELL Yes 30¢ $9 1h
Will USA be eliminated in the Quarterfinals of the World Cup? SELL Yes 30¢ $5 1h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-27? SELL Yes 8¢ $3 1h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 13¢ $5 1h
Will USA be eliminated in the Quarterfinals of the World Cup? SELL Yes 30¢ $3 1h
Will Belgium reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 38¢ $198 1h
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-27? SELL Yes 1¢ $9 1h
Will Algeria vs. Austria end in a draw? BUY Yes 47¢ $243 1h
Will Argentina be eliminated in the Final of the World Cup? BUY Yes 15¢ $1 2h
Will Argentina be eliminated in the Final of the World Cup? BUY Yes 15¢ $1 2h
Will USA be eliminated in the Quarterfinals of the World Cup? SELL Yes 30¢ $22 2h
Will Portugal be eliminated in the Round of 16 of the World Cup? BUY Yes 28¢ $6 2h
Will Portugal be eliminated in the Round of 16 of the World Cup? BUY Yes 28¢ $13 2h
Will Portugal be eliminated in the Round of 16 of the World Cup? BUY Yes 28¢ $1 2h
Will Portugal be eliminated in the Semifinals of the World Cup? BUY Yes 10¢ $2 2h
Will Algeria vs. Austria end in a draw? SELL Yes 46¢ $230 3h
Will Harry Kane be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 7¢ $158 4h
Will Harry Kane be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 8¢ $8 4h
Will Lionel Messi be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 39¢ $16 4h
Will Lionel Messi be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 39¢ $98 6h
Will Lionel Messi be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 39¢ $109 6h
Will Lionel Messi be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 39¢ $23 6h
Will Ivory Coast be eliminated in the Round of 16 of the World Cup? BUY Yes 23¢ $25 6h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $9,214.96 · official $9,215.21 (match) · 778 history records