Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T22:22:02+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
16 0x1620…49c7 other 11 markets active 2h ago coverage 5d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$1 (+0%) realized +$1 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -11% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR45%break-even
Win rate64%7W / 4L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$120per market
Trades / day4.0pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit55%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 5d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 88% −$50
sports 10% +$36
crypto 2% +$10
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +45%
net ROI/market (all)-19.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 11 -10.9% -19.4% 64% 45% -9.8%
≤30d 11 -10.9% -19.4% 64% 45% -9.8%
≤90d 11 -10.9% -19.4% 64% 45% -9.8%
all 11 -10.9% -19.4% 64% 45% -9.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.0 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -19.4% 45% -9.8%
10% -27.1% 36% -18.5%
15% -34.1% 27% -26.3%
20% -40.6% 18% -33.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 39% · top 2 67% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
29% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -11% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$22 vs −$40 · ×0.56 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.97 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

5d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$1
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)64%
Wins / losses7 / 4
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions0
Markets (closed)11 / 11
History coverage5d
Avg bet$120
Trades / day4.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit55%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 11 Trades
no open positions (4 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Senegal vs. Iraq: O/U 3.5 Jun 26 $50 +$21 +42%
Will France win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $501 +$44 +9%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar end in a draw? Jun 24 $50 +$14 +27%
Will Switzerland vs. Canada end in a draw? Jun 24 $36 +$1 +4%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $34 −$34 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Jun 22 $5 +$5 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 22 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 22 $10 +$10 +97%
Will France win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $21 −$20 -97%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $101 −$100 -99%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $502 +$60 +12%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will France win on 2026-06-26? SELL Yes 98¢ $545 1h
Senegal vs. Iraq: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 70¢ $50 3h
Will France win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 90¢ $501 3h
Will Switzerland vs. Canada end in a draw? SELL Yes 35¢ $28 2d
Will Switzerland vs. Canada end in a draw? SELL Yes 35¢ $7 2d
Will Switzerland vs. Canada end in a draw? SELL Yes 35¢ $1 2d
Will Switzerland vs. Canada end in a draw? SELL Yes 35¢ $1 2d
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar end in a draw? BUY No 78¢ $50 2d
Will Switzerland vs. Canada end in a draw? BUY Yes 33¢ $36 2d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? BUY No 17¢ $5 3d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? BUY No 17¢ $2 3d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? BUY No 17¢ $6 3d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? BUY No 17¢ $21 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $5 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $5 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET BUY Down 49¢ $5 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET BUY Down 49¢ $5 4d
Will France win on 2026-06-22? BUY No 10¢ $21 4d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 72¢ $101 5d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 89¢ $401 5d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 89¢ $100 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 26 history records