Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T06:48:32+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
16 0x1620…285d sports 57 markets active 17h ago coverage 119d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$29 (-9%) realized −$29 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR42%break-even
Win rate51%29W / 28L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$6per market
Trades / day0.9pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit95%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$13
7 days−$8
14 days−$8
30 days−$4
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 82% −$37
crypto 7% +$8
weather 5% −$3
world 4% −$2
other 2% +$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +42%
net ROI/market (all)-9.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 -29.4% -36.1% 33% 33% -25.4%
≤30d 7 +21.2% +9.7% 43% 43% -18.4%
≤90d 31 -13.1% -21.4% 39% 35% -38.4%
all 57 -0.4% -9.9% 51% 42% -18.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.9% 42% -18.2%
10% -18.5% 35% -26.0%
15% -26.4% 30% -33.1%
20% -33.6% 28% -39.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 18% · top 2 33% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -32% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
17% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -10% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +15% → late -15% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$5 · ×0.76 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.78 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

119d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$29
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)51%
Wins / losses29 / 28
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions0
Markets (closed)57 / 57
History coverage119d
Avg bet$6
Trades / day0.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit95%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 57 Trades
no open positions (5 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Counter-Strike: Gentle Mates vs Nuclear TigeRES - Map 2 Winner Jun 16 $14 +$13 +89%
Texas Rangers vs. Kansas City Royals Jun 11 $1 −$1 -99%
Map Handicap: VP (-1.5) vs KOLESIE (+1.5) Jun 11 $14 −$14 -98%
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs Virtus.pro (BO3) - European Pro League Seri Jun 11 $10 −$10 -99%
Counter-Strike: against All authority vs RUSTEC (BO3) - European Pro L Jun 10 $4 +$5 +134%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 10 $1 −$1 -95%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-01? Jun 02 $1 +$3 +325%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 26°C on May 9? May 09 $1 $0 +22%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 25°C on May 8? May 07 $1 +$1 +73%
Counter-Strike: UNiTY esports vs Bebop (BO3) - CCT Europe Series 1 Gro May 07 $10 −$10 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 23°C on May 7? May 07 $1 +$1 +67%
Counter-Strike: Imperial Academy vs Brute (BO3) - United21 Playoffs Apr 28 $22 −$22 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 11, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Apr 11 $12 +$11 +93%
Counter-Strike: Metizport vs Basement Bobs (BO3) - European Pro League Apr 11 $36 −$25 -68%
Valorant: All Gamers vs TYLOO (BO3) - VCT China Group Alpha Apr 11 $1 $0 -11%
Counter-Strike: Falcons Force vs B8 - Map 2 Winner Apr 02 $16 +$21 +128%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 23, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET Apr 02 $2 $0 -10%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - March 28, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Mar 30 $3 −$2 -56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 28, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Mar 28 $1 $0 -31%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 28°C on March 23? Mar 23 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 29°C on March 23? Mar 23 $2 +$3 +193%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 30°C on March 23? Mar 23 $1 −$1 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 27°C on March 23? Mar 23 $0 $0 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 17, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET Mar 23 $3 −$3 -100%
Daniel Gafford: Points O/U 9.5 Mar 23 $32 −$32 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 9, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Mar 23 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 4°C on February 27? Mar 23 $2 −$2 -100%
Keyonte George: Assists O/U 4.5 Mar 19 $2 −$2 -100%
Solana Up or Down - March 18, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Mar 19 $1 −$1 -100%
Dota 2: paiN Gaming vs L1ga Team - Game 2 Winner Mar 19 $2 +$1 +28%
Dota 2: AVULUS vs VP.Prodigy - Game 2 Winner Mar 19 $15 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 18, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Mar 18 $1 $0 +46%
Counter-Strike: Alliance vs Favbet - Map 1 Winner Mar 18 $10 +$7 +68%
Counter-Strike: Heroic vs FlyQuest (BO3) - DraculaN Playoffs Mar 18 $2 −$2 -100%
Donovan Clingan: Rebounds O/U 12.5 Mar 18 $7 −$7 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 3°C on February 27? Mar 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 5°C on February 28? Mar 18 $2 −$2 -100%
Dota 2: AVULUS vs Team Shpilit (BO3) - PREMIER SERIES Play-In Group A Mar 18 $6 +$5 +82%
Dota 2: AVULUS vs Team Shpilit - Game 1 Winner Mar 18 $5 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 17, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Mar 17 $1 +$1 +103%
Counter-Strike: HOTU vs Bebop (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #18 Playoffs Mar 17 $7 $0 +2%
Dota 2: Astini+5 vs L1ga Team - Game 1 Winner Mar 17 $9 $0 +4%
Miami Open, Qualification: Jay Clarke vs Shintaro Mochizuki Mar 17 $4 +$3 +64%
Dota 2: VP.Prodigy vs Rune Eaters (BO3) - PREMIER SERIES Play-In Group Mar 16 $3 +$1 +30%
Counter-Strike: Legacy vs Aurora Gaming - Map 1 Winner Mar 13 $11 +$3 +23%
Jamal Murray: Rebounds O/U 3.5 Mar 09 $2 −$1 -68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 9, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Mar 09 $1 +$1 +147%
Royce O'Neale: Points O/U 8.5 Mar 07 $10 +$18 +177%
Nicolas Claxton: Assists O/U 3.5 Mar 02 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 6°C on February 28? Feb 28 $2 $0 +13%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: Gentle Mates vs Nuclear TigeRES - Map 2 Winner SELL Nuclear TigeRES 100¢ $27 17h
Counter-Strike: Gentle Mates vs Nuclear TigeRES - Map 2 Winner BUY Nuclear TigeRES 52¢ $14 18h
Texas Rangers vs. Kansas City Royals BUY Kansas City Royals 52¢ $1 5d
Map Handicap: VP (-1.5) vs KOLESIE (+1.5) BUY Virtus.pro 34¢ $14 5d
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs Virtus.pro (BO3) - European Pro League Seri BUY Virtus.pro 63¢ $10 5d
Counter-Strike: against All authority vs RUSTEC (BO3) - European Pro L SELL against All authority 100¢ $10 6d
Counter-Strike: against All authority vs RUSTEC (BO3) - European Pro L BUY against All authority 42¢ $4 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET BUY Up 21¢ $1 6d
Will Austria win on 2026-06-01? BUY Yes 23¢ $1 15d
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 26°C on May 9? SELL Yes 10¢ $1 38d
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 26°C on May 9? BUY Yes 8¢ $1 38d
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 26°C on May 9? SELL Yes 19¢ $0 39d
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 26°C on May 9? BUY Yes 13¢ $0 40d
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 25°C on May 8? SELL Yes 19¢ $2 40d
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 25°C on May 8? BUY Yes 11¢ $0 40d
Counter-Strike: UNiTY esports vs Bebop (BO3) - CCT Europe Series 1 Gro BUY Bebop 56¢ $10 40d
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 25°C on May 8? BUY Yes 11¢ $0 41d
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 25°C on May 8? BUY Yes 11¢ $0 41d
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 23°C on May 7? SELL Yes 14¢ $2 41d
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 23°C on May 7? BUY Yes 8¢ $0 41d
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 23°C on May 7? BUY Yes 8¢ $0 41d
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 23°C on May 7? BUY Yes 8¢ $0 41d
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 23°C on May 7? BUY Yes 8¢ $0 41d
Counter-Strike: Imperial Academy vs Brute (BO3) - United21 Playoffs BUY Imperial Academy 38¢ $22 65d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 11, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET SELL Up 73¢ $23 66d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 11, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET BUY Up 36¢ $12 66d
Counter-Strike: Metizport vs Basement Bobs (BO3) - European Pro League SELL Basement Bobs 10¢ $11 66d
Counter-Strike: Metizport vs Basement Bobs (BO3) - European Pro League BUY Basement Bobs 31¢ $36 66d
Valorant: All Gamers vs TYLOO (BO3) - VCT China Group Alpha SELL TYLOO 64¢ $1 66d
Valorant: All Gamers vs TYLOO (BO3) - VCT China Group Alpha BUY TYLOO 71¢ $1 66d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 134 history records