Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T09:54:10+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
16 0x161f…0f10 other 101 markets active 2h ago coverage 489d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$48 (+0%) realized +$47 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +20% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +9% what you keep after slip
Net edge+9%after slip
Net WR6%break-even
Win rate36%36W / 64L
Drawdown31%max
Avg bet$118per market
Trades / day1.0pace
Fees−$11est.
Kalshi-fit62%portable
Net worth$181now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$10
7 days−$10
14 days+$2
30 days−$10
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 56% +$55
other 20% −$8
politics 13% +$5
sports 9% −$1
tech 1% +$10
finance 1% −$9
crypto 0% −$2
culture 0% $0
economics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +6%
net ROI/market (all)+8.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 -1.0% -10.4% 22% 0% -10.1%
≤30d 34 +58.0% +43.0% 26% 3% -9.7%
≤90d 47 +43.3% +29.7% 32% 4% -9.2%
all 100 +20.4% +8.9% 36% 6% -9.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +8.9% 6% -9.2%
10% -1.5% 5% -17.8%
15% -11.0% 2% -25.8%
20% -19.7% 2% -33.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 53% · top 2 63% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
83% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +20% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late +41% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$1 · ×2.08 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.03 per $1 lost it wins $2.03
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

489d coverage
Net worth$181
Realized+$47
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)36%
Wins / losses36 / 64
Est. fees paid−$11
Open positions1
Markets (closed)100 / 101
History coverage489d
Avg bet$118
Trades / day1.0
Drawdown31%
Kalshi-fit62%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 100 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? No 84¢ 84¢ $179 $180 +$1 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? Jun 23 $150 −$13 -8%
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? Jun 21 $190 $0 +0%
Cuban regime falls in 2026? Jun 21 $266 +$3 +1%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 19 $228 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? Jun 18 $184 $0 -0%
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 18 $15 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 18 $188 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 17 $2 $0 -2%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? Jun 17 $187 $0 +0%
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? Jun 16 $60 +$3 +4%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 15 $205 −$1 -0%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 15 $152 +$6 +4%
Netanyahu out by June 30? Jun 13 $214 $0 +0%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 13 $10 $0 -5%
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? Jun 11 $294 $0 -0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 10 $245 −$2 -1%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? Jun 10 $64 +$7 +11%
Iran Nuke before 2027? Jun 09 $3 $0 -2%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 08 $256 +$2 +1%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 07 $199 $0 -0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 07 $196 $0 +0%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 06 $5 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 06 $375 $0 +0%
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 04 $585 $0 +0%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 30 $79 −$9 -12%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? May 30 $332 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? May 30 $345 −$3 -1%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia May 29 $183 $0 -0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? May 29 $202 −$2 -1%
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab May 28 $114 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma May 28 $183 $0 -0%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? May 26 $166 +$2 +1%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 26 $8 +$1 +8%
Iran leadership change by May 31? May 26 $8 −$1 -14%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? May 22 $171 −$7 -4%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 21 $71 +$51 +71%
Jeffrey Epstein foul play confirmed by December 31, 2026? May 14 $298 $0 -0%
Will the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) win the most seats in the 2026 W Apr 24 $157 +$5 +3%
Will Elon Musk post 1080-1119 tweets in April 2026? Apr 24 $140 +$1 +1%
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? Apr 22 $141 +$9 +7%
Will Elon Musk post 1160-1199 tweets in April 2026? Apr 21 $119 $0 +0%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 17 $1,040 +$1 +0%
Will Charlotte FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Apr 16 $101 −$2 -2%
Will Lorenzo Musetti win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 16 $260 +$1 +0%
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 15 $22 −$2 -10%
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 15 $1,318 $0 +0%
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? Apr 15 $1,526 $0 +0%
Israel x Hamas ceasefire by July 15? Aug 10 $11 $0 +1%
Will Elon and DOGE cut between $50-100b in federal spending in 2025? Jul 16 $1 $0 -27%
Will Superman be the top grossing movie of 2025? Jul 16 $2 $0 +23%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? BUY No 84¢ $179 1h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? SELL Yes 14¢ $46 6h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? SELL Yes 14¢ $3 6h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? BUY Yes 14¢ $48 8h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? SELL Yes 14¢ $22 8h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? SELL Yes 14¢ $12 8h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? SELL Yes 14¢ $22 8h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? SELL Yes 14¢ $25 8h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? SELL Yes 14¢ $8 8h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? BUY Yes 16¢ $102 11h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL No 74¢ $38 39h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL No 74¢ $149 39h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL No 74¢ $3 39h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY No 74¢ $141 40h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY No 74¢ $50 40h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL No 82¢ $210 42h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY No 82¢ $210 42h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL Yes 18¢ $2 2d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL Yes 19¢ $57 2d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY Yes 18¢ $32 2d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY Yes 18¢ $24 2d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 94¢ $26 3d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 93¢ $5 3d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 93¢ $5 3d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 93¢ $5 3d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 94¢ $17 3d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 93¢ $55 3d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 93¢ $5 3d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 93¢ $5 3d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 93¢ $5 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $180.84 · official $179.99 (match) · 483 history records