Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T09:41:38+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
16 0x161e…d5d0 world 48 markets active 2h ago coverage 30d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$194 (-4%) realized −$201 · open +$7
Gross ROI / mkt -9% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -21% what you keep after slip
Net edge-21%after slip
Net WR9%break-even
Win rate21%10W / 37L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$92per market
Trades / day5.9pace
Kalshi-fit73%portable
Net worth$57now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$5
14 days−$91
30 days−$230
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 68% −$126
other 15% −$77
politics 14% −$11
crypto 2% −$5
tech 1% −$1
finance 0% −$1
economics 0% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +9%
net ROI/market (all)-17.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +0.4% -9.2% 50% 0% -7.5%
≤30d 47 -9.3% -17.9% 21% 9% -14.3%
≤90d 47 -9.3% -17.9% 21% 9% -14.3%
all 47 -9.3% -17.9% 21% 9% -14.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.9 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -17.9% 9% -14.3%
10% -25.8% 6% -22.5%
15% -32.9% 0% -30.0%
20% -39.5% 0% -36.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 34% · top 2 60% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -5% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
60% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -9% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -11% → late -8% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$19 vs −$11 · ×1.68 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.46 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

30d coverage
Net worth$57
Realized−$201
Unrealized+$7
Win rate (resolved)21%
Wins / losses10 / 37
Open positions1
Markets (closed)47 / 48
History coverage30d
Avg bet$92
Trades / day5.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit73%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 47 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? Yes 53¢ 60¢ $50 $57 +$7 (+14%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 14 $159 +$6 +4%
Will Karen Bass win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? Jun 11 $51 −$2 -3%
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? Jun 08 $170 −$127 -75%
US-Iran nuclear deal by July 31? Jun 08 $180 −$2 -1%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 07 $180 −$7 -4%
Will Tom Steyer advance from the 2026 California Governor primary elec Jun 06 $142 +$41 +29%
Israel announces Lebanon ceasefire extension by June 30? Jun 01 $200 −$63 -31%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 01 $286 +$7 +2%
Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026? Jun 01 $36 −$2 -5%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? May 31 $207 +$49 +24%
Will Trump restart Project Freedom by May 31? May 26 $90 −$54 -60%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026? May 26 $656 +$65 +10%
Israel x Lebanon diplomatic meeting by May 31? May 25 $170 −$12 -7%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 25 $150 −$25 -16%
Will India strike Pakistan by December 31, 2026? May 23 $80 −$8 -10%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? May 23 $170 +$7 +4%
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 by December 31, 2026? May 22 $93 −$6 -7%
No one announced as next James Bond? May 22 $106 −$3 -3%
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? May 22 $55 −$1 -1%
Will Spencer Pratt win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? May 22 $36 −$2 -5%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? May 21 $25 $0 -2%
Nawaf Salam out as Lebanon PM in 2026? May 21 $30 −$10 -32%
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? May 21 $49 $0 -0%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 20 May 21 $15 −$1 -4%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decem May 21 $23 −$1 -4%
Trump out as President before GTA VI? May 21 $30 −$2 -7%
U.S. agrees to a new trade deal with "South Korea" before 2027? May 21 $18 −$2 -10%
Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026? May 21 $10 $0 -2%
Will the Bank of Israel decrease the Bank of Israel Interest Rate afte May 21 $10 −$2 -18%
Iran closes its airspace by May 27? May 21 $50 −$1 -3%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 21 $228 $0 +0%
Will Nicolás Maduro be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? May 20 $10 $0 +1%
Will Jesus Christ return before GTA VI? May 20 $28 −$2 -7%
NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? May 20 $170 −$11 -6%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? May 20 $20 −$2 -9%
Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by December 31? May 20 $15 −$1 -5%
Iran closes its airspace by June 15? May 20 $10 $0 -2%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? May 20 $10 −$1 -13%
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? May 20 $36 −$4 -10%
Predict.fun FDV above $50M one day after launch? May 20 $43 −$14 -33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET May 20 $5 +$2 +31%
Taylor Swift x Travis Kelce get married by June 30? May 19 $42 −$34 -81%
Netanyahu out by end of 2026? May 19 $92 −$2 -2%
Will John Cornyn win the 2026 Texas Republican Primary? May 19 $69 +$15 +22%
Will Thomas Massie be the Republican nominee for KY-04? May 19 $75 −$3 -4%
Will Elon Musk win his case against Sam Altman? May 19 $21 −$13 -62%
Will Ken Paxton win the Texas Republican Senate Primary runoff by 9% o May 19 $21 −$4 -18%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY Yes 53¢ $50 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 58¢ $53 3d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 54¢ $49 6d
Will Karen Bass win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? SELL Yes 60¢ $49 6d
Will Karen Bass win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? BUY Yes 60¢ $51 8d
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? SELL Yes 15¢ $43 9d
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? BUY Yes 60¢ $170 10d
US-Iran nuclear deal by July 31? SELL No 64¢ $178 10d
US-Iran nuclear deal by July 31? BUY No 65¢ $180 10d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL No 70¢ $173 10d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY No 73¢ $180 10d
Will Tom Steyer advance from the 2026 California Governor primary elec SELL No 88¢ $183 11d
Will Tom Steyer advance from the 2026 California Governor primary elec BUY No 67¢ $142 16d
Israel announces Lebanon ceasefire extension by June 30? SELL No 40¢ $137 16d
Israel announces Lebanon ceasefire extension by June 30? BUY No 58¢ $200 17d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL No 74¢ $173 17d
Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026? SELL No 60¢ $34 17d
Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026? BUY No 61¢ $36 17d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 71¢ $100 18d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $138 18d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 66¢ $61 20d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? SELL No 92¢ $23 20d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 52¢ $31 21d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 50¢ $30 21d
Will Trump restart Project Freedom by May 31? SELL Yes 14¢ $36 22d
Will Trump restart Project Freedom by May 31? BUY Yes 35¢ $90 22d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026? SELL No 95¢ $91 22d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? BUY No 66¢ $109 23d
Israel x Lebanon diplomatic meeting by May 31? SELL No 36¢ $41 23d
Israel x Lebanon diplomatic meeting by May 31? BUY No 44¢ $50 23d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $57.08 · official $57.08 (match) · 175 history records