Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T14:38:19+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

16
0x161d…9181
crypto · 722 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
−$163 -6%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$163 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP crypto specialist
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$0
Realized−$163
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)53%
Wins / losses381 / 341
Open positions0
Markets (closed)722 / 722
History coverage144d
Avg bet$4
Trades / day7.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%
Chart Positions 0 History 722 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$2
7 days+$14
14 days−$2
30 days+$14
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET Down 52¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET Down 54¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET Up 37¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 8, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET Up 50¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET Down 51¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET Up 44¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET Up 48¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 22, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET Down 54¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET Up 43¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET Up 47¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET Up 51¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET Up 53¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 9, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET Down 55¢ 0¢ $7 $0 −$7 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 25, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET Down 52¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET Down 51¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET Up 51¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET Down 50¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET Up 29¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 27, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET Up 56¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET Up 65¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 16, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET Down 54¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 13, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET Down 57¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET Up 54¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 15, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET Down 54¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 8, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET Up 55¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET Jun 13 $2 +$1 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET Jun 13 $4 −$4 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET Jun 13 $2 +$2 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET Jun 13 $2 $0 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET Jun 13 $2 +$1 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET Jun 12 $2 +$2 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET Jun 12 $2 +$1 +58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET Jun 12 $2 +$1 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET Jun 12 $4 +$3 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET Jun 12 $2 −$2 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET Jun 12 $4 −$4 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET Jun 12 $2 −$2 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET Jun 12 $2 +$1 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET Jun 12 $4 +$3 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET Jun 12 $2 −$2 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET Jun 12 $4 +$3 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET Jun 12 $4 −$4 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET Jun 12 $2 −$2 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET Jun 12 $2 −$2 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET Jun 11 $2 +$2 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET Jun 11 $2 +$1 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET Jun 11 $2 +$2 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET Jun 11 $4 $0 -10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET Jun 11 $2 +$1 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET Jun 11 $2 +$1 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET Jun 11 $2 +$1 +71%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET Jun 11 $2 +$2 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET Jun 11 $2 +$2 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET Jun 10 $2 +$2 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET Jun 10 $2 +$1 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET Jun 10 $2 $0 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET Jun 10 $2 −$1 -49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET Jun 10 $2 +$2 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET Jun 10 $4 −$4 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET Jun 10 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET Jun 10 $2 −$1 -36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET Jun 10 $4 $0 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET Jun 09 $2 +$2 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET Jun 09 $4 $0 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET Jun 09 $2 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET Jun 09 $4 +$1 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET Jun 09 $2 −$1 -33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET Jun 09 $4 +$3 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET Jun 09 $2 −$2 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET Jun 09 $4 +$4 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET Jun 09 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET Jun 09 $2 −$1 -51%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET Jun 09 $2 +$1 +56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET Jun 09 $2 +$1 +50%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 100% −$163
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET BUY Down 60¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET BUY Down 56¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET BUY Down 56¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET BUY Down 55¢ $2 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET BUY Up 85¢ $2 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET BUY Down 75¢ $2 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET SELL Up 95¢ $4 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $2 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $3 23h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET BUY Down 61¢ $2 23h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET BUY Up 62¢ $2 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET BUY Up 56¢ $4 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET BUY Up 56¢ $2 26h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET BUY Up 55¢ $4 26h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $2 26h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET BUY Down 67¢ $2 27h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET BUY Down 55¢ $4 29h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET BUY Down 54¢ $2 29h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET BUY Down 57¢ $4 30h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET BUY Down 58¢ $4 30h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $2 30h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET BUY Down 61¢ $2 30h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $2 43h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET BUY Down 64¢ $2 44h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET SELL Up 54¢ $4 45h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET BUY Up 56¢ $4 45h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET BUY Up 55¢ $2 45h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET BUY Down 66¢ $2 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET BUY Up 68¢ $2 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $4 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +49%
net ROI/market (all)-16.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 63 +7.5% -2.7% 62% 59% -1.5%
≤30d 220 +0.1% -9.5% 58% 52% -6.7%
≤90d 532 -6.6% -15.5% 53% 49% -14.6%
all 722 -7.1% -16.0% 53% 49% -14.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover7.7 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -16.0% 49% -14.6%
10% -24.0% 47% -22.8%
15% -31.3% 44% -30.3%
20% -38.1% 40% -37.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1478 history records