Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T02:44:33+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
16 0x161a…5988 world 25 markets active 1h ago coverage 4d
RISKYcopy with care world specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$1 (-3%) realized −$3 · open +$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -67% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -73% what you keep after slip
Net edge-73%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate0%0W / 3L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1per market
Trades / day8.9pace
Kalshi-fit96%portable
Net worth$31now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 4d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
world 91% $0
culture 6% $0
other 3% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-70.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -67.4% -70.5% 0% 0% -70.5%
≤30d 3 -67.4% -70.5% 0% 0% -70.5%
≤90d 3 -67.4% -70.5% 0% 0% -70.5%
all 3 -67.4% -70.5% 0% 0% -70.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover8.9 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -70.5% 0% -70.5%
10% -73.3% 0% -73.3%
15% -75.9% 0% -75.9%
20% -78.2% 0% -78.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top —% · top 2 —% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -67% too few recent
Fragile wins
—% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -67% · $-wt -67% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
— vs −$1 no data
Profit factor
×0.0 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

4d coverage
Net worth$31
Realized−$3
Unrealized+$2
Win rate (resolved)0%
Wins / losses0 / 3
Open positions22
Markets (closed)3 / 25
History coverage4d
Avg bet$1
Trades / day8.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit96%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 22 History 3 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Yes 15¢ 100¢ $1 $7 +$6 (+553%)
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Yes 20¢ 19¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-7%)
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026? Yes 83¢ 93¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+13%)
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? No 82¢ 86¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+4%)
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 17, 2026? Yes 14¢ 14¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-7%)
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026? No 55¢ 96¢ $1 $2 +$1 (+74%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Yes 21¢ 18¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-16%)
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 18, 2026? Yes 29¢ 22¢ $2 $1 −$1 (-25%)
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? Yes 35¢ 46¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+31%)
Will Donald Trump attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting? Yes 5¢ 6¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+28%)
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 30? Yes 4¢ 4¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+11%)
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? No 74¢ 81¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+10%)
New Rihanna Album before GTA VI? No 49¢ 48¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-2%)
New Playboi Carti Album before GTA VI? No 49¢ 48¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-2%)
Will Iran close its airspace by July 15? Yes 14¢ 14¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-4%)
Will Iran close its airspace by July 31? Yes 25¢ 23¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-8%)
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30? No 53¢ 30¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-42%)
Will JD Vance have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by June 30, 2026? No 24¢ 12¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-48%)
Israel strike on Yemen by June 30, 2026? Yes 20¢ 8¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-60%)
Will MegaETH perform an airdrop by June 30? Yes 15¢ 5¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-66%)
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 16, 2026? Yes 35¢ 7¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-80%)
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Yes 15¢ 3¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-83%)
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026? No 1¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-88%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 14 $1 $0 -2%
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 15? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $1 1h
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 85¢ $1 6h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY Yes 18¢ $1 13h
Will Iran close its airspace by July 15? BUY Yes 14¢ $1 16h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 16, 2026? BUY Yes 35¢ $1 17h
Will Donald Trump attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting? BUY Yes 5¢ $1 17h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 17, 2026? BUY Yes 14¢ $1 27h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026? BUY Yes 84¢ $1 32h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 18, 2026? BUY Yes 25¢ $1 32h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 28¢ $1 32h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 17, 2026? BUY Yes 15¢ $1 33h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY Yes 35¢ $1 34h
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026? BUY No 1¢ $1 34h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 18, 2026? BUY Yes 34¢ $1 37h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026? BUY Yes 82¢ $1 37h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 74¢ $1 38h
Will JD Vance have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by June 30, 2026? BUY No 24¢ $1 41h
Will Iran close its airspace by July 31? BUY Yes 25¢ $1 43h
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30 BUY No 53¢ $1 44h
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 80¢ $1 46h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 25¢ $1 2d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 15¢ $1 2d
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 30? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 2d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 2d
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 30? BUY No 96¢ $1 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY Yes 25¢ $1 2d
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026? BUY No 55¢ $1 2d
Will MegaETH perform an airdrop by June 30? BUY Yes 15¢ $1 2d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? SELL Yes 55¢ $1 2d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? BUY Yes 56¢ $1 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $31.37 · official $31.38 (match) · 36 history records