Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T02:23:14+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
16 0x161a…79ea world 29 markets active 0h ago coverage 375d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$1 (+0%) realized +$1 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +13% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +2% what you keep after slip
Net edge+2%after slip
Net WR10%break-even
Win rate34%10W / 19L
Drawdown59%max
Avg bet$24per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit62%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 56% $0
other 30% $0
politics 14% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +10%
net ROI/market (all)+2.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -0.6% -10.1% 0% 0% -10.1%
≤30d 11 +32.2% +19.6% 27% 18% -9.6%
≤90d 11 +32.2% +19.6% 27% 18% -9.6%
all 29 +12.7% +2.0% 34% 10% -9.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +2.0% 10% -9.4%
10% -7.8% 3% -18.1%
15% -16.7% 3% -26.0%
20% -24.8% 3% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 21% · top 2 36% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
70% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +13% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late +24% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×1.27 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.41 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

375d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$1
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)34%
Wins / losses10 / 19
Open positions0
Markets (closed)29 / 29
History coverage375d
Avg bet$24
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown59%
Kalshi-fit62%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 29 Trades
no open positions (1 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 19 $37 $0 -1%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? Jun 17 $37 $0 +0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 03 $52 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 03 $60 $0 +0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 02 $2 $0 +20%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 02 $36 $0 -0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 01 $39 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 31 $33 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? May 30 $33 $0 -0%
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? May 28 $37 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? May 26 $34 $0 -1%
Will Marco Rubio leave the Trump administration in 2025? Jul 15 $3 $0 +13%
Will the Kansas City Royals win the 2025 World Series? Jul 15 $2 $0 -0%
Will Virgil Alexandru Zidaru be the next Mayor of Bucharest? Jun 23 $17 $0 -0%
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense before July? Jun 22 $17 $0 -0%
Israel strike on Iran on June 24? Jun 22 $16 $0 -1%
Israel strike on Iran on June 21? Jun 22 $20 $0 +1%
Will 'The Fantastic Four: First Steps' have the best domestic opening Jun 21 $20 $0 +0%
Will SPD win the most seats in the next Czech parliamentary election? Jun 19 $20 $0 +0%
Will Rodrigo Paz win the 2025 Bolivia presidential election? Jun 18 $20 $0 +0%
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win Super Bowl 2026? Jun 18 $20 $0 +0%
Will the next Prime Minister of Romania be Dacian Cioloș? Jun 16 $20 $0 +1%
Will Javier Milei be the first leader out in 2025? Jun 16 $20 $0 +0%
Will Mohamed Salah win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Jun 15 $20 $0 +0%
Will the Milwaukee Brewers win the 2025 National League Championship? Jun 12 $20 $0 +1%
Will Josh Gottheimer win the 2025 Democratic Primary for governor of N Jun 12 $19 $0 +1%
Will the St. Louis Cardinals win the 2025 World Series? Jun 10 $19 $0 +0%
Will Abdel Fattah el-Sisi be the first leader out in 2025? Jun 09 $19 $0 -0%
Will Palmeiras win the FIFA Club World Cup? Jun 09 $20 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 81¢ $36 0m
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 82¢ $37 1h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $37 27h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $37 29h
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 44¢ $18 15d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY No 44¢ $18 15d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 78¢ $16 15d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 77¢ $16 15d
Iran leadership change by June 30? SELL Yes 6¢ $2 16d
Iran leadership change by June 30? BUY Yes 5¢ $2 16d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 19¢ $2 16d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 19¢ $5 16d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 19¢ $7 16d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL No 96¢ $36 16d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY No 96¢ $36 16d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $36 18d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $36 18d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 97¢ $33 18d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 97¢ $33 18d
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? SELL No 98¢ $18 19d
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? SELL No 98¢ $16 19d
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? BUY No 98¢ $33 19d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL Yes 3¢ $0 19d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL Yes 3¢ $3 19d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY Yes 3¢ $1 19d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY Yes 3¢ $1 19d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 57¢ $11 21d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 57¢ $22 21d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 57¢ $10 21d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 57¢ $23 21d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.50 · official $0.00 (match) · 78 history records