Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T05:38:59+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
16 0x1617…c722 politics 111 markets active 1h ago coverage 112d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$1 (-0%) realized −$1 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR5%break-even
Win rate6%7W / 103L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$323per market
Trades / day2.4pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit66%portable
Net worth$36now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days−$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 46% −$16
politics 39% −$17
sports 8% +$32
crypto 2% $0
economics 2% −$1
world 1% −$1
tech 1% $0
culture 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +5%
net ROI/market (all)-8.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 1 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 103 -2.4% -11.7% 4% 3% -9.6%
all 110 +1.0% -8.6% 6% 5% -9.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.6% 5% -9.5%
10% -17.4% 5% -18.2%
15% -25.4% 3% -26.1%
20% -32.7% 3% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 41% · top 2 65% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
29% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +2% → late -0% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$15 vs −$1 · ×13.94 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.97 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

112d coverage
Net worth$36
Realized−$1
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)6%
Wins / losses7 / 103
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)110 / 111
History coverage112d
Avg bet$323
Trades / day2.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit66%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 110 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? No 100¢ 100¢ $36 $36 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 6 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Iran win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 22 $280 $0 -0%
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 13 $317 −$1 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 06 $262 $0 -0%
Will Portugal win Eurovision 2026? May 06 $331 $0 -0%
Will Laurent Wauquiez win the 2027 French presidential election? May 06 $670 −$1 -0%
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 04 $314 −$1 -0%
Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 03 $600 −$1 -0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 03 $585 −$1 -0%
Will Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson win the 2028 Democratic presidential no May 03 $272 −$1 -0%
Will François Ruffin win the 2027 French presidential election? May 03 $303 $0 -0%
Will JB Pritzker win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 02 $255 −$1 -0%
Will the Toronto Raptors win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 02 $298 −$1 -0%
Will Georgia win Eurovision 2026? May 01 $614 −$1 -0%
Will Butch Ware win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 01 $242 $0 -0%
Will Geraldo Alckmin win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 01 $313 $0 -0%
Will Elise Stefanik win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 30 $244 −$1 -0%
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 27 $250 $0 -0%
Will Juan Branco win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 26 $264 $0 -0%
Will the Miami Dolphins win the 2027 NFL league championship? Apr 26 $263 $0 -0%
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 26 $269 $0 -0%
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 26 $608 −$1 -0%
Will Bulgaria win Eurovision 2026? Apr 24 $305 $0 -0%
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 24 $260 $0 -0%
Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomina Apr 22 $237 $0 -0%
Will Stephen Cloobeck win the California Governor Election in 2026? Apr 22 $328 $0 -0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 22 $317 $0 -0%
Will the New York Jets win the 2027 NFL league championship? Apr 21 $250 $0 -0%
Will Juan Daniel Oviedo win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? Apr 21 $250 $0 -0%
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 20 $238 $0 -0%
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 20 $281 $0 -0%
Will Josh Hawley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 20 $295 $0 -0%
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Apr 20 $570 −$1 -0%
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin Apr 19 $338 $0 -0%
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 19 $325 $0 -0%
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 19 $286 $0 -0%
Will Ségolène Royal win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 19 $611 −$1 -0%
Will Amazon have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? Apr 18 $236 $0 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 18 $316 $0 -0%
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 17 $626 −$1 -0%
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 17 $245 $0 -0%
Will Chris Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 17 $254 $0 -0%
Will Mistral have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? Apr 17 $238 $0 -0%
Will Racing Bulls be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Apr 17 $340 $0 -0%
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 17 $236 $0 -0%
Will Germany win Eurovision 2026? Apr 16 $329 $0 -0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the April 2026 me Apr 16 $236 $0 -0%
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 16 $269 $0 -0%
Will New Zealand win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 16 $669 −$1 -0%
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Apr 15 $239 $0 -0%
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 15 $679 −$1 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $36 1h
Will Iran win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $280 27d
Will Iran win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $280 29d
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $317 35d
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $317 41d
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $262 42d
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $262 42d
Will Portugal win Eurovision 2026? SELL No 100¢ $331 42d
Will Portugal win Eurovision 2026? BUY No 100¢ $331 42d
Will Laurent Wauquiez win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $331 43d
Will Laurent Wauquiez win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $331 43d
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $314 45d
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $314 45d
Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $271 45d
Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $271 45d
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $332 45d
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $332 45d
Will Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson win the 2028 Democratic presidential no SELL No 99¢ $272 45d
Will Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson win the 2028 Democratic presidential no BUY No 99¢ $272 46d
Will François Ruffin win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $302 46d
Will François Ruffin win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $103 46d
Will François Ruffin win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $200 46d
Will JB Pritzker win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 98¢ $255 46d
Will JB Pritzker win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $255 46d
Will the Toronto Raptors win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL No 100¢ $297 46d
Will the Toronto Raptors win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY No 100¢ $298 47d
Will Georgia win Eurovision 2026? SELL No 100¢ $263 47d
Will Georgia win Eurovision 2026? BUY No 100¢ $263 47d
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $253 47d
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $253 47d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $35.99 · official $35.99 (match) · 322 history records