Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T07:14:23+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

16
0x1617…5125
world · 48 markets active 1h ago
3.5score
+$75 +2%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$76 · open −$1
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$67
Realized+$76
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)60%
Wins / losses28 / 19
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions1
Markets (closed)47 / 48
History coverage521d
Avg bet$69
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown17%
Kalshi-fit85%
Chart Positions 1 History 47 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$3
7 days+$28
14 days+$29
30 days+$26
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? Yes 58¢ 57¢ $67 $67 −$1 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 13 $60 +$1 +2%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 12 $58 +$1 +2%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? Jun 11 $47 $0 -0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 11 $46 +$24 +52%
Israel closes its airspace by June 9? Jun 08 $4 +$1 +15%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 07 $183 $0 +0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? Jun 05 $36 $0 +1%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 05 $51 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 05 $116 $0 -0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 01 $12 +$1 +8%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 26 $61 +$1 +1%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? May 25 $42 +$2 +4%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 25 $21 −$1 -6%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? May 25 $55 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? May 25 $92 −$1 -1%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? May 24 $41 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 24 $44 −$3 -8%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 22 $38 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 21 $41 +$1 +2%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? May 20 $81 $0 -0%
Will the Carolina Panthers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Apr 27 $274 $0 +0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Apr 25 $41 $0 +0%
Will Rafael López Aliaga win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Apr 25 $518 $0 +0%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 25 $14 −$2 -12%
Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 24 $250 $0 +0%
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 24 $61 $0 +0%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 23 $249 $0 +0%
Will Lorenzo Musetti win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 23 $249 $0 +0%
No change in Fed interest rates after June 2025 meeting? Jun 19 $0 $0 -100%
Will Lee Jae-myung win 2nd place in the South Korean presidential elec Jun 04 $2 $0 +4%
Will the price of Ethereum be greater than $2800 on May 23? May 24 $2 $0 +2%
Trump ends Ukraine war in first 90 days? Apr 25 $1 $0 +1%
Will the Indiana Pacers win the Eastern Conference? Mar 29 $64 $0 -1%
Will the LA Clippers win the 2025 NBA Finals? Mar 24 $63 +$1 +1%
Will the CDU/CSU win less than 26% of the vote in the German election? Mar 20 $60 +$1 +1%
Will 'The Fantastic Four: First Steps' have the best domestic opening Feb 28 $3 −$1 -33%
Old Dominion vs. Marshall Feb 25 $62 −$1 -2%
Sacred Heart vs. Saint Peter's Feb 25 $6 −$6 -100%
Will the AfD win between 20% and 22% of the vote in the German electio Feb 25 $23 +$37 +161%
Will 'Superman' have the best domestic opening weekend in 2025? Feb 23 $31 $0 +0%
Trail Blazers vs. Timberwolves Feb 21 $5 −$5 -100%
Toledo vs. Miami (OH) Feb 21 $16 +$15 +88%
Will 'The Brutalist' win Best Cinematography in the 2025 Critics' Choi Feb 09 $5 +$8 +170%
Will the highest temperature in NYC be between 29-30°F on January 25? Feb 06 $15 +$1 +6%
Will Trump appeal his hush money conviction? Jan 25 $11 $0 +1%
Mungo vs. MINH Jan 24 $16 $0 +0%
Will the December 2024 temperature increase be between 1.25-1.29°C? Jan 10 $11 +$2 +20%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
world 33% +$34
sports 21% +$1
politics 19% +$39
other 18% −$1
economics 8% $0
finance 1% $0
weather 1% +$3
crypto 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 58¢ $3 1h
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 58¢ $64 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 85¢ $61 5h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 83¢ $36 8h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 83¢ $24 8h
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 90¢ $10 19h
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 90¢ $10 19h
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 90¢ $40 19h
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY No 88¢ $58 22h
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $4 44h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 4¢ $1 2d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 4¢ $1 2d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 4¢ $1 2d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 4¢ $1 2d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 4¢ $2 2d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 3¢ $4 2d
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $43 3d
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $47 3d
Israel closes its airspace by June 9? SELL Yes 3¢ $5 4d
Israel closes its airspace by June 9? BUY Yes 3¢ $4 4d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 81¢ $24 5d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 81¢ $33 5d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 81¢ $57 6d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $5 7d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $30 7d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $2 7d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? BUY No 96¢ $36 7d
Iran leadership change by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $47 7d
Iran leadership change by June 30? BUY No 96¢ $47 7d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 19¢ $12 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +13%
net ROI/market (all)-6.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 +12.0% +1.3% 83% 33% -3.3%
≤30d 20 +3.6% -6.3% 65% 10% -7.4%
≤90d 28 +2.2% -7.6% 57% 7% -8.7%
all 47 +3.8% -6.0% 60% 13% -7.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -6.0% 13% -7.4%
10% -15.0% 9% -16.2%
15% -23.2% 9% -24.3%
20% -30.8% 9% -31.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $66.70 · official $66.70 (match) · 197 history records